December 2018


The new year is almost upon us, and the teams that can make it into the playoffs have tightened. The mystery of the AFC West is not solved, and whether Baltimore or Pittsburgh wins their division is still in play. With Philadelphia make it into the playoffs? Will the Eagles have Nick Foles or NICK FOLES (r) as their QB? Are the rebuilt Seahawks going on a playoff run? Only time will tell.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       145     60.4      28.57        17.79     10.78

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.77


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NO      10.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  76.5  11.86  11.33  0.53
2     LA       5.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  70.1   8.41   8.47 -0.05
3     KC       7.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  65.8   7.97   7.47  0.51
4     CHI      7.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  73.8   5.75   8.27 -2.52
5     LAC      3.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  65.7   5.44   5.67 -0.23
6     NE       7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  64.2   3.77   5.07 -1.30
7     HOU      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  63.4   3.29   4.60 -1.31
8     BAL      8.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  70.9   7.31   6.67  0.65
9     SEA      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  64.5   5.21   5.20  0.01
10    IND      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  63.6   2.59   4.87 -2.28
11    DAL      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  53.3   1.15   0.93  0.22
12    TEN      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  55.6   1.02   1.53 -0.52
13    PIT      3.0    15   8   6   1  56.7  61.7   5.89   4.33  1.55
14    MIN      2.0    15   8   6   1  56.7  56.8   1.15   2.20 -1.05
15    PHI      2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.0   0.68  -0.33  1.01
16    CLE      0.0    15   7   7   1  50.0  43.9  -0.61  -2.07  1.45
17    WAS     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  38.1  -3.79  -3.60 -0.19
18    MIA     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  32.9  -7.36  -5.93 -1.42
19    GB      -2.0    15   6   8   1  43.3  51.3  -0.70   0.47 -1.17
20    DEN     -2.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  48.7   0.02  -0.40  0.42
21    ATL     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  48.0  -0.01  -0.73  0.73
22    CAR     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  45.2  -0.91  -1.67  0.75
23    CIN     -5.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  35.7  -3.74  -5.60  1.86
24    TB      -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  38.7  -2.62  -4.40  1.78
25    NYG     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  41.9  -2.33  -2.80  0.47
26    DET     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  36.1  -5.07  -4.47 -0.61
27    JAX     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  36.4  -3.49  -3.60  0.11
28    BUF     -7.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  22.2  -8.36  -8.67  0.31
29    SF      -4.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  35.1  -5.43  -5.13 -0.30
30    NYJ     -7.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  36.5  -6.45  -4.87 -1.58
31    OAK    -14.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  24.4  -8.41  -9.67  1.26
32    ARI    -12.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  13.1 -12.23 -13.13  0.90
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Heading to my father’s place this next week. I’ll be taking some of my code with me, and barring no issues, I’ll have data for week 16 as well. Things are moving pretty quickly, and playoff teams are about to be nailed down.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       136     60.7      28.66        17.78     10.88

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.69


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NO      10.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  77.2  11.83  11.93 -0.10
2     KC       7.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  67.6   8.78   8.50  0.28
3     LA       4.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  67.2   8.31   7.50  0.81
4     LAC      4.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  68.1   6.09   6.93 -0.84
5     CHI      7.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  73.2   6.25   8.50 -2.25
6     HOU      3.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  64.7   3.71   5.07 -1.36
7     NE       7.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  62.4   3.94   4.57 -0.63
8     PIT      3.5    14   8   5   1  60.7  62.8   5.66   4.86  0.80
9     BAL      5.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  69.1   6.64   6.29  0.35
10    IND      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  64.1   2.80   5.14 -2.35
11    SEA      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  64.3   4.57   5.07 -0.51
12    TEN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  53.6   0.72   1.00 -0.28
13    DAL      2.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  51.7   0.84   0.50  0.34
14    MIN      1.0    14   7   6   1  53.6  53.2   0.35   1.07 -0.72
15    PHI      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  48.5   0.15  -0.50  0.65
16    WAS      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  39.6  -3.62  -3.21 -0.41
17    MIA     -1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  34.5  -6.86  -5.64 -1.22
18    CLE     -1.5    14   6   7   1  46.4  42.1  -0.86  -2.79  1.93
19    DEN     -1.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  51.6   1.52   0.50  1.02
20    CAR     -2.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  47.8  -0.14  -0.79  0.64
21    CIN     -4.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  36.6  -3.37  -5.43  2.06
22    GB      -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  50.2  -0.78   0.07 -0.85
23    DET     -2.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  39.4  -4.20  -3.50 -0.70
24    TB      -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  39.5  -2.45  -4.21  1.76
25    NYG     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  41.6  -2.71  -2.93  0.22
26    ATL     -4.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  45.4  -1.01  -1.79  0.78
27    BUF     -5.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  23.5  -8.26  -8.43  0.17
28    JAX     -3.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  33.8  -3.91  -4.57  0.66
29    SF      -3.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  35.9  -5.86  -5.14 -0.72
30    NYJ     -7.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  36.4  -6.21  -4.79 -1.42
31    ARI    -11.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  14.9 -12.16 -12.50  0.34
32    OAK    -14.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  21.8  -9.76 -11.29  1.53

There were wild endings galore this time, perhaps the wildest the Miami runback on the last play of the game. New Orleans is number 1 in the NFC again, after Chicago defeated LA, and teams such as Carolina continue to puzzle me with their on again – off again character.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       127     61.1      29.01        18.02     10.99

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.78


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NO      10.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  78.1  12.22  12.62 -0.39
2     KC       7.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  69.4   9.24   9.23  0.01
3     LA       5.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  70.0  10.04   8.62  1.42
4     LAC      5.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  70.0   6.05   7.38 -1.33
5     NE       7.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  64.6   4.28   5.46 -1.19
6     CHI      7.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  73.9   6.77   8.62 -1.84
7     HOU      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  64.9   3.65   4.92 -1.27
8     SEA      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  66.4   6.16   5.69  0.46
9     DAL      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  57.9   2.21   2.31 -0.09
10    PIT      3.0    13   7   5   1  57.7  62.4   4.97   4.69  0.27
11    IND      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  60.4   0.95   3.77 -2.82
12    BAL      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  68.9   6.30   6.15  0.15
13    TEN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  49.2  -0.51  -0.23 -0.28
14    MIA      1.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  37.7  -5.74  -4.23 -1.51
15    MIN      0.0    13   6   6   1  50.0  47.8  -0.57  -0.69  0.12
16    CAR     -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  48.3  -0.96  -0.62 -0.34
17    DEN     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  51.9   2.08   0.62  1.47
18    PHI     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  46.6  -1.20  -1.08 -0.12
19    WAS     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  38.0  -3.79  -3.69 -0.10
20    GB      -2.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  51.8  -0.52   0.62 -1.14
21    CLE     -3.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  41.2  -1.43  -3.08  1.65
22    TB      -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  40.2  -2.92  -3.92  1.01
23    NYG     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  44.8  -1.98  -1.85 -0.13
24    DET     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  38.9  -3.31  -3.69  0.39
25    CIN     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  32.9  -4.25  -6.92  2.67
26    JAX     -3.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  33.1  -4.19  -4.69  0.51
27    ATL     -6.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  39.8  -2.32  -3.92  1.61
28    NYJ     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  36.4  -6.55  -4.62 -1.94
29    BUF     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  21.6  -8.89  -9.15  0.26
30    SF      -4.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  33.9  -6.23  -5.77 -0.46
31    ARI    -10.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  15.6 -10.63 -11.46  0.83
32    OAK    -14.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  21.6  -8.94 -11.08  2.14

The Dallas-Saints Thursday night game I believe surprised even Dallas fans. I suspect most people expected a repeat of the Philadelphia game, with a score more like 50-20 or so. Instead, it was a 13-10 win for the Cowboys, in a game that easily could have been 20-10.
I caught a bit of the Monday night game. I wish I could have seen the Peterson run live. The man is ageless.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       116     60.4      29.23        18.09     11.14

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.92


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA       6.0    12  11   1   0  91.7  73.0  10.72  10.08  0.64
2     NO      10.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  78.5  12.76  12.50  0.26
3     KC       8.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  70.9   9.63   9.75 -0.12
4     NE      10.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  67.2   4.73   6.00 -1.27
5     LAC      5.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  71.3   6.31   7.58 -1.27
6     HOU      3.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  67.5   4.04   5.58 -1.55
7     CHI      6.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  73.9   5.18   8.58 -3.41
8     PIT      3.5    12   7   4   1  62.5  64.5   6.93   5.33  1.59
9     BAL      6.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  72.2   6.73   6.92 -0.18
10    SEA      3.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  64.8   5.32   5.00  0.32
11    DAL      2.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  57.4   2.34   2.00  0.34
12    MIN      1.0    12   6   5   1  54.2  51.3  -0.39   0.42 -0.80
13    TEN      1.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  42.5  -1.85  -2.00  0.15
14    CAR      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  49.5  -0.15  -0.17  0.02
15    PHI      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  47.8  -0.82  -0.67 -0.15
16    WAS      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  42.9  -1.84  -2.00  0.16
17    IND      0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  61.0   0.56   3.83 -3.28
18    MIA      0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  35.4  -7.28  -4.67 -2.61
19    DEN     -0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.8   3.44   1.17  2.27
20    TB      -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  42.0  -2.74  -3.08  0.34
21    CIN     -5.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  31.9  -4.23  -7.08  2.86
22    GB      -2.5    12   4   7   1  37.5  48.5  -1.79  -0.50 -1.29
23    CLE     -3.0    12   4   7   1  37.5  38.6  -1.50  -3.83  2.34
24    NYG     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  38.2  -3.45  -4.00  0.55
25    JAX     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  37.2  -2.79  -3.33  0.55
26    ATL     -4.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  41.5  -0.85  -3.08  2.23
27    DET     -5.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  34.6  -4.41  -5.17  0.76
28    BUF     -9.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  18.9  -9.05  -9.58  0.53
29    ARI     -6.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  15.9 -10.36 -11.25  0.89
30    NYJ     -7.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  33.6  -7.05  -5.33 -1.72
31    SF      -6.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  30.9  -7.74  -6.75 -0.99
32    OAK    -14.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  18.3 -10.40 -12.25  1.85