To repeat the nature of these stats, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.
Baltimore, by many measures, is now the #1 team in all of football, despite Green Bay’s 6-0 record. I’d tend to favor Green Bay in any matchup, because Aaron Rogers has been playing in an exceptional groove since about mid 2010. He evokes statements from QB savvy commenters like Trent Dilfer about how phenomenal his ball placement is.
In contrast to Baltimore, look at Kansas City. By many measures this team is one of the worst in football. But they are at 2-3, a better record than Philadelphia, and I suspect the stats of the day aren’t particularly good at handling teams that start poorly but improve. Stats are tools, no more, and anyone who has ever read, say, “The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind” can tell you, one man’s junk is another man’s wind powered electric generator.
Or, as Dallas Operator 7G once said, it’s not the wand, it’s the wizard.