Week 7, NFL scoring stats:
To explain the columns above, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components, analyzed via this Perl implementation. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.
One of the things dogging Atlanta sports talk radio is “just how good are the Atlanta Falcons”? Statistically, they’re in the top 5-10 but not the very top in the various scoring stats. A lot of their success is based on turnover differential, not a good predictor of success over the long term. The Houston Texans, by contrast, shook off their one game blues are are back in the top 2 or 3 once again.
Chicago for now is at the head of the scoring stats, and those of us familiar with Jay Cutler’s ability to have really bad games will be watching to see if he can keep it up. Coming hard are both the Giants and the Packers. Denver is the best looking of the 3-3 teams.