The cumulative stats for the 2015 regular season are:

2015-regular-season-stats

This gives us the basis to generate playoff values based on my playoff formula. Playoff Odds are calculated according to this model:

logit P = 0.668 + 0.348*(delta SOS) + 0.434*(delta Playoff Experience)

and the results are:

2015 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank Name Home Field Adv Playoff Experience SOS Total Score
1 Carolina Panthers 0.406 0.434 -1.35 -0.51
2 Arizona Cardinals 0.406 0.434 0.456 1.296
3 Minnesota Vikings 0.406 0.0 0.654 1.06
4 Washington Redskins 0.406 0.0 -0.866 -0.46
5 Green Bay Packers 0.0 0.434 0.863 1.297
6 Seattle Seahawks 0.0 0.434 0.769 1.203
AFC
1 Denver Broncos 0.406 0.434 0.727 1.567
2 NE Patriots 0.406 0.434 -0.839 0.001
3 Cinncinnati Bengals 0.406 0.434 0.661 1.501
4 Houston Texans 0.406 0.0 -0.828 -0.422
5 Kansas City Chiefs 0.0 0.0 0.564 0.564
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.0 0.434 0.696 1.130

 

The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

 

For the first week of the 2014 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks -0.143 0.464 -1.05
Washington Redskins Green Bay Packers -1.757 0.147 -13.0
Cinncinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers 0.371 0.591 2.75
Houston Texans Kansas City Chiefs -0.986 0.271 -7.30

 

So the system suggests that Minnesota – Seattle should be close, perhaps unbettable. Cinncinnati-Pittsburgh is an even match, with Cinncinnati’s factors amounting to a typical home field advantage. Houston-Kansas City and Washington-GB are predicted to be easy wins for the visiting team.

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