It was a moderately surprising week. Two of the best NFC teams played on Thursday night and Philadelphia came out the victor. That said, you can no longer say that the Eagles are unambiguously the best 1 loss team as Kansas City has lost once, and has already beaten the Eagles. New Orleans looks good. Atlanta fans are puzzled over the loss to Miami. Green Bay suffered a huge loss with Aaron Rogers breaking a collarbone. The Giants are no longer winless, having beaten Denver.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
91         45     49.5      27.68        16.76     10.92

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.68


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     KC       8.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  69.6  12.52   7.83  4.69
2     PHI      4.0     6   5   1   0  83.3  69.2   8.52   7.17  1.35
3     MIN      6.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  61.1   4.45   3.17  1.28
4     PIT      4.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  59.6   2.96   2.67  0.29
5     NE       4.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  55.2   6.61   2.17  4.44
6     LA       3.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  66.7   3.91   6.83 -2.92
7     GB       3.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  55.7   1.34   2.00 -0.66
8     CAR      3.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  53.2   4.79   1.00  3.79
9     NO      14.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  64.5   8.78   5.80  2.98
10    BUF      6.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  62.1   3.75   3.00  0.75
11    ATL      4.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  56.9   1.96   2.40 -0.44
12    SEA      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  65.2  -0.51   4.60 -5.11
13    DEN      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  57.1   1.47   2.20 -0.73
14    WAS      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  52.3   3.88   0.80  3.08
15    MIA      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  29.8  -4.14  -4.60  0.46
16    JAX      9.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  71.8   7.92   7.67  0.25
17    BAL      5.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  44.4  -3.51  -1.67 -1.84
18    DET      2.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  55.2   3.18   2.00  1.18
19    HOU      0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  62.2   6.38   5.00  1.38
20    TEN      0.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  42.3  -4.64  -3.00 -1.64
21    NYJ     -2.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  38.4  -3.60  -3.50 -0.10
22    ARI     -4.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  31.9  -9.72  -6.50 -3.22
23    CIN     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  50.8  -0.86   0.20 -1.06
24    DAL     -4.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  46.4  -2.63  -1.40 -1.23
25    TB      -5.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  48.3  -2.23  -0.60 -1.63
26    LAC     -2.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  41.9  -0.20  -2.50  2.30
27    OAK     -3.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  48.9  -1.43  -0.33 -1.10
28    CHI     -4.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  28.5  -6.34  -7.17  0.83
29    IND     -8.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  21.0 -18.06 -12.67 -5.39
30    NYG     -4.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  35.1  -3.15  -4.50  1.35
31    SF      -3.0     6   0   6   0   0.0  33.5  -8.12  -5.50 -2.62
32    CLE     -8.5     6   0   6   0   0.0  20.2 -13.28 -10.50 -2.78
Advertisements

There is so much going on this week that my best suggestion is to prowl Youtube for the poison of your choice. I caught the end of the Vikings – Bears game, just enough to see the interception that Trubisky threw. Y A Tittle passed away. Brandon Marshall is out for the year. Odell Beckham is injured. The best team with just one loss is probably the Philadelphia Eagles.

I’m not sure how much that means, as the best team with two losses, Jacksonville, is via scoring stats, superior. But we’ve seen different Jacksonville teams show up. It’s as if the Jaguars identity hasn’t been established yet. A few more games will tell.

I know it’s still early in the season, but over the short term, home field advantage has just about vanished.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
77         39     50.6      27.61        16.16     11.45

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.92


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     KC       9.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  75.8  17.52  10.60  6.92
2     GB       4.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  64.3   3.46   5.00 -1.54
3     PHI      3.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  72.1   8.65   7.60  1.05
4     CAR      3.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  58.0   4.18   2.20  1.98
5     ATL      5.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  61.2   4.99   3.75  1.24
6     DEN      4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  69.4   6.93   6.00  0.93
7     JAX     21.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  81.9  11.16  11.20 -0.04
8     BAL     13.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  44.5  -1.91  -1.40 -0.51
9     DET      7.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  66.7   3.26   5.20 -1.94
10    BUF      6.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  63.2   5.62   3.00  2.62
11    NE       3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  53.0   8.47   1.20  7.27
12    SEA      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  66.5  -2.44   4.60 -7.04
13    PIT      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  57.7  -0.30   2.00 -2.30
14    MIN      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  54.6   1.33   1.20  0.13
15    NYJ      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  39.8  -3.60  -2.80 -0.80
16    LA       2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  66.1  -0.41   6.20 -6.61
17    NO       5.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  62.6   5.54   3.75  1.79
18    WAS     -1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  51.6   7.12   0.50  6.62
19    TB      -1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  51.7  -0.46   0.50 -0.96
20    MIA     -6.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  19.2  -6.80  -6.50 -0.30
21    HOU     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  57.4   9.56   2.80  6.76
22    IND     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  19.1 -21.30 -12.40 -8.90
23    CIN     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  50.9   0.61   0.20  0.41
24    DAL     -4.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  46.0  -3.44  -1.40 -2.04
25    TEN     -6.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  32.2  -3.96  -6.40  2.44
26    OAK     -6.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  49.3   0.71  -0.20  0.91
27    ARI    -11.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  22.0 -13.96  -8.80 -5.16
28    LAC     -2.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  39.2   0.81  -3.20  4.01
29    CHI     -6.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  20.5  -7.40  -9.20  1.80
30    SF      -3.0     5   0   5   0   0.0  29.4 -12.99  -6.20 -6.79
31    CLE     -3.0     5   0   5   0   0.0  19.9 -14.70  -9.40 -5.30
32    NYG     -5.0     5   0   5   0   0.0  23.8  -6.24  -8.00  1.76

It’s been an interesting week, if nothing else. I feel sorry for the way the game ended in Kansas City, as Washington deserved better than to give up 7 more points on the last play of the game. Buffalo surprised. The Rams look a lot more like the Rams of 1999 than they do the Rams of last year. Carolina pulled off a surprising upset. Or did they?

I’m not going to post complete OSRS and DSRS stats this time. Even SRS is a little unbelievable at this point. That said, certain comparisons are in order. The Patriots had the highest DSRS of any team last year, at around 7. This year they are -8, for a 15 point turnaround. The common issue I hear is no pass rush.

Atlanta’s SRS last year was 8.5, and this year it is around 5. Their OSRS was 11.2 or so, the best in the league and their defense was a below average -2.7. This year, Atlanta’s SRS is around 5, their OSRS a 4 and their DSRS a 1. So their DSRS has improved by almost 4 points, and their OSRS has declined by over 7 points. Matt Ryan is merely good, rather than top of the heap elite.

Dallas’s problems, if you listen to talking heads, is everything from Dak to the offensive coordinator, to the offensive line, to special teams, to the defensive coordinator, to the linebackers, with a surprising amount of fan venom directed at de-facto rookie Jaylon Smith. Getting past fan stupidity, I’ll note that OSRS and DSRS are both down, compared to last year. OSRS has shrunk less, about 2 points, while DSRS has shrunk on the order of 7 points. The issues are clearly more defensive than offensive. The new rookies (and Jaylon) have plenty of talent, but it will take time for these people to adapt to the speed of the NFL game. Dallas has replaced almost the whole of its secondary and injuries have depleted the linebackers and the backfield. People are playing that no one expected to play in the back 7.

Goff’s turnaround in performance has led to a series of questions about who is better, Dak, or Wentz or Goff. I went to high school in the same small town as Dak, so I’m hardly unbiased in this debate. The best comments I’ve seen recently are those of Mike Tanier, which I highly recommend. His Bleacher Report article, in my opinion, is a must read. Benjamin Morris reappears, in an article about two point conversions. Brian Burke recommends an article about Alex Smith, which suggests his NFL passer rating is misleading.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
63         35     55.6      28.05        15.81     12.24

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.99


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     KC      11.5     4   4   0   0 100.0  79.8  19.45  11.25  8.20
2     PIT     10.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  78.0  -2.84   7.75 -10.59
3     DET      9.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  73.8   4.36   7.25 -2.89
4     BUF      7.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  71.1  10.48   4.75  5.73
5     GB       5.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  66.6   0.97   5.25 -4.28
6     ATL      5.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  61.4   5.04   3.75  1.29
7     DEN      4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  69.8  10.78   6.00  4.78
8     CAR      4.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  58.0   6.70   2.00  4.70
9     LA       3.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  71.2   2.77   9.25 -6.48
10    PHI      2.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  58.4   9.26   2.75  6.51
11    TB       2.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  57.7  -2.67   2.33 -5.00
12    JAX      9.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  76.1   7.52   8.75 -1.23
13    NO       5.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  62.9   6.72   3.75  2.97
14    DAL      3.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  47.7  -2.05  -0.75 -1.30
15    OAK      2.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  60.4   7.92   3.00  4.92
16    MIN      1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  52.9   2.14   0.75  1.39
17    HOU      0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  66.1   7.77   5.50  2.27
18    NE       0.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  50.6  10.41   0.25 10.16
19    WAS     -1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  51.7  10.35   0.50  9.85
20    SEA     -1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  64.5  -4.52   4.25 -8.77
21    BAL     -1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  29.7 -11.25  -5.00 -6.25
22    TEN     -2.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  33.4  -1.83  -6.50  4.67
23    NYJ     -3.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  35.2   0.39  -4.25  4.64
24    ARI     -4.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  35.0 -12.23  -4.25 -7.98
25    MIA    -14.0     3   1   2   0  33.3   7.8  -7.37 -10.67  3.30
26    CIN     -3.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  46.6  -7.04  -0.75 -6.29
27    CHI    -13.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  16.9 -10.62 -10.75  0.13
28    IND    -15.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  12.5 -25.40 -16.25 -9.15
29    LAC     -2.5     4   0   4   0   0.0  31.7   2.78  -5.25  8.03
30    SF      -3.0     4   0   4   0   0.0  25.8  -8.82  -7.00 -1.82
31    CLE     -8.5     4   0   4   0   0.0  17.0 -22.63 -11.00 -11.63
32    NYG     -8.5     4   0   4   0   0.0  20.2  -6.52  -8.75  2.23

Just as the pundits decided that the NFL was boring, some truly epic games were played. The Thursday night game was good, Rams-49ers 41-38, the Atlanta – Detroit game was the kind people will remember for many years to come. On the back of a ferocious defensive rush Dallas got out of its Denver malaise and began playing football again. Even at 37, Larry Fitzgerald is a monster player.

I should warn people that simple rankings are not much to be believed at this point. It takes a few games to have enough results to be tame. You can add in games from the previous year, but then people might not recognize just how pathetic the New York Giants have been.

The nature of the recent sports scene has made me realize how much I miss Bill Simmon’s Grantland and Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats. Both of these were edgy and ambitious, understanding of the new analytics and doing their best to apply it to games. Quite the opposite of the Sports Illustrated football preview, which was parochial and stodgy and the entire opposite of fearless. No, they were a dull recitation of how orthodox and Northeastern US focused they have become, statistically/sabermetrically illiterate in ways that all-22 will not fix. It read like a Frank Caliendo parody of Sports Illustrated, a bit senile and stuck in their ways.  So I cancelled my SI subscription.

I suspect I bought into Sports Illustrated because of how much I hated the form factor of ESPN the Magazine, which was foisted onto me without my wanting it for being a ESPN Insider. The classic ESPN cover was always an angry black man with his arms crossed who looked like he wanted to mug readers in a dark alley. They never seemed to get that Magic Johnson had hit on an incredible formula for being popular, which was to smile. I much prefer the look of people who seem as if I could share a meal with them.

But I guess people want numbers at this point. I can ponder the desert of cutting edge sports analysis later.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
47         27     57.4      27.87        15.70     12.17

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.41


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     KC      14.0     3   3   0   0 100.0  84.1  17.10  12.00  5.10
2     ATL      6.0     3   3   0   0 100.0  71.9   3.66   7.00 -3.34
3     JAX     22.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  87.0  13.38  12.67  0.72
4     BAL     14.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  45.1  -6.79  -1.00 -5.79
5     DET     12.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  73.5   0.36   7.33 -6.97
6     DAL     11.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  52.7  -5.56   0.67 -6.22
7     OAK     10.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  70.2  14.77   6.00  8.77
8     MIN     10.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  62.5   4.42   3.33  1.09
9     BUF      9.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  73.6   6.50   4.33  2.17
10    WAS      7.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  64.0  14.20   3.67 10.53
11    TEN      6.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  67.9  14.25   5.67  8.58
12    CAR      6.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  59.9   2.74   1.67  1.08
13    NE       3.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  53.5   6.19   1.33  4.86
14    DEN      3.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  70.0   5.91   6.00 -0.09
15    PHI      3.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  60.4  10.34   3.00  7.34
16    GB       3.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  50.0  -4.42   0.00 -4.42
17    PIT      3.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  69.9  -1.26   4.67 -5.93
18    LA       2.0     3   2   1   0  66.7  77.1   6.48  10.67 -4.18
19    TB       2.5     2   1   1   0  50.0  59.7   1.73   2.50 -0.77
20    MIA     -6.0     2   1   1   0  50.0  20.8  -7.68  -6.00 -1.68
21    HOU     -3.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  24.3  -5.31  -7.00  1.69
22    IND     -3.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  14.1 -20.69 -12.33 -8.35
23    SEA     -6.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  33.1  -2.41  -3.67  1.26
24    CHI     -6.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  21.3  -5.95  -7.33  1.38
25    NYJ     -9.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  24.8  -2.14  -6.67  4.53
26    NO     -10.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  44.4   2.78  -1.67  4.45
27    ARI    -11.0     3   1   2   0  33.3  26.1 -15.29  -6.67 -8.63
28    CLE     -3.0     3   0   3   0   0.0  26.1 -16.24  -6.67 -9.58
29    SF      -3.0     3   0   3   0   0.0  20.4  -6.06  -8.33  2.27
30    LAC     -3.0     3   0   3   0   0.0  24.3  -1.22  -6.33  5.11
31    CIN     -4.0     3   0   3   0   0.0  11.5 -14.51  -9.00 -5.51
32    NYG    -14.0     3   0   3   0   0.0  10.2  -9.29 -11.00  1.71

I wasn’t around for week 15 because of the holidays, so I will be adding a couple weeks of data today.

So week 15 is below:

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       126     56.2      27.38        17.45      9.93

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.47


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      12.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  82.6   7.28   9.43 -2.15
2     DAL      6.0    14  12   2   0  85.7  77.1   6.91   7.71 -0.80
3     OAK      3.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  59.9   4.43   2.93  1.50
4     KC       4.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  62.9   4.15   3.21  0.93
5     NYG      3.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  57.3   1.68   1.57  0.11
6     SEA      4.0    14   9   4   1  67.9  69.5   3.09   4.50 -1.41
7     PIT      7.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  67.6   4.97   4.64  0.33
8     ATL      7.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  71.9   8.08   7.93  0.15
9     MIA      3.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  50.3  -2.16   0.07 -2.23
10    DET      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  54.7  -0.09   1.14 -1.24
11    GB       3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.9   2.14   1.71  0.43
12    TB       2.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  47.5   0.40  -0.64  1.04
13    HOU      2.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  36.3  -2.47  -3.14  0.68
14    TEN      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  54.4   0.58   1.21 -0.64
15    BAL      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  62.9   2.24   3.07 -0.83
16    DEN      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  62.5   4.45   2.93  1.52
17    WAS      1.0    14   7   6   1  53.6  50.5   1.32   0.14  1.18
18    IND      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  55.7   1.14   1.64 -0.50
19    BUF      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  61.2   1.55   3.14 -1.60
20    MIN      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.7   0.42   0.36  0.06
21    NO      -1.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  53.0   1.37   1.00  0.37
22    CAR     -2.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  46.2  -0.44  -1.07  0.64
23    ARI     -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  53.9  -0.48   1.07 -1.55
24    CIN     -2.5    14   5   8   1  39.3  48.5  -0.21  -0.36  0.15
25    SD      -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  50.0   1.59   0.00  1.59
26    PHI     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  54.8   2.25   1.21  1.03
27    NYJ     -4.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  20.4  -9.28  -8.29 -0.99
28    LA      -5.5    14   4  10   0  28.6  14.5  -9.21  -9.36  0.14
29    CHI     -6.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  29.2  -5.37  -5.14 -0.23
30    JAX     -6.0    14   2  12   0  14.3  24.6  -6.19  -7.07  0.88
31    SF     -15.0    14   1  13   0   7.1  15.1 -12.05 -12.14  0.09
32    CLE    -14.0    14   0  14   0   0.0  10.5 -12.06 -13.43  1.37

and week 16 is here:

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       137     57.1      27.67        17.61     10.06

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.30


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      13.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  85.7   8.65  11.33 -2.69
2     DAL      6.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  77.8   8.01   8.60 -0.59
3     OAK      3.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  60.3   4.52   3.27  1.26
4     KC       5.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  67.0   5.26   4.53  0.72
5     ATL      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  72.5   8.47   8.53 -0.06
6     PIT      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  66.3   5.46   4.60  0.86
7     MIA      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  51.0  -1.82   0.27 -2.09
8     NYG      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  54.9   1.67   1.13  0.54
9     SEA      2.0    15   9   5   1  63.3  66.0   2.76   4.00 -1.24
10    GB       4.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  57.9   2.69   2.47  0.23
11    DET      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  48.7  -1.14  -0.33 -0.80
12    HOU      2.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  38.0  -2.40  -2.80  0.40
13    WAS      2.0    15   8   6   1  56.7  54.8   2.42   1.47  0.95
14    TB       2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  46.2  -0.07  -1.07  1.00
15    TEN      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.1  -1.35  -0.27 -1.08
16    BAL      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  60.1   2.71   2.60  0.11
17    DEN      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.9   2.85   1.20  1.65
18    NO      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  54.1   1.48   1.40  0.08
19    MIN     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  47.8  -0.38  -0.53  0.16
20    BUF     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  59.1   1.51   2.73 -1.22
21    IND     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  53.3   0.38   1.00 -0.62
22    ARI     -2.0    15   6   8   1  43.3  54.1  -0.04   1.20 -1.24
23    PHI     -1.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  55.5   2.77   1.47  1.30
24    CAR     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  42.9  -1.05  -2.13  1.08
25    CIN     -2.0    15   5   9   1  36.7  48.1  -0.11  -0.47  0.36
26    SD      -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  49.4   0.33  -0.20  0.53
27    LA      -4.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  17.3  -9.51  -8.80 -0.71
28    NYJ     -5.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  16.7 -10.30 -10.27 -0.04
29    JAX     -5.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  31.7  -4.87  -5.20  0.33
30    CHI     -6.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  27.5  -6.30  -6.13 -0.17
31    SF     -13.0    15   2  13   0  13.3  17.8 -11.78 -11.27 -0.52
32    CLE    -14.0    15   1  14   0   6.7  13.2 -10.83 -12.33  1.50

Playoff slots by now are almost all determined. AFC playoff contenders are set. NFC playoff contenders are set but for one wild card slot and one division champion (NFC North). Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in a thrilling game. Kansas City played the heaviest QB in my memory. Two good QBs broke legs and the loss of Carr could have a serious impact on Oakland’s playoff success.

At this point races are getting tighter, and games become tougher. QB play suffered as elements of winter weather affect play. Atlanta’s SRS took a big leap as the 42-14 game with LA factored in.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       119     57.2      27.38        17.54      9.83

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.39


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      11.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  80.4   6.47   9.15 -2.69
2     DAL      6.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  77.0   7.49   7.85 -0.35
3     KC       5.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  63.9   4.22   3.62  0.60
4     OAK      3.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.4   4.12   2.92  1.20
5     DET      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  58.1   0.94   2.08 -1.13
6     NYG      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  53.7   1.48   0.85  0.63
7     SEA      2.0    13   8   4   1  65.4  63.7   2.26   3.23 -0.97
8     PIT      8.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  67.4   5.02   4.69  0.32
9     ATL      7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  67.5   7.36   6.38  0.98
10    TB       3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  49.1   0.13  -0.23  0.36
11    MIA      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  44.2  -3.27  -1.54 -1.73
12    DEN      2.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  66.4   4.75   4.15  0.59
13    WAS      2.0    13   7   5   1  57.7  53.4   2.85   1.00  1.85
14    GB       4.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  55.5   2.61   1.62  0.99
15    MIN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  61.4   2.80   2.54  0.27
16    HOU      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  35.3  -2.42  -3.46  1.04
17    BAL      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  63.5   2.24   3.23 -0.99
18    TEN      1.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  54.0   0.04   1.15 -1.11
19    IND     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  48.7  -0.88  -0.38 -0.49
20    BUF     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  56.5   0.91   1.85 -0.94
21    CIN     -1.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  49.7  -0.13  -0.08 -0.06
22    ARI     -2.0    13   5   7   1  42.3  56.4  -0.04   1.69 -1.73
23    NO      -2.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  51.7   0.78   0.54  0.24
24    SD      -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  50.7   1.14   0.23  0.91
25    CAR     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  43.2  -1.40  -2.00  0.60
26    PHI     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  55.4   2.81   1.38  1.43
27    NYJ     -4.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  23.6  -8.47  -7.31 -1.17
28    LA      -4.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  17.9  -8.81  -8.46 -0.35
29    CHI     -6.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  28.5  -5.47  -5.31 -0.16
30    JAX     -7.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  23.9  -6.38  -7.54  1.15
31    SF     -13.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  18.0 -11.65 -10.92 -0.73
32    CLE    -14.0    13   0  13   0   0.0  11.8 -11.49 -12.92  1.43

We’re getting to a time and place where playoff positions will begin to be decided. Both Seattle and Dallas can make their own destinies. In the AFC, New England and Oakland have identical records and so unraveling the order there will be trickier. Those that guess that Dallas has about a 90% chance of getting the #1 seed seem accurate by my rough calculations. Using the SRS values available about 8 pm last Sunday, Dallas appeared to have a 90.6% chance of getting first seed, while Pythagorean expectations yielded a 92% chance. If Dallas beats New York, those odds will exceed 98%.

Just to be sure the (relatively high) Pythagorean exponent was real, I did tests where I changed the upper and lower bounds of the search to 2.0 and 3.0 respectively. When I did, the solution was 3.0 to 3 significant digits. There is no hidden minimum in between 2.0 and 3.0 that the normal algorithm does not catch.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       110     57.3      27.62        17.72      9.90

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.38


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL      6.5    12  11   1   0  91.7  78.2   7.75   8.75 -1.00
2     NE      12.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  81.2   6.73   9.33 -2.61
3     OAK      4.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  61.9   4.73   3.83  0.89
4     KC       4.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  62.4   3.60   3.25  0.35
5     SEA      4.0    12   8   3   1  70.8  73.9   4.84   5.83 -0.99
6     DEN      5.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  67.9   5.42   4.75  0.67
7     DET      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  57.6   0.82   2.00 -1.18
8     NYG      2.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  52.8   0.51   0.67 -0.16
9     PIT      9.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  66.7   4.66   4.50  0.16
10    ATL      4.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  62.7   6.57   4.58  1.99
11    BAL      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  67.2   2.42   4.08 -1.66
12    MIA      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  42.8  -3.31  -1.92 -1.39
13    TB       2.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  47.6   0.01  -0.67  0.68
14    WAS      1.0    12   6   5   1  54.2  52.3   2.16   0.67  1.50
15    GB       1.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  48.0  -0.14  -0.58  0.44
16    IND      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  50.0  -0.79   0.00 -0.79
17    BUF      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.0   1.70   2.58 -0.88
18    MIN      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  59.1   2.27   2.00  0.27
19    HOU     -2.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  32.5  -3.23  -4.17  0.94
20    TEN     -3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.4  -0.87   1.00 -1.87
21    ARI     -1.0    12   5   6   1  45.8  57.9   0.80   2.08 -1.28
22    NO      -1.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.0   1.52   1.00  0.52
23    SD      -2.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.9   2.29   1.25  1.04
24    PHI     -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  57.5   2.87   1.92  0.96
25    CIN     -2.5    12   4   7   1  37.5  45.3  -0.24  -1.17  0.93
26    CAR     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  39.5  -2.09  -3.17  1.07
27    LA      -3.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  22.0  -7.47  -6.83 -0.64
28    NYJ     -4.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  20.6  -8.30  -8.42  0.12
29    CHI     -6.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  28.0  -6.19  -5.50 -0.69
30    JAX     -6.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  24.4  -6.60  -7.42  0.81
31    SF     -15.0    12   1  11   0   8.3  17.5 -10.91 -11.33  0.42
32    CLE    -14.0    12   0  12   0   0.0  12.3 -11.52 -12.92  1.40