To start, a summary of the 2014 regular season data:

2014-regular-season-stats

This gives us the basis to generate playoff values based on my playoff formula. Playoff Odds are calculated according to this model:

logit P = 0.668 + 0.348*(delta SOS) + 0.434*(delta Playoff Experience)

and the results are:

2014 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Playoff Model Worksheet.
NFC
Rank Name Home Field Advantage Prev. Playoff Experience Strength of Schedule Total Score
1 Seattle Seahawks 0.406 0.434 0.275 1.115
2 Green Bay Packers 0.406 0.434 -0.118 0.722
3 Dallas Cowboys 0.406 0.0 -0.630 -0.224
4 Carolina Panthers 0.406 0.434 -0.292 0.548
5 Arizona Cardinals 0.0 0.0 0.449 0.449
6 Detroit Lions 0.0 0.0 -0.132 -0.132
AFC
1 NE Patriots 0.406 0.434 0.438 1.278
2 Denver Broncos 0.406 0.434 0.550 1.390
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.406 0.0 -0.703 -0.297
4 Indianapolis Colts 0.406 0.434 -0.393 0.447
5 Cinncinnati Bengals 0.0 0.434 -0.202 -0.602
6 Baltimore Ravens 0.0 0.0 -0.724 -0.724

 

The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

For the second week of the 2014 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers 0.567 0.638 4.2
Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys 1.352 0.795 10.0
New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens 2.002 0.881 14.8
Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts 1.349 0.794 10.0

 

Baltimore is not given much of a chance by these techniques, but an interesting analysis by Benjamin Morris of Skeptical Sports (featured now on fivethirtyeight.com) is worth paying attention to. Though the divisional round is hard on teams without a bye, those that survive appear to have a superior chance to go forward in the playoffs. Benjamin has always struck me as an incisive analyst, so he’s absolutely worth paying attention to.