I’ll continue posting my odds, though this has not been the best season for them. Jacksonville continued to be best modeled by their median point spread, as opposed to their playoff formula. Philadelphia outperformed any reasonable prediction of their play once Wentz went down.

My system gives an edge to New England. Philadelphia played a tougher schedule but lacks playoff experience by my system. There is no home field in the Superbowl.

Super Bowl Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles 0.586 0.642 4.3
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Outside of the New England game, all the games were good and exciting, from the final goal line stand by the Eagles, to the win with ten seconds left by the Vikings. The Jacksonville Jaguars are just not well managed by this system. It was easy to see that through the year that they were a boom or bust team. They could win big or lose big, and in the game with the Steelers, they were enough in “win big” mode that the Steelers could not keep up.

Philadelphia won because of their stout defense, a Nick Foles that gave them a AYA of 8.2 for the game, much akin to Carson Wentz’s average.

To remind people, the 2017 worksheet is here, and the methodology is here. The odds for the next round are below.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles Minnesota Vikings -0.604 0.353 -4.5
New England Patriots Jacksonville Jaguars 1.872 0.867 13.9

The first round is over and in terms of predicting winners, not my best (by my count, 1-2-1, as we had Jax and Bills in a de facto tie). I was pleased that the model got Rams and Atlanta correct, and the Sunday games all came down to the wire. One or two plays and my formal results would have been impressive. Still, back to the predictions for this week.

To add some spice, we will predict results for New Orleans normally, and also as if Drew Brees is elite. Values in parentheses are the elite numbers. With elite status or no, Minnesota is still favored in this data set.

The only home team not favored is Philadelphia. We discussed this in part in this article.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles Atlanta Falcons -0.878 0.294 -6.5
Minnesota Vikings New Orleans Saints 1.231 (0.484) 0.774 (0.619) 9.1 (3.6)
New England Patriots Tennessee Titans 1.674 0.842 12.4
Pittsburgh Steelers Jacksonville Jaguars 1.915 0.872 14

As I’m really away from home and short of time, I’ll mention my methodology is described in depth here.

The first table is the worksheet. Values will not change throughout the playoffs.

2017 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank Name Home Field Adv Playoff Experience SOS Total Score
1 Philadelphia Eagles 0.660 0 -0.216 0.444
2 Minnesota Vikings 0.660 0.747 0.301 1.708
3 Los Angeles Rams 0.660 0.0 -0.046 0.614
4 New Orleans Saints 0.660 0 0.471 1.131
5 Carolina Panthers 0.0 0.747 0.629 1.376
6 Atlanta Falcons 0.0 0.747 0.575 1.322
AFC
1 New England Patriots 0.660 0.747 -0.377 1.030
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 0.660 0.747 -0.334 1.073
3 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.660 0 -0.842 -0.182
4 Kansas City Chiefs 0.660 0.747 -0.404 1.003
5 Tennessee Titans 0.0 0.0 -0.644 -0.644
6 Buffalo Bills 0.0 0.0 -0.146 -0.146

 

LA is not favored by this model and neither are AFC teams. The NFC South’s toughness shows through in the SOS marks for this data set. Minnesota and/or NFC South Teams largely have advantages over almost any matchup the AFC can offer. Finally, an open Q is, is Drew Brees elite enough that his team should be granted the PPX bonus? For now I’d consider this a question to be answered later.

This second table shows odds for the first round, calculated for you. The only home team it favors is Kansas City.

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
Los Angeles Rams Atlanta Falcons -0.708 0.330 -5.2
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers -0.245 0.439 -1.8
Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills -0.036 0.491 -0.3
Kansas City Chiefs Tennessee Titans 1.647 0.838 12.1

Last set of regular data for the year. Going to try and grind out playoff stats before I head off for the first. Atlanta takes the final playoff spot in the NFC, and the Bills and Titans make the playoffs in the AFC.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
256       145     56.6      27.63        15.81     11.81

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.69


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      12.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  76.4   8.89  10.13 -1.24
2     MIN      9.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  75.4   9.12   8.13  0.99
3     PHI      8.5    16  13   3   0  81.3  76.4   9.41  10.13 -0.71
4     PIT      3.5    16  13   3   0  81.3  67.8   5.02   6.13 -1.10
5     NO       9.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  70.2   9.17   7.63  1.55
6     LA       5.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  73.2   9.16   9.31 -0.15
7     CAR      3.0    16  11   5   0  68.8  57.0   4.32   2.25  2.07
8     JAX      9.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  76.7   6.54   9.31 -2.77
9     KC       7.5    16  10   6   0  62.5  63.3   3.42   4.75 -1.33
10    ATL      3.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  57.6   4.26   2.38  1.89
11    BAL      7.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  67.1   3.40   5.75 -2.35
12    DAL      4.5    16   9   7   0  56.3  54.3   1.60   1.38  0.22
13    BUF      4.5    16   9   7   0  56.3  38.6  -4.04  -3.56 -0.48
14    DET      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  55.8   2.72   2.13  0.60
15    SEA      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  56.5   1.89   2.13 -0.24
16    LAC      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  67.2   3.64   5.19 -1.54
17    TEN      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  45.7  -3.50  -1.38 -2.12
18    ARI     -1.5    16   8   8   0  50.0  36.7  -3.72  -4.13  0.41
19    CIN     -3.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  37.8  -4.98  -3.69 -1.29
20    GB      -5.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  38.0  -1.90  -4.00  2.10
21    WAS     -5.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  41.6  -1.30  -2.88  1.58
22    SF      -2.5    16   6  10   0  37.5  40.3  -2.85  -3.25  0.40
23    OAK     -4.5    16   6  10   0  37.5  36.0  -4.73  -4.50 -0.23
24    MIA     -7.0    16   6  10   0  37.5  28.9  -6.26  -7.00  0.74
25    TB      -3.0    16   5  11   0  31.3  41.3  -1.28  -2.94  1.66
26    CHI     -4.5    16   5  11   0  31.3  37.3  -1.29  -3.50  2.21
27    NYJ     -6.0    16   5  11   0  31.3  33.9  -4.95  -5.25  0.30
28    DEN     -8.5    16   5  11   0  31.3  32.1  -6.73  -5.81 -0.91
29    IND     -5.0    16   4  12   0  25.0  24.0 -10.10  -8.81 -1.29
30    HOU     -7.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  33.5  -6.43  -6.13 -0.30
31    NYG     -8.5    16   3  13   0  18.8  22.7  -7.57  -8.88  1.31
32    CLE    -13.0    16   0  16   0   0.0  18.1 -10.95 -11.00  0.05

Playoffs become more and more decided. All division winners are decided but in the NFC South, where it will either be Carolina or New Orleans. Five of the six NFC slots are sewn up, with Atlanta and Seattle competing for the 6th playoff slot. In the AFC, all the division winners are decided, with the 5th and 6th playoff slots in play. Baltimore has over a 90% change to take one slot, according to Five Thirty Eight, with Tennessee at about 60%, and the Chargers and the Bills with marginal chances for a playoff bid.


Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       135     56.2      27.82        15.90     11.92

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.79


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      9.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  78.2  10.32  11.20 -0.88
2     NE       8.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  75.2   8.59   9.47 -0.87
3     MIN      8.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  75.0   9.14   7.80  1.34
4     PIT      3.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  68.9   5.79   6.27 -0.48
5     NO      10.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  73.3  10.45   8.60  1.85
6     LA       6.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  78.0  11.30  11.33 -0.03
7     CAR      3.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  60.0   5.01   3.20  1.81
8     JAX     12.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  79.0   7.46  10.27 -2.81
9     KC       8.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  64.1   3.97   4.87 -0.90
10    BAL      7.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  69.9   4.23   6.40 -2.17
11    SEA      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  57.7   2.40   2.40 -0.00
12    ATL      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  55.7   3.49   1.73  1.76
13    DET      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  51.9   1.41   0.67  0.75
14    DAL      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  53.3   0.76   1.07 -0.31
15    TEN      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  44.4  -4.38  -1.80 -2.58
16    BUF      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  36.2  -4.37  -4.20 -0.17
17    LAC      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  64.6   2.93   4.20 -1.27
18    WAS     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  42.5  -0.32  -2.53  2.22
19    GB      -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  41.6  -0.71  -2.67  1.96
20    ARI     -5.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  34.8  -4.34  -4.53  0.19
21    OAK     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  38.7  -4.00  -3.47 -0.54
22    CIN     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  35.3  -5.81  -4.20 -1.61
23    MIA     -8.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  28.1  -6.02  -7.07  1.04
24    SF      -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  35.1  -4.87  -4.87 -0.01
25    CHI     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  39.3  -1.20  -2.87  1.66
26    NYJ     -5.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  36.5  -4.56  -4.27 -0.29
27    DEN    -10.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  30.7  -7.28  -6.00 -1.28
28    TB      -3.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  38.8  -2.48  -3.60  1.12
29    HOU     -7.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  33.7  -5.62  -5.93  0.32
30    IND     -6.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  20.6 -10.94 -10.00 -0.94
31    NYG    -10.0    15   2  13   0  13.3  19.6  -8.61 -10.00  1.39
32    CLE    -14.0    15   0  15   0   0.0  15.9 -11.72 -11.47 -0.26

Things begin to clear in the playoff picture. Atlanta wins, they are in. New England beats the Steelers, again. Aaron Rogers has no magical comeback. Derek Carr tries a little too much to win a game. Jacksonville still appears to be a major spoiler come playoff time.

Week 14 stats

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       115     55.3      27.94        16.16     11.78

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.63


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI     10.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  77.9  11.51  11.85 -0.33
2     PIT      3.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  65.4   4.49   5.31 -0.82
3     NE       8.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  73.4   8.26   9.08 -0.81
4     MIN      8.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  67.2   7.70   5.69  2.01
5     JAX     12.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  78.3   7.51   9.77 -2.26
6     NO       9.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  71.0  10.33   8.23  2.10
7     LA       6.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  74.2  10.12  10.08  0.05
8     CAR      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  58.8   5.14   2.92  2.22
9     SEA      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  64.1   3.71   4.77 -1.06
10    ATL      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  57.8   4.04   2.54  1.50
11    TEN      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  45.1  -4.64  -1.62 -3.02
12    DAL     11.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  54.7   1.23   1.69 -0.46
13    KC       7.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  58.4   2.47   3.08 -0.60
14    BAL      7.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  66.2   4.83   5.54 -0.71
15    DET      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  51.8   1.83   0.69  1.14
16    GB       3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  46.2  -0.10  -1.31  1.21
17    BUF      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  37.8  -4.37  -3.85 -0.52
18    LAC      1.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  67.7   4.26   5.62 -1.35
19    OAK     -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  40.8  -4.62  -3.08 -1.55
20    MIA     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  31.4  -5.07  -6.31  1.24
21    ARI     -6.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  30.3  -5.75  -6.62  0.86
22    CIN     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  38.3  -5.90  -3.46 -2.44
23    NYJ     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  39.9  -4.78  -3.46 -1.32
24    WAS     -8.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  37.9  -1.12  -4.54  3.42
25    CHI     -3.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  37.1  -1.23  -3.85  2.62
26    TB      -5.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  39.2  -3.10  -3.69  0.59
27    HOU     -6.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  45.3  -2.74  -1.77 -0.97
28    DEN    -10.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  30.2  -7.05  -6.62 -0.44
29    SF      -3.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  30.1  -6.66  -6.62 -0.04
30    IND     -4.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  22.0 -11.02 -10.08 -0.95
31    NYG    -10.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  22.2  -8.32  -9.38  1.06
32    CLE    -12.0    13   0  13   0   0.0  19.9 -10.96 -10.62 -0.34

Week 15 stats

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       124     55.4      28.00        16.15     11.85

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.74


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      9.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  77.5  10.65  11.36 -0.70
2     MIN      8.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  72.2   8.76   7.21  1.55
3     NE       7.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  73.1   8.22   8.64 -0.43
4     PIT      3.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  64.2   4.52   4.71 -0.20
5     JAX     14.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  83.1   8.90  11.79 -2.88
6     NO       9.5    14  10   4   0  71.4  72.4  10.40   8.50  1.90
7     LA       8.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  78.6  11.89  11.86  0.03
8     CAR      4.5    14  10   4   0  71.4  59.9   5.33   3.21  2.12
9     ATL      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  58.1   3.81   2.57  1.24
10    BAL     10.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  69.4   4.77   6.36 -1.59
11    KC       7.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  61.6   3.75   4.07 -0.32
12    DAL      7.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.3   1.31   1.79 -0.47
13    BUF      4.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  40.0  -3.80  -3.00 -0.80
14    DET      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  53.7   2.47   1.36  1.12
15    SEA      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  56.0   1.74   1.93 -0.19
16    TEN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  44.9  -5.46  -1.64 -3.81
17    GB       0.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  44.9  -0.37  -1.71  1.34
18    LAC     -0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  63.3   3.33   4.00 -0.67
19    OAK     -2.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  40.4  -4.15  -3.07 -1.08
20    WAS     -5.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  39.0  -1.01  -3.86  2.85
21    MIA     -5.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  30.2  -5.50  -6.43  0.93
22    ARI     -5.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  29.7  -5.80  -6.50  0.70
23    CIN     -3.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  32.4  -6.96  -5.14 -1.81
24    NYJ     -5.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  37.8  -4.27  -4.07 -0.20
25    DEN     -8.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  33.2  -6.51  -5.29 -1.22
26    SF      -3.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  31.3  -6.77  -6.00 -0.77
27    TB      -4.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  38.9  -2.63  -3.64  1.01
28    CHI     -4.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  34.9  -1.71  -4.29  2.58
29    HOU     -6.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  38.3  -4.73  -4.36 -0.38
30    IND     -5.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  20.6 -11.70 -10.21 -1.49
31    NYG     -8.5    14   2  12   0  14.3  22.9  -7.21  -9.07  1.86
32    CLE    -13.0    14   0  14   0   0.0  17.8 -11.28 -11.07 -0.21