The teams in the 2016 Championship are Atlanta and New England, and my system this year slightly favors Atlanta, given the same assumptions that we used initially. Atlanta is selected as the “home team”, though no home team is used in any of the final calculations.
Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:
|NFL Championship Round Playoff Odds|
|Home Team||Visiting Team||Score Diff||Win Prob||Est. Point Spread|
|Atlanta Falcons||New England Patriots||0.092||0.523||0.6|
We present a series of alternate calculations below. They are based on — what if Atlanta should be treated as a team with playoff experience, then median point spread, then Pythagoreans, and then the Simple Ranking system.
|ATL – NE Alternate Calculations|
|Odds Method||Score Diff||Win Prob||Est. Point Spread|
|ATL has playoff experience||0.839||0.698||6.2|
|Median Point Spread||-0.68||0.34||-5.0|
There is nothing consistent in any of the ratings methods. Median point spreads, when pumped into a logistic regression, have less correlation than Pythagorean, though in both cases, the confidence intervals are on the order of 0.15, as opposed to less than 0.05. Medians and Pythagoreans suggest New England has a large advantage, Simple Rankings say the game will be close, too close to bet. So two claim close games, toss ups more or less, one suggests an easy Atlanta victory, and the others suggest a substantial Patriots margin.