Detroit for me is a puzzling team, I suspect in part it is because casual fans watching football in Georgia expected Matthew Stafford to mature into a leading NFL quarterback. That he’s become a good quarterback is given, but I guess the hope he would be a modern day Bobby Layne hasn’t left those of us living in the Southeast.

Detroit Lions 2005-2013
Year Team W L T SRS OSRS DSRS MOV SOS
2005 DET 5 11 0 -6.70 -5.75 -0.95 -5.69 -1.01
2006 DET 3 13 0 -6.35 -1.82 -4.53 -5.81 -0.54
2007 DET 7 9 0 -3.55 1.14 -4.69 -6.12 2.57
2008 DET 0 16 0 -13.11 -2.81 -10.30 -15.56 2.45
2009 DET 2 14 0 -14.38 -4.97 -9.41 -14.50 0.12
2010 DET 6 10 0 1.91 0.72 1.19 -0.44 2.35
2011 DET 10 6 0 6.07 8.07 -2.01 5.44 0.63
2012 DET 4 12 0 -2.31 0.59 -2.89 -4.06 1.76
2013 DET 4 3 0 0.75 3.54 -2.79 2.71 -1.96

 

Detroit hosts Dallas this weekend and not at all surprisingly, for two teams fairly closely matched, the three predictive systems yield three different results. Pythagoreans have Dallas and Detroit as essentially even. Simple rankings would suggest that Dallas has a slight edge. Medians suggest the opposite, that Detroit will win by about 5 points.

Odds of Detroit Winning and Predicted Point Spread.
Pythagorean Expectation Simple Ranking System Median Analysis
Pct Points Pct Points Pct Points
0.49 -0.3 0.40 -3.0 0.66 5