2019 Season Super Bowl prediction

The methodology for this prediction is here.

I managed to watch big chunks of both conference games. The Titans made a game of it for one half. They ran out of steam in the third quarter and ended up losing, but the team overall looked good. The Packers were crushed. The score doesn’t really show how bad the game actually was.

Last I read, Kansas City was favored by one point in the odds. My system favors them by a lot more, more like 5 points.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	0.683	0.66	5.1

 

2019 Season. Conference Championship Odds.

Conventional wisdom went 3-1 and my picks went 2-2; perhaps I would have done better if the Seahawks hadn’t suffered so many injuries at the end of the season. The Titans continue their upset ways while Green Bay, Kansas City, and San Francisco won as favorites.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	0.263	0.56	2.0
Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans	1.031	0.74	7.6

 

2019 Season. Second Round Odds.

The first round of the playoffs were full of upsets. The Titans upset the Patriots and the Vikings upset the Saints. Both upsets were driven by ground games that both scored and consumed the clock.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Minnesota Vikings	0.372	0.59	2.8
Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks	-0.194	0.45	-1.4
Baltimore Ravens	Tennessee Titans	0.985	0.73	7.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	0.429	0.61	3.2

 

2019 NFL Playoff Season. Playoff Worksheet. First round playoff odds.

The methodology of this work is described here.

This year, the formulas favor the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks. Baltimore has the advantage in any possible encounter in the AFC. Seattle has the advantage over any team not named the New Orleans Saints. As the Saints lose their HFA against Green Bay, they are not favored against Green Bay. The odds of a Seattle-New Orleans matchup are small.

2019 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	San Francisco 49ers	0.660	0	0.125	0.785
2	Green Bay Packers	0.660	0.747	-0.225	1.182
3	New Orleans Saints	0.660	0.747	0.015	1.422
4	Philadelphia Eagles	0.660	0.747	-0.511	0.896
5	Seattle Seahawks	0.0	0.747	0.690	1.376
6	Minnesota Vikings	0.0	0.747	-0.334	0.413
AFC
1	Baltimore Ravens	0.660	0.747	0.015	1.422
2	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	0.061	1.468
3	New England Patriots	0.660	0.747	-0.535	0.872
4	Houston Texans	0.660	0.747	0.292	1.699
5	Buffalo Bills	0.0	0.747	-0.380	0.367
6	Tennessee Titans	0.0	0.747	-0.310	0.437

 

The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

Because the worksheet above can be hard to decipher, for the first week of the 2019 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Minnesota Vikings	1.009	0.733	7.5
Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	-0.541	0.368	-4.0
New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans	0.435	0.607	3.2
Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills	1.332	0.791	9.9

 

2018 NFL Playoffs, Super Bowl Predictions.

Well, the system went 0-2, and probably would have gone 1-1 had the refs been able to call pass interference in the last two minutes of the Saints-Rams game. The story as I gather it, is the lack of experience in the current crop of referees and the lack of good positioning during the infraction. Count me among the folks who think “the booth” should be able to overrule this kind of blatant miss on the field.

The other factors that don’t seem to change is that New England outplays its strength of schedule and that Kansas City underperforms its playoff predictions. All that said, the formula predicts a close game with the Rams emerging with a victory.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Los Angeles Rams	New England Patriots	0.380	0.59	2.8

 

2018 NFL Playoffs, Conference Round (third round).

Not much to say, other than my system went 4-0 predicting winners. It did predict a bigger margin of victory in the Kansas City game, and closer games than most would have expected in the Saints game and Rams game. I don’t think in all honesty, that my odds were that much different from Vegas odds.

Once again, my data favor the home team, and by more than HFA. In both cases the home teams faced tougher competition throughout the year than the challenger.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	LA Rams	0.986	0.73	7.3
Kansas City Chiefs	NE Patriots	1.162	0.76	8.6

 
In this instance the old and new formulas are close in terms of their predictions. That is because the strength of schedule adjustments between the teams are a little larger in the old formula.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds Old Formula
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	LA Rams	0.89	0.71	6.6
Kansas City Chiefs	NE Patriots	1.092	0.75	8.1

 

2018 NFL Playoffs. Second (Divisional) Round Odds.

In terms of picking winners, the system went 2-2, unable really to deal with tough underdogs such as the Chargers and Colts. It picked Philadelphia, which by traditional means was the most in favor of the home team, though that game was one foot from being a Chicago win. So it went 2-0 in the NFC and 0-2 in the AFC.

In this round the home teams are favored in all four contests, but by varying amounts compared to the spread.

The methodology of how we pick is given here. The 2018 worksheet is given here. And as an aside, Doug Farrar’s new football book is very very good and I recommend that hard core fans buy it.

In the worksheet below, the factor 0.66 is the logit of home field advantage as calculated by the logistic regression. That’s equivalent to a HFA of 4.9 points. The playoff HFA of 62.7% is equivalent to 3.8 points. So, if you prefer 3.8 or even 3, just subtract 1.1 points or 1.9 points from the points margin respectively. Just for yucks we calculated the Rams and Cowboys odds both with the 0.66 factor of the fitted formula and the 0.518 factor of actual results, the latter in parentheses.

Whether I stick with this new formula is up in the air. I have an older formula that is much the same but not inclined to generate 15 point advantages, a bit tamer, if you will. We’ll see. I don’t do this for a living, just for fun, and the methodology link above gives the old formula.

That said, the second round worksheets.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	0.685	0.66	5.1
LA Rams	Dallas Cowboys	0.48 (0.34)	0.62 (0.58)	3.6 (2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs	Indianapolis Colts	2.067	0.89	15
New England Patriots	LA Chargers	0.942	0.72	7.0

 
Update: decided to add the old formula predictions, and also use the measured HFA factor.

 

Second Round Playoff Odds Old Formula
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	0.546	0.63	4.0
LA Rams	Dallas Cowboys	0.313	0.58	2.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Indianapolis Colts	1.707	0.85	12.6
New England Patriots	LA Chargers	0.42	0.60	3.1

 

2018 NFL Playoffs. Playoff worksheet. First round odds.

It’s a new playoff season, and another time to try our new playoff formulas. Methodology of this work is described in depth here.

The playoff formulas like New Orleans and Kansas City. They like Baltimore, but Baltimore, which will lose home field after the first round, is unlikely to be favored after that point. The formulas place a substantial penalty on the lack of playoff experience, and so does not favor Chicago, the Chargers, or the Colts. Update: Baltimore has not been in the playoff since 2014, and so the results have been amended.

2017 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	New Orleans Saints	0.660	0.747	0.192	1.599
2	LA Rams	0.660	0.747	-0.134	1.273
3	Chicago Bears	0.660	0.0	-0.711	-0.051
4	Dallas Cowboys	0.660	0.747	0.046	1.453
5	Seattle Seahawks	0.0	0.747	-0.170	0.577
6	Philadelphia Eagles	0.0	0.747	0.167	0.914
AFC
1	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	-0.033	1.374
2	New England Patriots	0.660	0.747	-0.535	0.872
3	Houston Texans	0.660	0.747	-0.465	0.942
4	Baltimore Ravens	0.660	0	0.195	0.855
5	LA Chargers	0.0	0.0	-0.070	-0.070
6	Indianapolis Colts	0.0	0.0	-0.693	-0.693

 
The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

Because the worksheet above can be hard to decipher, for the first week of the 2018 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles	-0.965	0.276	-7.1
Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	0.876	0.706	6.5
Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	1.635	0.836	12.1
Baltimore Ravens	LA Chargers	0.925	0.716	6.8

 

But to summarize, the formulas used here were found by logistic regressions and each element in the formula has a playoff significance of 95%. I promise if the more common offense metrics could say that, they would. I’ll also note that in vogue stats like FPI don’t really give answers markedly different from other common offensive metrics, such as Pythagorean expectation.

That said, offensive metrics like Pythagorean Expectation favor Seattle over Dallas by about half a point, or 52% win probability for Seattle. Offensive stats still favor Baltimore, but not as much. Simple Ranking stats favor Chicago by around 8 points, circa 75% WP. Houston-Indianapolis have approximately even offensive stats, so the difference between the teams is about 3 points. HFA is worth a bit more in the playoffs, circa 63%.

 

NFL Week 8, 2018 Season

It’s an interesting part of the season, as the trade deadline approaches and teams get talent to reload for the latter half of the season. Amari Cooper is in Dallas, Demaryius Thomas is in Houston, and Golden Tate has been traded to the Eagles. “Snacks” Harrison is in Detroit.

Despite the fire sale in Oakland, they are not on the bottom of the charts, just yet, saved by a half game. Comparing records to Pythagoreans, Washington, Cinncinnati and Miami are the teams most overperforming presently. By Simple Ranking, Buffalo, despite their two wins, is the worst team in football.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
121        73     60.3      29.07        18.32     10.74

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.91


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA       9.5     8   8   0   0 100.0  82.5  11.20  13.62 -2.42
2     KC       8.5     8   7   1   0  87.5  73.3  11.63  10.62  1.00
3     NO       6.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  67.1   6.39   7.29 -0.89
4     NE       7.0     8   6   2   0  75.0  67.8   5.90   6.75 -0.85
5     WAS      6.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  56.2   1.38   1.71 -0.33
6     CAR      4.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  61.3   4.47   3.71  0.76
7     LAC      2.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  62.7   2.32   4.57 -2.25
8     PIT      3.0     7   4   2   1  64.3  62.1   5.70   4.57  1.13
9     HOU      3.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  61.8   0.76   3.75 -2.99
10    CIN      2.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  44.9   0.33  -2.00  2.33
11    SEA      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  68.4   5.66   5.71 -0.05
12    CHI      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  70.4   5.68   7.14 -1.46
13    MIN      1.0     8   4   3   1  56.2  50.7  -1.62   0.25 -1.87
14    BAL      5.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  74.2   7.29   7.50 -0.21
15    PHI      1.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  59.5   0.93   2.75 -1.82
16    GB       0.0     7   3   3   1  50.0  50.8  -0.67   0.29 -0.95
17    MIA     -3.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  33.9  -6.41  -5.62 -0.79
18    ATL     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  42.1  -1.74  -3.14  1.40
19    TEN     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  37.2  -4.62  -3.00 -1.62
20    DET     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  43.9  -2.56  -2.14 -0.41
21    TB      -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  39.4  -2.60  -4.57  1.97
22    DAL     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  59.3   2.57   2.43  0.14
23    IND     -3.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  55.9   0.32   2.25 -1.93
24    DEN     -3.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  47.7   2.45  -0.75  3.20
25    JAX     -4.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  33.4  -3.30  -4.50  1.20
26    NYJ     -6.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  47.0  -2.12  -1.00 -1.12
27    CLE     -3.0     8   2   5   1  31.2  34.7  -3.50  -5.12  1.62
28    ARI     -6.5     8   2   6   0  25.0  15.1  -9.99 -11.12  1.14
29    BUF    -15.0     8   2   6   0  25.0   8.2 -12.91 -14.12  1.21
30    OAK    -14.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  20.9  -9.71 -11.43  1.72
31    SF      -5.5     8   1   7   0  12.5  28.9  -7.83  -7.88  0.04
32    NYG     -6.0     8   1   7   0  12.5  28.7  -5.44  -6.88  1.43

 

NFL Week 7, 2018 Season

Sorry if this item has come out a little later than usual. There was a mini-emergency at my work and most of my time (and efforts) were concentrated on that.

Upcoming is the contest in London between the Eagles and the Jaguars. I’m actually looking forward to that.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
107        65     60.7      28.96        18.20     10.77

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.60


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     LA      12.0     7   7   0   0 100.0  82.9  13.26  15.29 -2.03
2     KC      10.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  71.7  12.33  11.14  1.19
3     NO       4.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  64.2   6.10   6.83 -0.73
4     NE       7.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  61.4   5.87   5.00  0.87
5     LAC      2.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  61.4   3.49   4.57 -1.08
6     WAS      4.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  52.6  -0.10   0.83 -0.93
7     CAR      3.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  55.2   0.40   1.83 -1.43
8     MIN      2.0     7   4   2   1  64.3  54.6  -1.09   1.71 -2.81
9     PIT      1.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  56.8   5.35   2.83  2.52
10    GB       0.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  51.8  -2.22   0.67 -2.88
11    BAL     12.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  80.9  10.17  10.71 -0.55
12    HOU      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  54.8  -1.39   1.57 -2.96
13    MIA      3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  39.8  -4.15  -3.71 -0.43
14    CIN      1.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  43.6   0.22  -2.71  2.93
15    DET      3.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  49.6  -1.19  -0.17 -1.02
16    CHI      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  65.0   4.50   6.00 -1.50
17    SEA      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  62.8   5.01   4.33  0.68
18    TB       0.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  39.7  -3.00  -4.83  1.83
19    ATL     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  42.9  -2.88  -3.14  0.27
20    TEN     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  38.5  -4.20  -3.00 -1.20
21    PHI     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  57.1  -0.34   2.29 -2.62
22    DEN     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  50.4   3.29   0.14  3.15
23    DAL     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  58.3   1.36   2.43 -1.07
24    JAX     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  35.5  -3.33  -4.29  0.96
25    NYJ     -4.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  52.2  -0.42   0.86 -1.27
26    CLE     -3.0     7   2   4   1  35.7  39.8  -1.73  -3.71  1.98
27    IND     -4.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  51.4  -0.72   0.57 -1.29
28    BUF    -11.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  11.9 -12.85 -13.43  0.58
29    OAK    -12.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  22.8  -7.80 -11.00  3.20
30    NYG     -5.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  31.4  -6.87  -6.86 -0.01
31    SF      -8.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  30.2  -6.56  -8.57  2.01
32    ARI    -10.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  14.2 -10.53 -13.14  2.61