We’re getting to a time and place where playoff positions will begin to be decided. Both Seattle and Dallas can make their own destinies. In the AFC, New England and Oakland have identical records and so unraveling the order there will be trickier. Those that guess that Dallas has about a 90% chance of getting the #1 seed seem accurate by my rough calculations. Using the SRS values available about 8 pm last Sunday, Dallas appeared to have a 90.6% chance of getting first seed, while Pythagorean expectations yielded a 92% chance. If Dallas beats New York, those odds will exceed 98%.

Just to be sure the (relatively high) Pythagorean exponent was real, I did tests where I changed the upper and lower bounds of the search to 2.0 and 3.0 respectively. When I did, the solution was 3.0 to 3 significant digits. There is no hidden minimum in between 2.0 and 3.0 that the normal algorithm does not catch.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       110     57.3      27.62        17.72      9.90

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.38


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      6.5    12  11   1   0  91.7  78.2   7.75   8.75 -1.00
2     NE      12.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  81.2   6.73   9.33 -2.61
3     OAK      4.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  61.9   4.73   3.83  0.89
4     KC       4.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  62.4   3.60   3.25  0.35
5     SEA      4.0    12   8   3   1  70.8  73.9   4.84   5.83 -0.99
6     DEN      5.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  67.9   5.42   4.75  0.67
7     DET      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  57.6   0.82   2.00 -1.18
8     NYG      2.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  52.8   0.51   0.67 -0.16
9     PIT      9.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  66.7   4.66   4.50  0.16
10    ATL      4.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  62.7   6.57   4.58  1.99
11    BAL      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  67.2   2.42   4.08 -1.66
12    MIA      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  42.8  -3.31  -1.92 -1.39
13    TB       2.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  47.6   0.01  -0.67  0.68
14    WAS      1.0    12   6   5   1  54.2  52.3   2.16   0.67  1.50
15    GB       1.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  48.0  -0.14  -0.58  0.44
16    IND      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  50.0  -0.79   0.00 -0.79
17    BUF      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.0   1.70   2.58 -0.88
18    MIN      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.1   2.27   2.00  0.27
19    HOU     -2.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  32.5  -3.23  -4.17  0.94
20    TEN     -3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.4  -0.87   1.00 -1.87
21    ARI     -1.0    12   5   6   1  45.8  57.9   0.80   2.08 -1.28
22    NO      -1.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.0   1.52   1.00  0.52
23    SD      -2.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.9   2.29   1.25  1.04
24    PHI     -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  57.5   2.87   1.92  0.96
25    CIN     -2.5    12   4   7   1  37.5  45.3  -0.24  -1.17  0.93
26    CAR     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  39.5  -2.09  -3.17  1.07
27    LA      -3.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  22.0  -7.47  -6.83 -0.64
28    NYJ     -4.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  20.6  -8.30  -8.42  0.12
29    CHI     -6.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  28.0  -6.19  -5.50 -0.69
30    JAX     -6.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  24.4  -6.60  -7.42  0.81
31    SF     -15.0    12   1  11   0   8.3  17.5 -10.91 -11.33  0.42
32    CLE    -14.0    12   0  12   0   0.0  12.3 -11.52 -12.92  1.40
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