Things that are easy to note: the teams with at least 9 wins are either guaranteed a playoff birth, or have, at worst, a 99% chance of making the playoffs. The teams with 8 wins have a very good chance of entering the playoffs. Those teams with 7 wins have at least a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Those with 6 wins have between a 5% to 30% chance of making the playoffs. Let’s say they are hoping to get in.

Data from week 12


Data from week 13


The methodology of these stats is discussed in previous posts in this series. If you’re wondering where I’m getting odds to go into the playoffs, see this post. If you’re wondering what chance your team has of winning in the playoffs, see this post on my logistic regression methods, based on studies of playoff games. How would your ranking in the playoffs affect your chances of getting into the Super Bowl? We studied that here.

I am not a proponent of the notion that regular season offensive stats are predictive in the post season. My studies suggest p on the order of 0.15 for offensive stats in the post season, and thus aren’t predictive enough for my tastes ( p <= 0.05). That hasn't stopped Football Outsiders from pretending that their proprietary stats are predictive and calculating playoff odds with their tools.

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