Though the results for the divisional round are embedded in the image of my playoff spreadsheet in my previous article, the table below is certainly easier to read.


Divisional Playoff Round
Home Team Visiting Team Home Win Pct Est. Point Spread
DEN BAL 0.477 -0.7
NE HOU 0.638 4.2
ATL SEA 0.462 -1.1
SF GB 0.700 6.3


I suspect other systems will rank Seattle as stronger than mine does, and Baltimore as weaker. That said, the Vegas line as of this Sunday gives Atlanta a 2 point advantage over Seattle, and my system slightly favors Seattle. We can calculate odds and points via other mechanisms, say, Pythagoreans, SRS and median point spreads, and if we do, what do we get?


Atlanta Versus Seattle
Technique Home Win Pct Est. Point Spread
Median Point Spread 0.632 4.0
Simple Ranking System 0.407 -2.8
Pythagorean Expectation 0.486 -0.4


Certainly different systems yield different emphases. For me, the one lasting impression I had was the Washington Seattle game was an almost picture perfect demonstration that home field advantage is strongest in the first quarter.

Of all the teams playing, my system likes San Francisco the best. I suspect it likes it more than others. We’ll learn more as other analytics oriented folks post their odds for the divisional round.

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