December 2016


I wasn’t around for week 15 because of the holidays, so I will be adding a couple weeks of data today.

So week 15 is below:

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       126     56.2      27.38        17.45      9.93

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.47


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      12.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  82.6   7.28   9.43 -2.15
2     DAL      6.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  77.1   6.91   7.71 -0.80
3     OAK      3.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  59.9   4.43   2.93  1.50
4     KC       4.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  62.9   4.15   3.21  0.93
5     NYG      3.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  57.3   1.68   1.57  0.11
6     SEA      4.0    14   9   4   1  67.9  69.5   3.09   4.50 -1.41
7     PIT      7.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  67.6   4.97   4.64  0.33
8     ATL      7.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  71.9   8.08   7.93  0.15
9     MIA      3.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  50.3  -2.16   0.07 -2.23
10    DET      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  54.7  -0.09   1.14 -1.24
11    GB       3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.9   2.14   1.71  0.43
12    TB       2.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  47.5   0.40  -0.64  1.04
13    HOU      2.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  36.3  -2.47  -3.14  0.68
14    TEN      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  54.4   0.58   1.21 -0.64
15    BAL      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  62.9   2.24   3.07 -0.83
16    DEN      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  62.5   4.45   2.93  1.52
17    WAS      1.0    14   7   6   1  53.6  50.5   1.32   0.14  1.18
18    IND      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  55.7   1.14   1.64 -0.50
19    BUF      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  61.2   1.55   3.14 -1.60
20    MIN      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.7   0.42   0.36  0.06
21    NO      -1.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  53.0   1.37   1.00  0.37
22    CAR     -2.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  46.2  -0.44  -1.07  0.64
23    ARI     -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  53.9  -0.48   1.07 -1.55
24    CIN     -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  48.5  -0.21  -0.36  0.15
25    SD      -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  50.0   1.59   0.00  1.59
26    PHI     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  54.8   2.25   1.21  1.03
27    NYJ     -4.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  20.4  -9.28  -8.29 -0.99
28    LA      -5.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  14.5  -9.21  -9.36  0.14
29    CHI     -6.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  29.2  -5.37  -5.14 -0.23
30    JAX     -6.0    14   2  12   0  14.3  24.6  -6.19  -7.07  0.88
31    SF     -15.0    14   1  13   0   7.1  15.1 -12.05 -12.14  0.09
32    CLE    -14.0    14   0  14   0   0.0  10.5 -12.06 -13.43  1.37

and week 16 is here:

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       137     57.1      27.67        17.61     10.06

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.30


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      13.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  85.7   8.65  11.33 -2.69
2     DAL      6.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  77.8   8.01   8.60 -0.59
3     OAK      3.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  60.3   4.52   3.27  1.26
4     KC       5.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  67.0   5.26   4.53  0.72
5     ATL      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  72.5   8.47   8.53 -0.06
6     PIT      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  66.3   5.46   4.60  0.86
7     MIA      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  51.0  -1.82   0.27 -2.09
8     NYG      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  54.9   1.67   1.13  0.54
9     SEA      2.0    15   9   5   1  63.3  66.0   2.76   4.00 -1.24
10    GB       4.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  57.9   2.69   2.47  0.23
11    DET      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  48.7  -1.14  -0.33 -0.80
12    HOU      2.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  38.0  -2.40  -2.80  0.40
13    WAS      2.0    15   8   6   1  56.7  54.8   2.42   1.47  0.95
14    TB       2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  46.2  -0.07  -1.07  1.00
15    TEN      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.1  -1.35  -0.27 -1.08
16    BAL      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  60.1   2.71   2.60  0.11
17    DEN      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.9   2.85   1.20  1.65
18    NO      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  54.1   1.48   1.40  0.08
19    MIN     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  47.8  -0.38  -0.53  0.16
20    BUF     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  59.1   1.51   2.73 -1.22
21    IND     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  53.3   0.38   1.00 -0.62
22    ARI     -2.0    15   6   8   1  43.3  54.1  -0.04   1.20 -1.24
23    PHI     -1.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  55.5   2.77   1.47  1.30
24    CAR     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  42.9  -1.05  -2.13  1.08
25    CIN     -2.0    15   5   9   1  36.7  48.1  -0.11  -0.47  0.36
26    SD      -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  49.4   0.33  -0.20  0.53
27    LA      -4.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  17.3  -9.51  -8.80 -0.71
28    NYJ     -5.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  16.7 -10.30 -10.27 -0.04
29    JAX     -5.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  31.7  -4.87  -5.20  0.33
30    CHI     -6.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  27.5  -6.30  -6.13 -0.17
31    SF     -13.0    15   2  13   0  13.3  17.8 -11.78 -11.27 -0.52
32    CLE    -14.0    15   1  14   0   6.7  13.2 -10.83 -12.33  1.50

Playoff slots by now are almost all determined. AFC playoff contenders are set. NFC playoff contenders are set but for one wild card slot and one division champion (NFC North). Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in a thrilling game. Kansas City played the heaviest QB in my memory. Two good QBs broke legs and the loss of Carr could have a serious impact on Oakland’s playoff success.

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At this point races are getting tighter, and games become tougher. QB play suffered as elements of winter weather affect play. Atlanta’s SRS took a big leap as the 42-14 game with LA factored in.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       119     57.2      27.38        17.54      9.83

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.39


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      11.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  80.4   6.47   9.15 -2.69
2     DAL      6.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  77.0   7.49   7.85 -0.35
3     KC       5.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  63.9   4.22   3.62  0.60
4     OAK      3.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.4   4.12   2.92  1.20
5     DET      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  58.1   0.94   2.08 -1.13
6     NYG      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  53.7   1.48   0.85  0.63
7     SEA      2.0    13   8   4   1  65.4  63.7   2.26   3.23 -0.97
8     PIT      8.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  67.4   5.02   4.69  0.32
9     ATL      7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  67.5   7.36   6.38  0.98
10    TB       3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  49.1   0.13  -0.23  0.36
11    MIA      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  44.2  -3.27  -1.54 -1.73
12    DEN      2.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  66.4   4.75   4.15  0.59
13    WAS      2.0    13   7   5   1  57.7  53.4   2.85   1.00  1.85
14    GB       4.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  55.5   2.61   1.62  0.99
15    MIN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  61.4   2.80   2.54  0.27
16    HOU      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  35.3  -2.42  -3.46  1.04
17    BAL      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  63.5   2.24   3.23 -0.99
18    TEN      1.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  54.0   0.04   1.15 -1.11
19    IND     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  48.7  -0.88  -0.38 -0.49
20    BUF     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  56.5   0.91   1.85 -0.94
21    CIN     -1.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  49.7  -0.13  -0.08 -0.06
22    ARI     -2.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  56.4  -0.04   1.69 -1.73
23    NO      -2.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  51.7   0.78   0.54  0.24
24    SD      -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  50.7   1.14   0.23  0.91
25    CAR     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  43.2  -1.40  -2.00  0.60
26    PHI     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  55.4   2.81   1.38  1.43
27    NYJ     -4.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  23.6  -8.47  -7.31 -1.17
28    LA      -4.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  17.9  -8.81  -8.46 -0.35
29    CHI     -6.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  28.5  -5.47  -5.31 -0.16
30    JAX     -7.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  23.9  -6.38  -7.54  1.15
31    SF     -13.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  18.0 -11.65 -10.92 -0.73
32    CLE    -14.0    13   0  13   0   0.0  11.8 -11.49 -12.92  1.43

We’re getting to a time and place where playoff positions will begin to be decided. Both Seattle and Dallas can make their own destinies. In the AFC, New England and Oakland have identical records and so unraveling the order there will be trickier. Those that guess that Dallas has about a 90% chance of getting the #1 seed seem accurate by my rough calculations. Using the SRS values available about 8 pm last Sunday, Dallas appeared to have a 90.6% chance of getting first seed, while Pythagorean expectations yielded a 92% chance. If Dallas beats New York, those odds will exceed 98%.

Just to be sure the (relatively high) Pythagorean exponent was real, I did tests where I changed the upper and lower bounds of the search to 2.0 and 3.0 respectively. When I did, the solution was 3.0 to 3 significant digits. There is no hidden minimum in between 2.0 and 3.0 that the normal algorithm does not catch.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       110     57.3      27.62        17.72      9.90

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.38


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      6.5    12  11   1   0  91.7  78.2   7.75   8.75 -1.00
2     NE      12.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  81.2   6.73   9.33 -2.61
3     OAK      4.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  61.9   4.73   3.83  0.89
4     KC       4.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  62.4   3.60   3.25  0.35
5     SEA      4.0    12   8   3   1  70.8  73.9   4.84   5.83 -0.99
6     DEN      5.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  67.9   5.42   4.75  0.67
7     DET      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  57.6   0.82   2.00 -1.18
8     NYG      2.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  52.8   0.51   0.67 -0.16
9     PIT      9.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  66.7   4.66   4.50  0.16
10    ATL      4.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  62.7   6.57   4.58  1.99
11    BAL      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  67.2   2.42   4.08 -1.66
12    MIA      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  42.8  -3.31  -1.92 -1.39
13    TB       2.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  47.6   0.01  -0.67  0.68
14    WAS      1.0    12   6   5   1  54.2  52.3   2.16   0.67  1.50
15    GB       1.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  48.0  -0.14  -0.58  0.44
16    IND      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  50.0  -0.79   0.00 -0.79
17    BUF      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.0   1.70   2.58 -0.88
18    MIN      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.1   2.27   2.00  0.27
19    HOU     -2.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  32.5  -3.23  -4.17  0.94
20    TEN     -3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.4  -0.87   1.00 -1.87
21    ARI     -1.0    12   5   6   1  45.8  57.9   0.80   2.08 -1.28
22    NO      -1.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.0   1.52   1.00  0.52
23    SD      -2.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.9   2.29   1.25  1.04
24    PHI     -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  57.5   2.87   1.92  0.96
25    CIN     -2.5    12   4   7   1  37.5  45.3  -0.24  -1.17  0.93
26    CAR     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  39.5  -2.09  -3.17  1.07
27    LA      -3.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  22.0  -7.47  -6.83 -0.64
28    NYJ     -4.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  20.6  -8.30  -8.42  0.12
29    CHI     -6.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  28.0  -6.19  -5.50 -0.69
30    JAX     -6.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  24.4  -6.60  -7.42  0.81
31    SF     -15.0    12   1  11   0   8.3  17.5 -10.91 -11.33  0.42
32    CLE    -14.0    12   0  12   0   0.0  12.3 -11.52 -12.92  1.40