Playoff experience is a potent effect, enough to overcome Denver’s advantages in home field and tougher schedule.
Steelers: Super Bowl last year, Away, SOS = -0.84, Pythagorean = 71.8%
Broncos: Last in playoffs 2005, Home, SOS = -0.23, Pythagorean = 35.3%
Typically in playoff games, you don’t see huge differences in offensive stats, because the teams that make it in the modern NFL tend to be good offensive teams.But Denver is nearly as bad this year as Seattle was last year (Seattle actually was worse, with a Pythagorean of 32.7%). Treating this as a regular season game, instead of a playoff game would give PIT a 76% edge. Instead, using the playoff formula, PIT would be favored by 54%.