Week 5, NFL scoring stats:
To explain the columns above, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components, analyzed via this Perl implementation. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.
Houston is still the darling of all the scoring stats. New Orleans has now won a game. The record of the Saints is now more reflective of the ball they are playing. Atlanta fans may be wondering what happened to a 5-0 team, and the answer is nothing. They’re playing more or less as they were, but Chicago and San Francisco had big wins. With stats easily changed by one or two blowout wins, you have to expect some of the unexpected.
The toughest schedules so far? Green Bay, Jacksonville, Dallas, Saint Louis, and Indianapolis.