The Fifth Down blog features an article about a new phone app, one that says it will give you the winning chances of every play during the game. In the article, we get this little gem:

According to his analysis, a team that returns a kickoff to its 40-yard line can be expected to score an average of 3 more points on the drive than if it had started at the 20-yard line.

“If you make it to the 40, you essentially just made a field goal, even if you don’t realize that immediately,” Bessire said.

I seriously doubt this. 3 points * 100 yards / 20 yards = 15 points. I don’t know of anyone who scales an expected points curve to be worth 15 points. I don’t know of a single reliable EP solution with slopes routinely greater than 0.08 points per yard in between the 20 yard lines.

You pay your money, and you take your chances. Simply put, I can’t recommend this app.

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