Week 4 of my NFL stats:
To explain the columns above, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components, analyzed via this Perl implementation. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.
Houston, by far, is the best team by these statistical measures. The second best team is a pick ’em between Atlanta, Arizona, Chicago, and San Francisco. The Tennessee Titans might look awful in some statistical measures, but they appear to have played the toughest opposition so far. Philadelphia is the tail ender of the 3-1 teams, and Dallas and/or the Jets are tail ending the 2-2 teams. Don’t read too much into early blowouts at this stage, for any team. Those things tend to even out over time.