##
Is DVOA just a kind of normalized “adjusted net success rate per attempt”?

Posted by foodnearsnellville under

Football,

Modeling | Tags:

adjusted yards per attempt,

AY/A,

DVOA,

expected points,

scoring models |

1 Comment
Ok, this whole article is a kind of speculation on my part. DVOA is generally sold as a kind of generalization of the success rate concept, translated into a percentage above (or below) the norm. Components of DVOA include success rate, turnover adjustments, and scoring adjustments. For now, that’s enough to consider.

Adjusted yards per attempt, as we’ve shown, is derived from scoring models, in particular expected points models, and could be considered to be the linearization of a decidedly nonlinear EP curve. But if I wanted to, I could call AYA style stats the generalization of the yardage concept, one in which scoring and turnovers are all folded into a single number valued in terms of yards per attempt.

So, if I were to take AYA or its fancier cousin ANYA, and replace yards with success rate, and then refactor turnovers and scoring so that turnovers and scoring were *scaled appropriately*, I would end up with something like the “V” in DVOA. I could then add a SRS style defensive adjustment, and now I have “DV”. If I now calculate an average, and normalize all terms relative to my average, I’d end up with “Homemade DVOA”, wouldn’t I?

The point is, AYA or ANYA formulas are not really yardage stats, they are scoring stats whose units are in yards. So, if really, DVOA is ANYA in sheep’s clothing, where yardage has been replaced by success rate, with some after the fact defense adjustments and normalization from success rate “units”.. well, yes, then DVOA is a scoring stat, a kind of sophisticated and normalized “adjusted net success rate per attempt”.

### Like this:

Like Loading...

*Related*

January 3, 2013 at 9:59 am

[…] spoken about the potential relationships between success rates and stats like DVOA here, but to make any progress, you need to consider possible relationships between successes and yards. […]