This is the week 5 edition of my NFL stats. Median is the median point spread, HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented through Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats module. Pct is the calculated win percentage, Pred is the Pythagorean expectation for the various teams. SRS, MOV, and SOS are the simple ranking statistics, as calculated by this module.
To note the potential value of a median point spread, please compare the median point spread of San Francisco to the MOV and Pythagorean expectations. It is relatively insensitive to one or two blowouts. Green Bay, by contrast, has a median point spread and a MOV far more closely aligned. Kansas City, notably, has a median point spread much better than the team MOV.