October 2018


It’s an interesting part of the season, as the trade deadline approaches and teams get talent to reload for the latter half of the season. Amari Cooper is in Dallas, Demaryius Thomas is in Houston, and Golden Tate has been traded to the Eagles. “Snacks” Harrison is in Detroit.

Despite the fire sale in Oakland, they are not on the bottom of the charts, just yet, saved by a half game. Comparing records to Pythagoreans, Washington, Cinncinnati and Miami are the teams most overperforming presently. By Simple Ranking, Buffalo, despite their two wins, is the worst team in football.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
121        73     60.3      29.07        18.32     10.74

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.91


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA       9.5     8   8   0   0 100.0  82.5  11.20  13.62 -2.42
2     KC       8.5     8   7   1   0  87.5  73.3  11.63  10.62  1.00
3     NO       6.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  67.1   6.39   7.29 -0.89
4     NE       7.0     8   6   2   0  75.0  67.8   5.90   6.75 -0.85
5     WAS      6.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  56.2   1.38   1.71 -0.33
6     CAR      4.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  61.3   4.47   3.71  0.76
7     LAC      2.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  62.7   2.32   4.57 -2.25
8     PIT      3.0     7   4   2   1  64.3  62.1   5.70   4.57  1.13
9     HOU      3.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  61.8   0.76   3.75 -2.99
10    CIN      2.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  44.9   0.33  -2.00  2.33
11    SEA      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  68.4   5.66   5.71 -0.05
12    CHI      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  70.4   5.68   7.14 -1.46
13    MIN      1.0     8   4   3   1  56.2  50.7  -1.62   0.25 -1.87
14    BAL      5.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  74.2   7.29   7.50 -0.21
15    PHI      1.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  59.5   0.93   2.75 -1.82
16    GB       0.0     7   3   3   1  50.0  50.8  -0.67   0.29 -0.95
17    MIA     -3.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  33.9  -6.41  -5.62 -0.79
18    ATL     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  42.1  -1.74  -3.14  1.40
19    TEN     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  37.2  -4.62  -3.00 -1.62
20    DET     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  43.9  -2.56  -2.14 -0.41
21    TB      -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  39.4  -2.60  -4.57  1.97
22    DAL     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  59.3   2.57   2.43  0.14
23    IND     -3.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  55.9   0.32   2.25 -1.93
24    DEN     -3.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  47.7   2.45  -0.75  3.20
25    JAX     -4.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  33.4  -3.30  -4.50  1.20
26    NYJ     -6.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  47.0  -2.12  -1.00 -1.12
27    CLE     -3.0     8   2   5   1  31.2  34.7  -3.50  -5.12  1.62
28    ARI     -6.5     8   2   6   0  25.0  15.1  -9.99 -11.12  1.14
29    BUF    -15.0     8   2   6   0  25.0   8.2 -12.91 -14.12  1.21
30    OAK    -14.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  20.9  -9.71 -11.43  1.72
31    SF      -5.5     8   1   7   0  12.5  28.9  -7.83  -7.88  0.04
32    NYG     -6.0     8   1   7   0  12.5  28.7  -5.44  -6.88  1.43
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Sorry if this item has come out a little later than usual. There was a mini-emergency at my work and most of my time (and efforts) were concentrated on that.

Upcoming is the contest in London between the Eagles and the Jaguars. I’m actually looking forward to that.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
107        65     60.7      28.96        18.20     10.77

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.60


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA      12.0     7   7   0   0 100.0  82.9  13.26  15.29 -2.03
2     KC      10.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  71.7  12.33  11.14  1.19
3     NO       4.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  64.2   6.10   6.83 -0.73
4     NE       7.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  61.4   5.87   5.00  0.87
5     LAC      2.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  61.4   3.49   4.57 -1.08
6     WAS      4.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  52.6  -0.10   0.83 -0.93
7     CAR      3.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  55.2   0.40   1.83 -1.43
8     MIN      2.0     7   4   2   1  64.3  54.6  -1.09   1.71 -2.81
9     PIT      1.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  56.8   5.35   2.83  2.52
10    GB       0.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  51.8  -2.22   0.67 -2.88
11    BAL     12.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  80.9  10.17  10.71 -0.55
12    HOU      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  54.8  -1.39   1.57 -2.96
13    MIA      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  39.8  -4.15  -3.71 -0.43
14    CIN      1.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  43.6   0.22  -2.71  2.93
15    DET      3.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  49.6  -1.19  -0.17 -1.02
16    CHI      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  65.0   4.50   6.00 -1.50
17    SEA      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  62.8   5.01   4.33  0.68
18    TB       0.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  39.7  -3.00  -4.83  1.83
19    ATL     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  42.9  -2.88  -3.14  0.27
20    TEN     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  38.5  -4.20  -3.00 -1.20
21    PHI     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  57.1  -0.34   2.29 -2.62
22    DEN     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  50.4   3.29   0.14  3.15
23    DAL     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  58.3   1.36   2.43 -1.07
24    JAX     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  35.5  -3.33  -4.29  0.96
25    NYJ     -4.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  52.2  -0.42   0.86 -1.27
26    CLE     -3.0     7   2   4   1  35.7  39.8  -1.73  -3.71  1.98
27    IND     -4.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  51.4  -0.72   0.57 -1.29
28    BUF    -11.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  11.9 -12.85 -13.43  0.58
29    OAK    -12.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  22.8  -7.80 -11.00  3.20
30    NYG     -5.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  31.4  -6.87  -6.86 -0.01
31    SF      -8.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  30.2  -6.56  -8.57  2.01
32    ARI    -10.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  14.2 -10.53 -13.14  2.61

Purely from a personal fan perspective, a better week than others. Both of the teams I follow won this weekend. Atlanta squeaked by Tampa Bay, and Dallas demolished Jacksonville. Why Jacksonville single covered Cole Beasley is anyone’s guess.

Kansas City fell from the ranks of the unbeaten and Baltimore, with a terrific defensive performance, kept its high ranking at the top of the SRS charts.

Just as a reminder, SRS as calculated by this code corresponds exactly to the old version used by Pro Football Reference. You can test this by using the Wayback Machine to say, 2012 and comparing results.

Looking at ESPN’s QBR stat, do you get the impression it is heavily influenced by a couple huge games? Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the fifth ranked quarterback in the whole league.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
93         59     63.4      28.73        18.46     10.27

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.69


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA       9.5     6   6   0   0 100.0  79.7  11.27  13.00 -1.73
2     KC       7.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  64.6   8.12   7.17  0.95
3     NO       6.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  66.3   5.09   8.00 -2.91
4     BAL     12.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  86.4  11.87  12.67 -0.79
5     LAC      6.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  62.8   4.43   5.17 -0.73
6     CIN      5.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  56.5   4.41   2.67  1.74
7     NE       5.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  61.4   3.73   4.67 -0.94
8     MIA      5.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  42.7  -1.67  -2.50  0.83
9     WAS      6.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  51.3  -1.17   0.40 -1.57
10    CHI      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  73.0   6.65   8.60 -1.95
11    CAR      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  54.0   0.44   1.40 -0.96
12    PIT      1.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  57.0   5.91   2.83  3.08
13    MIN      1.0     6   3   2   1  58.3  46.3  -3.79  -1.33 -2.46
14    GB       0.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  51.8  -2.05   0.67 -2.72
15    NYJ      2.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  61.3   2.54   4.33 -1.79
16    PHI      1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  60.5  -0.87   3.33 -4.20
17    JAX      1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  40.4  -2.14  -2.83  0.69
18    TEN      1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  36.4  -4.41  -3.33 -1.08
19    SEA      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  63.2   4.93   4.33  0.59
20    HOU      0.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  49.0  -3.71  -0.33 -3.38
21    DAL     -0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  61.7   1.62   3.33 -1.71
22    CLE     -1.5     6   2   3   1  41.7  39.1  -0.18  -3.83  3.65
23    DET     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  43.9  -2.37  -2.40  0.03
24    TB      -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  36.6  -3.49  -6.40  2.91
25    ATL     -3.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  40.7  -2.25  -4.17  1.91
26    DEN     -3.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  33.8  -0.54  -5.67  5.13
27    BUF     -9.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  16.7  -9.94 -10.33  0.39
28    SF      -5.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  37.5  -5.69  -5.17 -0.52
29    IND     -6.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  38.8  -3.85  -4.67  0.82
30    NYG     -6.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  29.4  -7.43  -7.50  0.07
31    ARI     -6.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  19.5  -7.47  -9.50  2.03
32    OAK    -12.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  22.0  -7.96 -11.00  3.04

In the chase for teams that might approach the 1950 Los Angeles Rams as the highest scoring team in history, the Saints are now scoring at a pace of 36.0 points a game. The LA Rams and Kansas City Chiefs are just a few points behind. That said, it’s an odd season. The Falcons are 1-4, the whole NFC East is in a bad way, and it’s reasonable to ask if John Gruden trading Khalil Mack didn’t flip everything for the Chicago Bears.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
78         50     64.1      28.31        18.35      9.96

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.96


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA      12.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  84.4  11.84  15.00 -3.16
2     KC      10.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  71.2   9.91   9.20  0.71
3     CIN     10.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  61.8   5.13   4.60  0.53
4     NO       6.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  67.8   6.51   8.00 -1.49
5     CAR      5.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  59.8   1.76   3.25 -1.49
6     CHI      4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  83.0   9.02  11.50 -2.48
7     BAL     12.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  83.2  11.62  11.00  0.62
8     NE       7.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  65.0   2.77   5.00 -2.23
9     MIA      7.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  37.9  -3.11  -3.60  0.49
10    JAX      5.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  62.4   5.05   3.20  1.85
11    TEN      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  50.9  -3.31   0.20 -3.51
12    LAC      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  53.9   1.03   1.40 -0.37
13    TB       1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  34.5  -2.34  -6.75  4.41
14    WAS      1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  46.5  -2.94  -1.00 -1.94
15    PIT      0.0     5   2   2   1  50.0  55.4   6.18   2.00  4.18
16    GB       0.0     5   2   2   1  50.0  50.6  -2.77   0.20 -2.97
17    CLE      0.0     5   2   2   1  50.0  50.7   4.63   0.20  4.43
18    MIN      0.0     5   2   2   1  50.0  39.2  -6.14  -3.60 -2.54
19    DET     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  43.2  -3.86  -2.40 -1.46
20    SEA     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  51.3   1.97   0.40  1.57
21    PHI     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  49.3  -4.08  -0.20 -3.88
22    HOU     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  44.4  -4.49  -1.80 -2.69
23    DAL     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  39.4  -4.31  -2.60 -1.71
24    NYJ     -4.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  61.5   3.75   3.60  0.15
25    DEN     -4.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  31.0  -1.93  -6.20  4.27
26    BUF    -11.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  13.5 -10.91 -11.00  0.09
27    ARI     -3.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  16.6  -6.78  -9.40  2.62
28    IND     -4.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  38.6  -4.72  -4.00 -0.72
29    NYG     -5.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  35.1  -3.90  -4.80  0.90
30    ATL     -6.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  35.4  -2.90  -6.00  3.10
31    SF      -8.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  34.7  -6.77  -5.60 -1.17
32    OAK     -8.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  27.3  -5.91  -8.40  2.49

Somewhere around the third or fourth game the Simple Ranking System begius to resolve, and it did resolve on the third week, but the results were weird. What to think of New England as the 29th team in the NFL? Not as much. Even the fourth week will have its oddities, as it considers the Baltimore Ravens as the best team in the league, probably off the massive win in week 1. The other early story line is whether or not this is a historic season for scoring. Last I checked, the 1950 Las Angelas Rams held the scoring lead for a season at 38.8 points a game, and the 2018 Rams are clipping along at a mere 35 points a game. Not quite there yet.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
63         38     60.3      28.21        18.30      9.90

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.16


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA      16.0     4   4   0   0 100.0  91.2  12.78  18.25 -5.47
2     KC       7.5     4   4   0   0 100.0  67.6   4.77   7.50 -2.73
3     BAL     12.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  88.3  13.59  14.50 -0.91
4     JAX      8.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  80.7   6.43   8.00 -1.57
5     MIA      7.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  42.7  -3.32  -2.00 -1.32
6     CIN      6.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  58.5   9.26   3.25  6.01
7     NO       4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  59.7   1.97   4.00 -2.03
8     CHI      4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  84.5   8.87  11.50 -2.63
9     TEN      3.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  52.1   0.41   0.50 -0.09
10    WAS     14.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  76.6   4.77   6.67 -1.89
11    CAR      8.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  63.0   6.32   3.67  2.65
12    GB       0.5     4   2   1   1  62.5  58.1   0.74   2.25 -1.51
13    TB       1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  33.5  -4.03  -6.75  2.72
14    PHI      0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  51.0   0.37   0.25  0.12
15    SEA      0.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  53.8   0.34   1.00 -0.66
16    DEN     -1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  38.8   0.31  -3.25  3.56
17    NE      -2.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  59.6   0.48   2.75 -2.27
18    DAL     -3.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  39.2  -4.28  -2.50 -1.78
19    LAC     -4.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  43.9  -3.04  -2.25 -0.79
20    CLE     -1.5     4   1   2   1  37.5  48.5  -1.63  -0.50 -1.13
21    PIT     -2.5     4   1   2   1  37.5  40.0  -0.32  -3.50  3.18
22    MIN     -3.5     4   1   2   1  37.5  34.6  -6.80  -5.00 -1.80
23    DET     -2.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  35.2  -8.34  -5.00 -3.34
24    ATL     -3.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  46.0   2.98  -1.50  4.48
25    IND     -3.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  45.1   1.14  -1.50  2.64
26    HOU     -4.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  40.8  -3.85  -3.00 -0.85
27    OAK     -4.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  32.0  -4.47  -6.50  2.03
28    SF      -5.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  37.2  -7.85  -4.50 -3.35
29    NYJ     -6.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  50.0  -1.72   0.00 -1.72
30    NYG     -6.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  30.3  -5.43  -5.50  0.07
31    BUF    -16.5     4   1   3   0  25.0   8.5 -12.88 -14.00  1.12
32    ARI    -10.5     4   0   4   0   0.0   5.0  -7.56 -14.25  6.69