To start, a summary of the 2014 regular season data:
This gives us the basis to generate playoff values based on my playoff formula. Playoff Odds are calculated according to this model:
logit P = 0.668 + 0.348*(delta SOS) + 0.434*(delta Playoff Experience)
and the results are:
| 2014 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Playoff Model Worksheet. | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC | ||||||
| Rank | Name | Home Field Advantage | Prev. Playoff Experience | Strength of Schedule | Total Score | |
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 0.406 | 0.434 | 0.275 | 1.115 | |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 0.406 | 0.434 | -0.118 | 0.722 | |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys | 0.406 | 0.0 | -0.630 | -0.224 | |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | 0.406 | 0.434 | -0.292 | 0.548 | |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.449 | 0.449 | |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.132 | -0.132 | |
| AFC | ||||||
| 1 | NE Patriots | 0.406 | 0.434 | 0.438 | 1.278 | |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 0.406 | 0.434 | 0.550 | 1.390 | |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.406 | 0.0 | -0.703 | -0.297 | |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 0.406 | 0.434 | -0.393 | 0.447 | |
| 5 | Cinncinnati Bengals | 0.0 | 0.434 | -0.202 | -0.602 | |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.724 | -0.724 | |
The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.
For the second week of the 2014 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view.
| Second Round Playoff Odds | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Team | Visiting Team | Score Diff | Win Prob | Est. Point Spread | ||
| Seattle Seahawks | Carolina Panthers | 0.567 | 0.638 | 4.2 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys | 1.352 | 0.795 | 10.0 | ||
| New England Patriots | Baltimore Ravens | 2.002 | 0.881 | 14.8 | ||
| Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | 1.349 | 0.794 | 10.0 | ||
Baltimore is not given much of a chance by these techniques, but an interesting analysis by Benjamin Morris of Skeptical Sports (featured now on fivethirtyeight.com) is worth paying attention to. Though the divisional round is hard on teams without a bye, those that survive appear to have a superior chance to go forward in the playoffs. Benjamin has always struck me as an incisive analyst, so he’s absolutely worth paying attention to.
