Much as in the previous series, we’re going to analyze the playoff prospects of New Orleans and Detroit. We’re also going to post the code (very hacky) that I’ve been using to study playoff teams. The code (2 pics required) is as follows:
Now one thing about this code, because it’s using Getopts::Long, numbers have to be positive or else this code will think that the number is an option. The simple fix is to find the value of the most negative SOS and add a positive number equal in magnitude to both SOSs. As the only important value is the difference, this is a valid form of data entry.
Ok, the significant factors, plus Pythagoreans:
Detroit: No playoff exp, Away, SOS = 0.63, Pythagorean 62.9%
New Orleans: Won Super Bowl 2 years ago, Home, SOS = -1.60, Pythagorean 77.7%
Because NO’s SOS is negative, just let it equal zero and add 1.60 to the SOS of Detroit, yielding 2.23. That’s the info you would pump into the calculator above. And it gives you the following results:
New Orlean’s advantage due to playoff experience alone give NO a 68% chance of winning.
Adding in home field advantage give New Orleans a 76% chance of winning.
Adding in strength of schedule reduces New Orleans chances to 69%. New Orleans is heavily favored.
By comparison, after all is said and done, had Atlanta been slotted into this game, the playoff calculator gives Atlanta a 51% chance of winning. Atlanta has a slightly better SOS than Detroit, and it also has recent playoff experience.
Given how powerful the New Orleans offense is, should Atlanta have sought out a team with a weaker offense, such as New York? That’s one of the counterintuitive points of my previous playoff analysis. Offensive metrics tend to yield a p of 0.15, not 0.05. They’re suggestive, not etched in stone advantages. New Orleans’ powerful offense may come into play, but then again, it may not.