I’m trying to get a handle on the new season of play, particularly teams that are playing better than expected and those that are playing worse. In Atlanta, quite a few fans have zoned in on the offense, in particular the right guard and right tackle play, and are subsequently using the inability of Thomas Dimitroff to refurbish the lines as a critique (including the “should we have drafted Julio Jones” trope).

None of my further analysis will answer any of those questions, but they’ll set a baseline we can use.

Atlanta Falcons SRS OSRS DSRS
Year Team W L T SRS OSRS DSRS MOV SOS
2009 ATL 9 7 0 5.03 2.78 2.25 2.38 2.66
2010 ATL 13 3 0 6.09 2.05 4.04 7.88 -1.79
2011 ATL 10 6 0 3.53 3.22 0.30 3.25 0.28
2012 ATL 13 3 0 6.44 3.53 2.91 7.50 -1.06
4 Year Avg Performance
AVG ATL 11 5 0 5.27 2.90 2.37 5.25 0.02
2013 Season through 10/15
2013 ATL 1 4 0 -1.80 1.35 -3.15 -2.40 0.60

 

Though some fall off on offensive is observed, the greater fall off is on defense. Two themes are notable at this time. First, the relative lack of pass rush on Atlanta’s part (though this has been an persistent issue with this club for anyone not named John Abraham). The second issue has to be injuries in the back 7 and the resultant use of rookies at linebacker and in the secondary. In conclusion, the Falcons’ problems have been relatively mild on the offensive side.* The Falcons have to solve their defensive woes first.

* As Julio Jones’s injury was really in the last of the five games above, the effect of his absence is really not a part of the stats so far.

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