December 2019


The word being used to describe the Atlanta win over San Francisco is “miracle”. The Saints appeared to respond to the chance to take over the #1 seed in the NFC with a crushing victory over the Colts. The Saints stats are not to the level of New England, San Francisco, or Baltimore statistically, but they have been using a second string QB for a good part of the year.

As far as Dallas goes, the phrase most commonly heard is “Where has this team been all season?” The Week 16 clash between Dallas and Philadelphia will decide the conference leader.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       117     52.2      28.48        16.80     11.68

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.75


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     10.5    14  12   2   0  85.7  84.2  15.57  15.36  0.21
2     NE      15.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  87.9  11.98  13.64 -1.67
3     SF       9.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  79.1  11.84  11.50  0.34
4     GB       7.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  60.4   2.77   3.36 -0.58
5     NO       6.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  64.7   5.96   5.36  0.60
6     SEA      3.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  55.0   4.23   1.86  2.37
7     MIN     11.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  73.9   6.99   8.50 -1.51
8     BUF      7.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  67.8   2.87   4.93 -2.06
9     KC       6.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  71.1   8.02   7.86  0.17
10    HOU      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  52.2   1.23   0.79  0.44
11    LA       5.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.6   4.13   1.86  2.28
12    PIT      3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  52.6   1.57   0.71  0.85
13    TEN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  63.1   2.47   4.29 -1.81
14    DAL      3.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  67.8   5.07   6.43 -1.36
15    TB       1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  53.0   1.21   1.29 -0.08
16    PHI      1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.2  -1.08   0.43 -1.51
17    CHI      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  50.8  -0.66   0.21 -0.88
18    IND     -2.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  44.4  -2.59  -1.86 -0.73
19    OAK     -3.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  28.1  -8.48  -8.00 -0.48
20    CLE     -4.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  43.0  -0.89  -2.29  1.39
21    DEN     -2.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  38.4  -2.51  -3.21  0.71
22    LAC     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  52.1  -0.84   0.64 -1.48
23    CAR     -4.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  37.5  -3.84  -4.71  0.87
24    ATL     -5.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  42.9  -0.53  -2.57  2.04
25    JAX     -7.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  27.9  -8.21  -7.36 -0.86
26    NYJ    -11.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  28.9  -8.54  -6.86 -1.69
27    ARI     -4.5    14   4   9   1  32.1  33.5  -4.09  -6.29  2.19
28    DET     -4.0    14   3  10   1  25.0  36.3  -5.05  -4.93 -0.12
29    NYG     -6.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  30.5  -7.55  -7.07 -0.48
30    WAS    -10.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  21.2  -9.44  -9.43 -0.01
31    MIA    -14.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  16.5 -13.83 -13.86  0.03
32    CIN     -7.5    14   1  13   0   7.1  18.9  -7.78 -10.57  2.79

I guess the question of the week after the Chiefs – Patriots game is: have the refs always been this bad or are they steadily getting worse? The other standing question is, are the Ravens as good as their stats say they are? We probably won’t know till the playoffs kick off.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       110     52.9      28.24        16.80     11.44

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.69


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     SF      10.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  81.4  13.26  12.92  0.34
2     BAL      7.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  83.4  16.35  14.92  1.43
3     NE      14.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  86.7  11.83  13.08 -1.25
4     GB       7.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.0   2.28   3.00 -0.72
5     NO       6.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  60.0   3.90   3.69  0.20
6     SEA      3.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  54.1   4.40   1.54  2.86
7     MIN     10.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  69.6   5.01   6.92 -1.91
8     BUF      7.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  66.6   2.61   4.77 -2.16
9     KC       5.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  67.8   7.70   6.92  0.78
10    LA       7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  61.3   5.77   3.77  2.00
11    PIT      5.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  54.5   3.01   1.31  1.71
12    TEN      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  64.4   3.13   4.85 -1.72
13    HOU      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  51.7   1.10   0.62  0.48
14    CHI      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  53.1  -0.52   0.85 -1.37
15    TB      -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  49.5  -0.33  -0.23 -0.09
16    DAL     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  64.6   2.79   5.15 -2.37
17    IND     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  50.2  -0.90   0.08 -0.98
18    PHI     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  49.1  -1.78  -0.31 -1.47
19    OAK     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  28.1  -7.91  -8.31  0.40
20    CLE     -4.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  45.7   1.19  -1.38  2.57
21    DEN     -2.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  43.3  -1.30  -1.92  0.62
22    CAR     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  38.0  -4.60  -4.62  0.01
23    LAC     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  59.4   1.35   2.92 -1.57
24    NYJ     -8.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  31.6  -8.79  -5.77 -3.02
25    ATL     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  41.1  -2.57  -3.31  0.74
26    JAX     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  26.4  -8.35  -8.23 -0.12
27    DET     -4.0    13   3   9   1  26.9  39.8  -4.53  -3.69 -0.83
28    ARI     -6.0    13   3   9   1  26.9  29.8  -5.40  -7.85  2.44
29    WAS    -10.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  20.7  -9.72  -9.38 -0.34
30    MIA    -13.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  17.0 -12.79 -13.69  0.90
31    NYG     -7.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  26.4  -9.14  -8.85 -0.29
32    CIN     -7.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  20.9  -7.04  -9.77  2.73

Now that Ron Rivera has been sacked, a lot of talk is migrating to which head coaches are going to be unemployed at the end of the season. Both Dan Quinn and Jason Garrett are believed to be targets. If Dan is sacked, the cause I believe is mismanagement of the defensive coordinator position. It’s not an additional role he should have taken on.

In the case of Dallas, underperformance is a statistical fact that stands out in the nuumbers. Pythagoreans are about 20% higher than actual win rate. It’s the reverse of 2016, when performance was better than Pythagoreans. The linebackers have not been the darlings they were at the end of 2018, and fans are wondering if they have been “figured out”.

The opposing coach versus home coach and player is a battle. Opposing coaches learn tendencies which they use against players. Players learn to play smarter. Home coaches figure out what’s being done to players and prep them better. Feeling among fans is that Dallas handles motivation well, but manages to get outcoached a couple times a year. If they want to make the playoffs and make some noise, they need a better game day coach.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       101     52.6      28.03        16.53     11.50

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.80


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      15.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  90.3  13.08  14.75 -1.67
2     SF      11.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  85.9  14.17  13.83  0.34
3     BAL     10.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  84.9  17.26  15.58  1.68
4     NO       6.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  62.6   3.47   4.17 -0.70
5     SEA      3.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  58.0   5.57   3.00  2.57
6     BUF      8.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  70.6   2.01   5.75 -3.74
7     GB       7.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  58.7   2.53   2.83 -0.30
8     MIN      7.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  68.4   4.42   6.42 -2.00
9     KC       4.5    12   8   4   0  66.7  68.2   6.73   6.92 -0.19
10    HOU      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  55.4   2.71   1.83  0.88
11    LA       5.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  58.6   4.75   2.75  2.00
12    PIT      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  53.3   3.34   0.92  2.43
13    TEN      3.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  61.3   2.17   3.50 -1.33
14    DAL      3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  68.2   3.62   6.17 -2.55
15    CHI      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  51.3  -1.94   0.33 -2.27
16    IND      0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  51.1  -0.94   0.33 -1.28
17    OAK     -0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  29.4  -7.55  -7.25 -0.30
18    TB      -2.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  48.8  -0.26  -0.50  0.24
19    CAR     -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  40.8  -3.03  -3.33  0.30
20    PHI     -3.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  47.5  -1.72  -0.83 -0.89
21    CLE     -4.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  43.0   1.28  -2.17  3.44
22    DEN     -2.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  37.7  -3.24  -3.25  0.01
23    LAC     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  50.9  -1.18   0.25 -1.43
24    JAX     -7.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  31.2  -6.18  -6.00 -0.18
25    NYJ    -11.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  29.2  -8.11  -6.33 -1.77
26    DET     -3.5    12   3   8   1  29.2  41.8  -4.73  -2.92 -1.81
27    ARI     -4.5    12   3   8   1  29.2  29.0  -5.36  -8.00  2.64
28    ATL     -7.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  35.3  -3.98  -5.25  1.27
29    WAS    -10.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  19.1 -10.12  -9.75 -0.37
30    MIA    -15.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  14.5 -13.04 -14.75  1.71
31    NYG    -10.5    12   2  10   0  16.7  25.3  -9.19  -9.08 -0.10
32    CIN     -6.5    12   1  11   0   8.3  19.4  -6.54  -9.92  3.38