As I’m really away from home and short of time, I’ll mention my methodology is described in depth here.

The first table is the worksheet. Values will not change throughout the playoffs.

2017 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank Name Home Field Adv Playoff Experience SOS Total Score
1 Philadelphia Eagles 0.660 0 -0.216 0.444
2 Minnesota Vikings 0.660 0.747 0.301 1.708
3 Los Angeles Rams 0.660 0.0 -0.046 0.614
4 New Orleans Saints 0.660 0 0.471 1.131
5 Carolina Panthers 0.0 0.747 0.629 1.376
6 Atlanta Falcons 0.0 0.747 0.575 1.322
AFC
1 New England Patriots 0.660 0.747 -0.377 1.030
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.660 0.747 -0.334 1.073
3 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.660 0 -0.842 -0.182
4 Kansas City Chiefs 0.660 0.747 -0.404 1.003
5 Tennessee Titans 0.0 0.0 -0.644 -0.644
6 Buffalo Bills 0.0 0.0 -0.146 -0.146

 

LA is not favored by this model and neither are AFC teams. The NFC South’s toughness shows through in the SOS marks for this data set. Minnesota and/or NFC South Teams largely have advantages over almost any matchup the AFC can offer. Finally, an open Q is, is Drew Brees elite enough that his team should be granted the PPX bonus? For now I’d consider this a question to be answered later.

This second table shows odds for the first round, calculated for you. The only home team it favors is Kansas City.

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
Los Angeles Rams Atlanta Falcons -0.708 0.330 -5.2
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers -0.245 0.439 -1.8
Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills -0.036 0.491 -0.3
Kansas City Chiefs Tennessee Titans 1.647 0.838 12.1
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