In the jpeg below, there are some useful 2010 NFL stats.
Median is the median point spread from 2010. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin metric. I’m not as fond of either of these as I was when I was implementing them. I think that an optimized Pythagorean expectation is a more predictive metric than either of those two. Pythagoreans are in the PRED column, expressed as a winning percentage. Multiply the percentage by 16 to get predicted wins for 2011. SRS, MOV, and SOS are Pro Football Reference’s simple ranking system metrics. SOS is a factor in playoff wins, along with previous playoff experience. Home field advantage is calculated from the Homemade Sagarin metric. Take it for what it’s worth. Other topside metrics are calculated with the Perl CPAN module Sport::Analytics::SimpleRanking, which I authored. The HS was implemented using Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats.