The odds that teams like Oakland and Dallas make the playoffs are getting larger, but what can’t be predicted is where in the ranking (1-6) they will be. At this point, Washington could still win the NFC East. Philadelphia could tie, I guess, though the absence of 3 good receivers really does hamper them.

It’s hard to understand Oakland’s success until you split the season in two. The first half was luck. The last half has been offensive dominance, OSRS over 11, best in league over that period of time.

Given that Dallas has playoff experience in 2014 and not in 2015, I have new formulas for playoff odds, based on adding four more years of data. Those will be published in the near future.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
177       101     57.1      27.48        18.02      9.46

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.45

Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      7.0    11  10   1   0  90.9  79.6   7.74   9.36 -1.63
2     NE      11.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  79.7   7.10   8.73 -1.62
3     OAK      3.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  59.4   3.86   2.91  0.95
4     KC       5.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  63.7   3.42   3.45 -0.03
5     NYG      3.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  57.0   0.75   1.64 -0.88
6     SEA      2.0    11   7   3   1  68.2  65.1   3.72   3.36  0.35
7     ATL      7.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  64.3   7.27   5.09  2.18
8     MIA      4.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  53.2  -0.59   0.82 -1.40
9     DET      3.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  53.2  -1.28   0.82 -2.10
10    DEN      2.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  66.2   5.72   4.27  1.44
11    WAS      2.0    11   6   4   1  59.1  55.1   2.38   1.45  0.92
12    PIT      8.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  65.1   4.09   4.00  0.09
13    BUF      4.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  64.6   2.95   4.09 -1.15
14    MIN      3.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  60.8   1.60   2.36 -0.77
15    HOU      3.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  33.7  -3.64  -3.82  0.18
16    TB       2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  45.0  -0.48  -1.36  0.88
17    BAL      2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  57.0  -0.02   1.55 -1.56
18    TEN     -3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.4  -1.77   1.00 -2.77
19    NO      -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  57.2   3.78   2.45  1.33
20    SD      -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  56.3   3.12   2.00  1.12
21    GB      -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  45.4  -1.27  -1.36  0.10
22    PHI     -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  64.7   4.19   3.73  0.46
23    IND     -3.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  40.7  -3.68  -2.82 -0.86
24    ARI     -2.0    11   4   6   1  40.9  56.2   0.92   1.55 -0.63
25    CAR     -3.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  48.5   0.89  -0.45  1.35
26    LA      -3.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  24.4  -6.38  -6.00 -0.38
27    CIN     -4.0    11   3   7   1  31.8  38.2  -1.79  -2.91  1.12
28    NYJ     -4.0    11   3   8   0  27.3  25.9  -6.20  -6.36  0.17
29    JAX     -5.0    11   2   9   0  18.2  25.3  -7.79  -7.18 -0.60
30    CHI     -6.0    11   2   9   0  18.2  20.4  -8.33  -7.82 -0.51
31    SF     -13.0    11   1  10   0   9.1  19.5  -8.68 -10.55  1.87
32    CLE    -14.0    12   0  12   0   0.0  11.9 -11.59 -12.92  1.32