When doing fits to my playoff formula while excluding Super Bowl data, I noted the following:

./logistic_game.pl --nosb --start=2001 --end=2015
b[0]   = prev playoff experience
b[1]   = strength of schedule
b[2]   = constant
b_p[i] = probability the term could be a product of chance.


Start year    = 2001
Ending year   = 2015
Data points   = 150
Home team won = 94

2 = Years checked for playoff appearance.
complete results
D0	198.211779799779
Dm	181.040960409088
Dm_chisq	17.1708193906915
Dm_df	2
Dm_p	[0.00018681164]
b	[0.93247135 0.25819533 0.74094435]
b_chisq	[ 9.5962352   7.944765  15.099918]
b_p	[0.0019497672 0.0048226681 0.0001019677]
iter	6

There are 5 playoff games every year in the NFC, and 5 in the AFC, and over the last 10 years, the home team has won 94 of them. Nominally HFA is usually assigned to be a 3 point betting advantage, and nominally that advantage is approximately 60%. 94*100/150 is 62.66666 repeating, which rounds to 62.7 percent. That’s more than the nominal 60% and more than the average of the last five NFL seasons. To calculate, 2012-2016 home field wins are 146, 153, 145, 138, and 147 respectively. That totals to 729 wins over 5*256 games. The percentage calculates to be 56.95%. Expressed in logits, and then in points, these advantages then become:

Home Field Advantage
Type of HFA Win Percent Logit Prob Calculated Point Spread
Playoff HFA 62.7 0.518 3.8
Traditional HFA 60.0 0.405 3.0
Seasonal HFA 56.95 0.280 2.1

I wasn’t around for week 15 because of the holidays, so I will be adding a couple weeks of data today.

So week 15 is below:

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       126     56.2      27.38        17.45      9.93

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.47


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      12.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  82.6   7.28   9.43 -2.15
2     DAL      6.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  77.1   6.91   7.71 -0.80
3     OAK      3.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  59.9   4.43   2.93  1.50
4     KC       4.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  62.9   4.15   3.21  0.93
5     NYG      3.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  57.3   1.68   1.57  0.11
6     SEA      4.0    14   9   4   1  67.9  69.5   3.09   4.50 -1.41
7     PIT      7.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  67.6   4.97   4.64  0.33
8     ATL      7.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  71.9   8.08   7.93  0.15
9     MIA      3.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  50.3  -2.16   0.07 -2.23
10    DET      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  54.7  -0.09   1.14 -1.24
11    GB       3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.9   2.14   1.71  0.43
12    TB       2.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  47.5   0.40  -0.64  1.04
13    HOU      2.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  36.3  -2.47  -3.14  0.68
14    TEN      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  54.4   0.58   1.21 -0.64
15    BAL      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  62.9   2.24   3.07 -0.83
16    DEN      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  62.5   4.45   2.93  1.52
17    WAS      1.0    14   7   6   1  53.6  50.5   1.32   0.14  1.18
18    IND      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  55.7   1.14   1.64 -0.50
19    BUF      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  61.2   1.55   3.14 -1.60
20    MIN      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.7   0.42   0.36  0.06
21    NO      -1.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  53.0   1.37   1.00  0.37
22    CAR     -2.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  46.2  -0.44  -1.07  0.64
23    ARI     -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  53.9  -0.48   1.07 -1.55
24    CIN     -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  48.5  -0.21  -0.36  0.15
25    SD      -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  50.0   1.59   0.00  1.59
26    PHI     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  54.8   2.25   1.21  1.03
27    NYJ     -4.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  20.4  -9.28  -8.29 -0.99
28    LA      -5.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  14.5  -9.21  -9.36  0.14
29    CHI     -6.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  29.2  -5.37  -5.14 -0.23
30    JAX     -6.0    14   2  12   0  14.3  24.6  -6.19  -7.07  0.88
31    SF     -15.0    14   1  13   0   7.1  15.1 -12.05 -12.14  0.09
32    CLE    -14.0    14   0  14   0   0.0  10.5 -12.06 -13.43  1.37

and week 16 is here:

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       137     57.1      27.67        17.61     10.06

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.30


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      13.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  85.7   8.65  11.33 -2.69
2     DAL      6.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  77.8   8.01   8.60 -0.59
3     OAK      3.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  60.3   4.52   3.27  1.26
4     KC       5.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  67.0   5.26   4.53  0.72
5     ATL      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  72.5   8.47   8.53 -0.06
6     PIT      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  66.3   5.46   4.60  0.86
7     MIA      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  51.0  -1.82   0.27 -2.09
8     NYG      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  54.9   1.67   1.13  0.54
9     SEA      2.0    15   9   5   1  63.3  66.0   2.76   4.00 -1.24
10    GB       4.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  57.9   2.69   2.47  0.23
11    DET      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  48.7  -1.14  -0.33 -0.80
12    HOU      2.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  38.0  -2.40  -2.80  0.40
13    WAS      2.0    15   8   6   1  56.7  54.8   2.42   1.47  0.95
14    TB       2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  46.2  -0.07  -1.07  1.00
15    TEN      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.1  -1.35  -0.27 -1.08
16    BAL      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  60.1   2.71   2.60  0.11
17    DEN      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.9   2.85   1.20  1.65
18    NO      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  54.1   1.48   1.40  0.08
19    MIN     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  47.8  -0.38  -0.53  0.16
20    BUF     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  59.1   1.51   2.73 -1.22
21    IND     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  53.3   0.38   1.00 -0.62
22    ARI     -2.0    15   6   8   1  43.3  54.1  -0.04   1.20 -1.24
23    PHI     -1.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  55.5   2.77   1.47  1.30
24    CAR     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  42.9  -1.05  -2.13  1.08
25    CIN     -2.0    15   5   9   1  36.7  48.1  -0.11  -0.47  0.36
26    SD      -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  49.4   0.33  -0.20  0.53
27    LA      -4.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  17.3  -9.51  -8.80 -0.71
28    NYJ     -5.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  16.7 -10.30 -10.27 -0.04
29    JAX     -5.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  31.7  -4.87  -5.20  0.33
30    CHI     -6.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  27.5  -6.30  -6.13 -0.17
31    SF     -13.0    15   2  13   0  13.3  17.8 -11.78 -11.27 -0.52
32    CLE    -14.0    15   1  14   0   6.7  13.2 -10.83 -12.33  1.50

Playoff slots by now are almost all determined. AFC playoff contenders are set. NFC playoff contenders are set but for one wild card slot and one division champion (NFC North). Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in a thrilling game. Kansas City played the heaviest QB in my memory. Two good QBs broke legs and the loss of Carr could have a serious impact on Oakland’s playoff success.

At this point races are getting tighter, and games become tougher. QB play suffered as elements of winter weather affect play. Atlanta’s SRS took a big leap as the 42-14 game with LA factored in.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       119     57.2      27.38        17.54      9.83

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.39


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      11.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  80.4   6.47   9.15 -2.69
2     DAL      6.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  77.0   7.49   7.85 -0.35
3     KC       5.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  63.9   4.22   3.62  0.60
4     OAK      3.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.4   4.12   2.92  1.20
5     DET      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  58.1   0.94   2.08 -1.13
6     NYG      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  53.7   1.48   0.85  0.63
7     SEA      2.0    13   8   4   1  65.4  63.7   2.26   3.23 -0.97
8     PIT      8.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  67.4   5.02   4.69  0.32
9     ATL      7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  67.5   7.36   6.38  0.98
10    TB       3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  49.1   0.13  -0.23  0.36
11    MIA      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  44.2  -3.27  -1.54 -1.73
12    DEN      2.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  66.4   4.75   4.15  0.59
13    WAS      2.0    13   7   5   1  57.7  53.4   2.85   1.00  1.85
14    GB       4.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  55.5   2.61   1.62  0.99
15    MIN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  61.4   2.80   2.54  0.27
16    HOU      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  35.3  -2.42  -3.46  1.04
17    BAL      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  63.5   2.24   3.23 -0.99
18    TEN      1.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  54.0   0.04   1.15 -1.11
19    IND     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  48.7  -0.88  -0.38 -0.49
20    BUF     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  56.5   0.91   1.85 -0.94
21    CIN     -1.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  49.7  -0.13  -0.08 -0.06
22    ARI     -2.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  56.4  -0.04   1.69 -1.73
23    NO      -2.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  51.7   0.78   0.54  0.24
24    SD      -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  50.7   1.14   0.23  0.91
25    CAR     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  43.2  -1.40  -2.00  0.60
26    PHI     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  55.4   2.81   1.38  1.43
27    NYJ     -4.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  23.6  -8.47  -7.31 -1.17
28    LA      -4.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  17.9  -8.81  -8.46 -0.35
29    CHI     -6.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  28.5  -5.47  -5.31 -0.16
30    JAX     -7.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  23.9  -6.38  -7.54  1.15
31    SF     -13.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  18.0 -11.65 -10.92 -0.73
32    CLE    -14.0    13   0  13   0   0.0  11.8 -11.49 -12.92  1.43

We’re getting to a time and place where playoff positions will begin to be decided. Both Seattle and Dallas can make their own destinies. In the AFC, New England and Oakland have identical records and so unraveling the order there will be trickier. Those that guess that Dallas has about a 90% chance of getting the #1 seed seem accurate by my rough calculations. Using the SRS values available about 8 pm last Sunday, Dallas appeared to have a 90.6% chance of getting first seed, while Pythagorean expectations yielded a 92% chance. If Dallas beats New York, those odds will exceed 98%.

Just to be sure the (relatively high) Pythagorean exponent was real, I did tests where I changed the upper and lower bounds of the search to 2.0 and 3.0 respectively. When I did, the solution was 3.0 to 3 significant digits. There is no hidden minimum in between 2.0 and 3.0 that the normal algorithm does not catch.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       110     57.3      27.62        17.72      9.90

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.38


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      6.5    12  11   1   0  91.7  78.2   7.75   8.75 -1.00
2     NE      12.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  81.2   6.73   9.33 -2.61
3     OAK      4.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  61.9   4.73   3.83  0.89
4     KC       4.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  62.4   3.60   3.25  0.35
5     SEA      4.0    12   8   3   1  70.8  73.9   4.84   5.83 -0.99
6     DEN      5.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  67.9   5.42   4.75  0.67
7     DET      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  57.6   0.82   2.00 -1.18
8     NYG      2.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  52.8   0.51   0.67 -0.16
9     PIT      9.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  66.7   4.66   4.50  0.16
10    ATL      4.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  62.7   6.57   4.58  1.99
11    BAL      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  67.2   2.42   4.08 -1.66
12    MIA      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  42.8  -3.31  -1.92 -1.39
13    TB       2.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  47.6   0.01  -0.67  0.68
14    WAS      1.0    12   6   5   1  54.2  52.3   2.16   0.67  1.50
15    GB       1.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  48.0  -0.14  -0.58  0.44
16    IND      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  50.0  -0.79   0.00 -0.79
17    BUF      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.0   1.70   2.58 -0.88
18    MIN      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.1   2.27   2.00  0.27
19    HOU     -2.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  32.5  -3.23  -4.17  0.94
20    TEN     -3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.4  -0.87   1.00 -1.87
21    ARI     -1.0    12   5   6   1  45.8  57.9   0.80   2.08 -1.28
22    NO      -1.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.0   1.52   1.00  0.52
23    SD      -2.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.9   2.29   1.25  1.04
24    PHI     -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  57.5   2.87   1.92  0.96
25    CIN     -2.5    12   4   7   1  37.5  45.3  -0.24  -1.17  0.93
26    CAR     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  39.5  -2.09  -3.17  1.07
27    LA      -3.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  22.0  -7.47  -6.83 -0.64
28    NYJ     -4.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  20.6  -8.30  -8.42  0.12
29    CHI     -6.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  28.0  -6.19  -5.50 -0.69
30    JAX     -6.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  24.4  -6.60  -7.42  0.81
31    SF     -15.0    12   1  11   0   8.3  17.5 -10.91 -11.33  0.42
32    CLE    -14.0    12   0  12   0   0.0  12.3 -11.52 -12.92  1.40

The odds that teams like Oakland and Dallas make the playoffs are getting larger, but what can’t be predicted is where in the ranking (1-6) they will be. At this point, Washington could still win the NFC East. Philadelphia could tie, I guess, though the absence of 3 good receivers really does hamper them.

It’s hard to understand Oakland’s success until you split the season in two. The first half was luck. The last half has been offensive dominance, OSRS over 11, best in league over that period of time.

Given that Dallas has playoff experience in 2014 and not in 2015, I have new formulas for playoff odds, based on adding four more years of data. Those will be published in the near future.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
177       101     57.1      27.48        18.02      9.46

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.45

Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      7.0    11  10   1   0  90.9  79.6   7.74   9.36 -1.63
2     NE      11.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  79.7   7.10   8.73 -1.62
3     OAK      3.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  59.4   3.86   2.91  0.95
4     KC       5.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  63.7   3.42   3.45 -0.03
5     NYG      3.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  57.0   0.75   1.64 -0.88
6     SEA      2.0    11   7   3   1  68.2  65.1   3.72   3.36  0.35
7     ATL      7.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  64.3   7.27   5.09  2.18
8     MIA      4.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  53.2  -0.59   0.82 -1.40
9     DET      3.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  53.2  -1.28   0.82 -2.10
10    DEN      2.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  66.2   5.72   4.27  1.44
11    WAS      2.0    11   6   4   1  59.1  55.1   2.38   1.45  0.92
12    PIT      8.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  65.1   4.09   4.00  0.09
13    BUF      4.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  64.6   2.95   4.09 -1.15
14    MIN      3.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  60.8   1.60   2.36 -0.77
15    HOU      3.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  33.7  -3.64  -3.82  0.18
16    TB       2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  45.0  -0.48  -1.36  0.88
17    BAL      2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  57.0  -0.02   1.55 -1.56
18    TEN     -3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.4  -1.77   1.00 -2.77
19    NO      -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  57.2   3.78   2.45  1.33
20    SD      -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  56.3   3.12   2.00  1.12
21    GB      -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  45.4  -1.27  -1.36  0.10
22    PHI     -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  64.7   4.19   3.73  0.46
23    IND     -3.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  40.7  -3.68  -2.82 -0.86
24    ARI     -2.0    11   4   6   1  40.9  56.2   0.92   1.55 -0.63
25    CAR     -3.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  48.5   0.89  -0.45  1.35
26    LA      -3.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  24.4  -6.38  -6.00 -0.38
27    CIN     -4.0    11   3   7   1  31.8  38.2  -1.79  -2.91  1.12
28    NYJ     -4.0    11   3   8   0  27.3  25.9  -6.20  -6.36  0.17
29    JAX     -5.0    11   2   9   0  18.2  25.3  -7.79  -7.18 -0.60
30    CHI     -6.0    11   2   9   0  18.2  20.4  -8.33  -7.82 -0.51
31    SF     -13.0    11   1  10   0   9.1  19.5  -8.68 -10.55  1.87
32    CLE    -14.0    12   0  12   0   0.0  11.9 -11.59 -12.92  1.32

Throughout the week, CBS Sports was doing its best to hype the Dallas Baltimore game. A typical comment was that Dallas hadn’t faced a good defense (though Philadelphia had as good a defense, and a better offense). CBS was a font of back handed compliments. Dallas won anyway, and the game was much easier than the PHI or NYG games.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
161        92     57.1      27.46        18.03      9.43

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.25


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      8.5    10   9   1   0  90.0  79.7   7.70   9.80 -2.10
2     NE      12.0    10   8   2   0  80.0  79.0   8.74   9.10 -0.36
3     OAK      4.5    10   8   2   0  80.0  59.0   2.96   2.90  0.06
4     SEA      4.0    10   7   2   1  75.0  68.2   5.67   4.60  1.07
5     KC       5.5    10   7   3   0  70.0  63.6   2.20   3.50 -1.30
6     DEN      5.0    10   7   3   0  70.0  68.2   5.56   5.00  0.56
7     NYG      2.0    10   7   3   0  70.0  51.6   0.60   0.40  0.20
8     WAS      4.0    10   6   3   1  65.0  57.0   2.26   2.10  0.16
9     MIN      4.5    10   6   4   0  60.0  62.1   2.20   2.90 -0.70
10    ATL      4.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  59.8   5.44   3.70  1.74
11    MIA      3.5    10   6   4   0  60.0  50.7   0.14   0.20 -0.06
12    HOU      3.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  36.4  -3.62  -3.40 -0.22
13    DET      2.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  52.1  -1.70   0.60 -2.30
14    PHI      4.0    10   5   5   0  50.0  69.9   6.04   5.50  0.54
15    PIT      1.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  58.2   3.08   2.30  0.78
16    IND      0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  47.0  -2.98  -1.00 -1.98
17    BUF      0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  62.9   4.39   3.80  0.59
18    BAL      0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  55.0  -0.46   1.20 -1.66
19    TB      -1.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  42.2  -1.98  -2.40  0.42
20    TEN     -7.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  51.8  -1.91   0.55 -2.45
21    ARI     -1.0    10   4   5   1  45.0  63.7   2.89   3.60 -0.71
22    NO      -1.5    10   4   6   0  40.0  49.7   1.68  -0.10  1.78
23    SD      -2.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  54.0   2.40   1.40  1.00
24    GB      -2.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  41.1  -3.47  -2.90 -0.57
25    CAR     -2.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  49.3   0.54  -0.20  0.74
26    LA      -3.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  32.4  -4.19  -3.80 -0.39
27    CIN     -2.5    10   3   6   1  35.0  39.8  -1.21  -2.70  1.49
28    NYJ     -3.5    10   3   7   0  30.0  26.8  -6.37  -6.50  0.13
29    JAX     -4.5    10   2   8   0  20.0  26.3  -8.72  -7.20 -1.52
30    CHI     -7.5    10   2   8   0  20.0  20.8  -8.59  -8.00 -0.59
31    SF     -15.0    10   1   9   0  10.0  20.0  -8.07 -10.90  2.83
32    CLE    -14.0    11   0  11   0   0.0  13.6 -11.22 -12.82  1.60

Pretty soon, it will become time to predict possible playoff probabilities.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
146        82     56.2      27.67        18.09      9.58

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.97


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      7.0     9   8   1   0  88.9  77.5   7.58   9.78 -2.20
2     NE      11.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  76.1   9.20   8.67  0.53
3     KC       6.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  64.3   2.86   4.11 -1.25
4     OAK      3.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  56.9   3.06   2.44  0.61
5     DEN      5.0    10   7   3   0  70.0  66.7   5.38   5.00  0.38
6     SEA      2.0     8   5   2   1  68.8  64.2   3.64   3.62  0.01
7     HOU      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  38.7  -3.47  -3.00 -0.47
8     NYG      1.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  49.2   1.02  -0.22  1.24
9     WAS      2.0     9   5   3   1  61.1  51.1   1.04   0.33  0.71
10    ATL      4.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  59.0   5.26   3.70  1.56
11    PHI      9.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  73.6   7.14   7.33 -0.19
12    MIA      3.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  49.3   0.22  -0.22  0.44
13    MIN      3.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  60.3   1.68   2.56 -0.87
14    BAL      2.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  59.4  -0.14   2.44 -2.58
15    DET      1.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  49.6  -1.61  -0.11 -1.50
16    BUF      4.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  65.0   5.25   5.00  0.25
17    ARI      0.0     9   4   4   1  50.0  66.6   3.19   4.67 -1.48
18    TEN     -3.0    10   5   5   0  50.0  53.7  -0.96   1.30 -2.26
19    NO      -1.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  50.6   1.88   0.22  1.65
20    GB      -1.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  46.4  -2.08  -1.22 -0.86
21    IND     -3.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  44.9  -3.51  -1.89 -1.62
22    LA      -3.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  34.3  -4.52  -3.78 -0.74
23    TB      -5.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  41.7  -2.89  -2.89 -0.01
24    PIT     -5.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  52.8   3.12   0.89  2.23
25    SD      -2.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  53.6   2.52   1.40  1.12
26    CIN     -1.0     9   3   5   1  38.9  41.5  -1.42  -2.56  1.13
27    CAR     -3.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  48.3  -0.10  -0.56  0.45
28    NYJ     -3.5    10   3   7   0  30.0  28.5  -6.38  -6.50  0.12
29    JAX     -4.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  28.1  -8.40  -7.22 -1.17
30    CHI     -9.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  22.3  -8.84  -8.22 -0.62
31    SF     -17.0     9   1   8   0  11.1  22.6  -8.75 -10.67  1.91
32    CLE    -12.5    10   0  10   0   0.0  16.7 -10.98 -12.60  1.62