October 2016


Washington and Detroit played down to the wire, Arizona and Seattle played to an amazing tie, and Minnesota was beaten for the first time. Philadelphia is at the top of most offensive stats at the moment. Oakland somehow stays in the winning column.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
107        61        27.62         17.64      9.98

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.59


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      11.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  78.4  10.37   9.86  0.51
2     DAL     10.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  73.6   5.99   8.67 -2.68
3     MIN     10.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  75.3   8.01   7.50  0.51
4     SEA      2.0     6   4   1   1  75.0  67.3   2.86   4.50 -1.64
5     DEN     12.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  71.6   5.88   7.14 -1.26
6     OAK      1.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  52.1  -0.54   0.86 -1.40
7     PHI     13.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  81.5  10.63  11.33 -0.70
8     KC       6.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  56.5   1.29   2.17 -0.87
9     GB       5.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  58.3   2.17   2.83 -0.66
10    BUF     11.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  71.6   6.97   8.00 -1.03
11    PIT      8.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  58.0   5.01   2.86  2.15
12    ATL      7.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  59.0   4.44   4.29  0.15
13    HOU      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  32.9  -3.74  -5.29  1.54
14    WAS      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  48.8   0.73  -0.43  1.16
15    DET      1.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  50.0  -0.86   0.00 -0.86
16    NYG      1.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  46.2  -0.21  -1.14  0.93
17    ARI      0.0     7   3   3   1  50.0  72.2   6.26   7.00 -0.74
18    TB      -1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  36.3  -5.12  -5.17  0.05
19    SD      -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  56.9   2.52   3.00 -0.48
20    BAL     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  47.1  -3.33  -0.86 -2.47
21    MIA     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  44.5  -0.28  -1.86  1.58
22    IND     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  48.0  -3.23  -0.86 -2.37
23    LA      -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  34.4  -4.77  -4.86  0.09
24    TEN     -7.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  43.7  -3.54  -2.14 -1.40
25    CIN     -8.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  40.6  -1.48  -3.14  1.66
26    NO      -2.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  43.4  -2.29  -3.17  0.88
27    JAX     -3.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  30.7  -8.90  -7.17 -1.73
28    NYJ    -10.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  25.5  -6.20  -8.71  2.51
29    CAR     -3.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  44.2  -2.23  -2.50  0.27
30    CHI     -9.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  25.2  -7.99  -8.29  0.29
31    SF     -17.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  25.2  -9.29 -10.71  1.42
32    CLE    -11.0     7   0   7   0   0.0  23.0  -9.13 -11.00  1.87
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Is it too early to look at playoff possibilities?  If nothing else, they give a guide as to what kind of final records teams might expect.

Atlanta deserves better from the refs.

And, if no one can make up their minds about Dak and Romo, would Romo as a modern day Charlie Conerly suffice?

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
92         53        27.97         17.90     10.07

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.60

Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     MIN     12.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  83.9  10.43  11.20 -0.77
2     NE      12.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  78.3   9.77   9.67  0.10
3     DAL     10.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  73.7   6.62   8.67 -2.05
4     SEA      2.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  68.4   1.88   5.40 -3.52
5     BUF     13.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  76.4   9.32   9.83 -0.52
6     PIT     13.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  64.2   4.81   5.17 -0.36
7     ATL      7.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  61.6   3.80   5.50 -1.70
8     DEN      6.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  66.3   2.93   5.33 -2.40
9     HOU      5.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  39.6  -2.00  -3.17  1.17
10    WAS      4.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  50.0   2.28   0.00  2.28
11    OAK      1.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  45.5  -1.82  -1.83  0.01
12    PHI     15.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  80.6   9.64  11.40 -1.76
13    KC       6.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  54.3   0.11   1.40 -1.29
14    GB       4.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  50.6   2.04   0.20  1.84
15    ARI      5.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  73.2   6.76   8.17 -1.40
16    BAL      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  51.1  -0.37   0.33 -0.70
17    LA       0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  36.1  -4.25  -4.50  0.25
18    DET      0.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  48.7  -1.48  -0.50 -0.98
19    NYG     -0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  42.2   0.60  -2.50  3.10
20    TEN     -3.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  46.3  -1.94  -1.17 -0.77
21    NO      -1.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  44.8  -2.42  -2.60  0.18
22    JAX     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  35.5  -6.96  -5.20 -1.76
23    TB      -5.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  25.5  -8.26  -9.60  1.34
24    SD      -2.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  57.1   0.88   3.00 -2.12
25    IND     -3.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  44.6  -4.57  -2.33 -2.24
26    MIA     -4.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  41.8  -2.14  -2.67  0.53
27    CIN    -10.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  32.3  -3.72  -6.00  2.28
28    CAR     -3.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  44.2  -2.54  -2.50 -0.04
29    CHI     -7.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  28.8  -6.79  -7.00  0.21
30    NYJ    -14.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  19.5  -8.31 -11.50  3.19
31    SF     -15.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  27.3  -6.70  -9.67  2.97
32    CLE     -8.5     6   0   6   0   0.0  24.0  -7.63 -10.50  2.87

Another week, another improvement in the stability of the simple rankings. Minnesota is slowly getting better, Atlanta has an upset win over Denver, and Tampa Bay an upset over Carolina. Dallas steamrollered Cincinnati, setting up an interesting early season match against Green Bay this upcoming Sunday.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
77         41        27.73         17.65     10.08

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.94

Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     MIN     12.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  86.7  11.30  11.20  0.10
2     PIT     18.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  76.5   9.62   9.20  0.42
3     DEN     12.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  75.3   6.67   8.00 -1.33
4     ATL      7.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  65.8   6.60   7.00 -0.40
5     DAL      7.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  73.6   4.74   7.60 -2.86
6     NE       7.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  78.1   5.40   8.00 -2.60
7     OAK      1.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  52.6   1.23   1.00  0.23
8     PHI     17.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  91.6  14.70  16.00 -1.30
9     SEA      6.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  75.4  -0.30   6.25 -6.55
10    GB       5.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  62.0   5.01   3.75  1.26
11    BUF     11.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  70.5   4.92   6.00 -1.08
12    HOU      7.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  33.2  -2.90  -4.40  1.50
13    LA       4.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  32.0  -5.86  -4.80 -1.06
14    WAS      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  45.7  -0.83  -1.40  0.57
15    BAL      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  54.8  -1.13   1.20 -2.33
16    KC      -0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  42.5  -2.48  -2.25 -0.23
17    DET     -1.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  46.4   0.74  -1.20  1.94
18    ARI     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  65.2   3.09   4.80 -1.71
19    NYG     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  36.1  -0.21  -3.80  3.59
20    IND     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  44.3  -3.30  -2.20 -1.10
21    TB      -5.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  22.9  -7.52  -9.60  2.08
22    TEN     -7.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  43.2  -1.32  -1.80  0.48
23    CIN     -8.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  37.2  -2.37  -3.60  1.23
24    NO      -2.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  40.5  -2.27  -4.00  1.73
25    JAX     -3.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  30.6  -6.79  -6.75 -0.04
26    SD      -3.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  55.0  -0.72   2.00 -2.72
27    CAR     -3.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  43.2  -0.09  -2.40  2.31
28    MIA     -7.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  29.2  -7.95  -6.20 -1.75
29    CHI     -9.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  23.9  -5.41  -8.20  2.79
30    NYJ    -10.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  24.1  -6.92  -8.80  1.88
31    SF     -12.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  33.6  -5.48  -5.80  0.32
32    CLE    -11.0     5   0   5   0   0.0  17.3 -10.16 -12.20  2.04

I noted with some satisfaction that the wild SOS values have begun to calm down, and the spread of values is now a bit more realistic. Teams have begun to have bye weeks, so it’s better to look at winning percentage than total wins. I have to say I enjoyed the Minnesota game last night. If Sam Bradford remains healthy, is he the 21st century equivalent of Jim Plunkett?

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
63         34        27.83         17.71     10.11

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.32


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI     19.0     3   3   0   0 100.0  98.3  22.58  21.67  0.91
2     DEN     13.0     4   4   0   0 100.0  86.2   8.51  11.75 -3.24
3     MIN     10.5     4   4   0   0 100.0  86.8   8.43   9.50 -1.07
4     PIT     15.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  73.1  12.64   7.00  5.64
5     ATL     10.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  66.3   3.43   7.00 -3.57
6     HOU      7.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  45.3  -2.51  -1.00 -1.51
7     SEA      6.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  78.0   1.58   6.25 -4.67
8     DAL      5.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  71.1   3.30   6.00 -2.70
9     NE       4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  72.0   5.12   5.00  0.12
10    LA       4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  34.9  -6.33  -3.25 -3.08
11    BAL      3.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  62.5   0.64   3.00 -2.36
12    OAK      1.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  51.6  -0.92   0.50 -1.42
13    GB       4.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  59.3   0.88   2.67 -1.79
14    BUF      4.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  69.4   5.39   4.75  0.64
15    KC      -0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  41.5  -1.26  -2.25  0.99
16    NYG     -0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  37.6  -1.35  -3.00  1.65
17    WAS     -1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  39.9  -1.01  -3.25  2.24
18    CIN     -3.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  45.9   2.24  -1.00  3.24
19    NO      -2.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  39.3  -4.12  -4.00 -0.12
20    DET     -2.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  44.1  -5.50  -1.75 -3.75
21    SD      -2.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  59.3  -1.66   3.25 -4.91
22    ARI     -3.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  61.4   1.29   3.00 -1.71
23    JAX     -3.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  28.4  -8.28  -6.75 -1.53
24    IND     -3.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  38.1  -5.98  -4.25 -1.73
25    MIA     -4.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  32.1  -3.67  -4.50  0.83
26    NYJ     -5.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  28.0  -4.51  -6.50  1.99
27    CAR     -6.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  43.4   1.80  -2.25  4.05
28    TEN     -7.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  26.7  -5.63  -5.50 -0.13
29    CHI    -11.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  18.4  -4.28  -8.75  4.47
30    TB     -12.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  15.6 -11.02 -12.75  1.73
31    SF     -13.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  36.0  -4.16  -4.25  0.09
32    CLE     -8.5     4   0   4   0   0.0  18.8  -5.61 -10.25  4.64