January 2023
Monthly Archive
January 23, 2023
I thought the second round playoff games were pretty entertaining, with the possible exception of the Philadelphia – New York game, and even in that one, nice to see Jalen Hurts back to early season form. Most of the indicators for the Conference round suggest close games, with the exception of the Formula’s prediction of PHI-SF, which punishes SF for their weak schedule. Otherwise, everything else is close.
| Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds |
| Home Team |
Visiting Team |
Score Diff |
Win Prob |
Est. Point Spread |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
SF 49ers |
0.948/td>
| 0.721 |
7.0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
Cincinnati Bengals |
0.049 |
0.51 |
0.4 |
For the SRS based games, I used the whole season with the exception of Philadelphia. I used the weeks 1-14 in that case, as the last four games were not representative of a Jalen Hurts led team. All of these predictions are less than 3 points, and so are effectively pick ’em games.
| Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds SRS based |
| Home Team |
Visiting Team |
Score Diff |
Win Prob |
Est. Point Spread |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
SF 49ers |
0.176 |
0.54 |
1.3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
Cincinnati Bengals |
-0.01 |
0.50 |
-0.5 |
January 17, 2023
The methodology of these calculations are given here.
I can say the playoff games I watched were interesting. Coming back after throwing 4 ints pretty much shows that Trevor Lawrence is hardly mediocre. It takes skill to do what he did. Congrats to the Giants, whose win, along with Dallas, says that three of the best 4 teams in the NFC were in the NFC East.
Unlike the previous data sets, the second round data are a lot more consistent. I don’t think there are very many surprises here. Home teams are favored throughout, though both my playoff models suggest 49ers-Cowboys will be close.
| 2022 Second Round Playoff Odds |
| Home Team |
Visiting Team |
Score Diff |
Win Prob |
Est. Point Spread |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
New York Giants |
1.005 |
0.732 |
7.4 |
| SF 49ers |
Dallas Cowboys |
0.217 |
0.554 |
1.6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
0.768 |
0.683 |
5.6 |
| Buffalo Bills |
Cincannati Bengals |
0.548 |
0.634 |
4.3 |
The data above are based on the playoff formula, the data below are SRS based.
| 2022 Second Round Playoff Odds SRS based. |
| Home Team |
Visiting Team |
Score Diff |
Win Prob |
Est. Point Spread |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
New York Giants/td>
| 0.904 |
0.712 |
6.7 |
| SF 49ers |
Dallas Cowboys |
0.185 |
0.546 |
1.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
0.603 |
0.646 |
4.5 |
| Buffalo Bills |
Cincinnati Bengals |
0.581 |
0.641 |
4.3 |
January 12, 2023
The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here.
The teams most favored in the first rounds are Tampa Bay in the NFC and Cinncinnati in the AFC. As the formulas are simple and HFA a huge part of the formulas, their advantage will go away in the second round. San Francisco is peculiarly disliked by the formula as it played a very weak schedule. We’ll see if we can’t present some odds using Simple Ranking so there is a comparison
(PX within 2 years) Logit P = 0.660 + 0.304(SOS) + 0.747(PPX)
| 2022 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet. |
| NFC |
| Rank |
Name |
Home Field Adv |
Playoff Experience |
SOS |
Total Score |
| 1 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
0.660 |
0.747 |
-0.353 |
1.054 |
| 2 |
SF 49ers |
0.660 |
0.747 |
-0.641 |
0.766 |
| 3 |
Minnesota Vikings |
0.660 |
0.0 |
0.085 |
0.745 |
| 4 |
Tampa Bay Bucs |
0.660 |
0.747 |
0.164 |
1.571 |
| 5 |
Dallas Cowboys |
0.0 |
0.747 |
-0.198 |
0.549 |
| 6 |
NY Giants |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.049 |
0.049 |
| 7 |
Seattle Seahawks |
0.0 |
0.747 |
0.167 |
0.914 |
| AFC |
| 1 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
0.660 |
0.747 |
-0.444 |
0.963 |
| 2 |
Buffalo Bills |
0.660 |
0.747 |
0.085 |
1.492 |
| 3 |
Cinncinnati Bengals |
0.660 |
0.747 |
0.167 |
1.574 |
| 4 |
Jacksonville Jags |
0.660 |
0.000 |
0.195 |
0.855 |
| 5 |
LA Chargers |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.474 |
-0.474 |
| 6 |
Baltimore Ravens |
0.0 |
0.747 |
0.255 |
1.002 |
| 7 |
Miami Dolphins |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.526 |
0.526 |
Using the data above, we can calculate playoff odds for the first round. Note that at least three games are not the same as you might get with some kind of offensive stats.
| First Round Playoff Odds |
| Home Team |
Visiting Team |
Score Diff |
Win Prob |
Est. Point Spread |
| SF 49ers |
Seattle Seahawks |
-0.148 |
0.463 |
-1.1 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
New York Giants |
0.696 |
0.667 |
5.2 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs |
Dallas Cowboys |
1.022 |
0.736 |
7.6 |
| Buffalo Bills |
Miami Dolphins |
0.966 |
0.724 |
7.1 |
| Cinncinnati Bengals |
Baltimore Ravens |
0.572 |
0.639 |
4.2 |
| Jacksonville Jags |
LA Chargers |
1.329 |
0.791 |
9.8 |
For comparison, we also calculated odds using a Simple Ranking. Pythagoreans might be a little more accurate, but the accuracy of any offensive stat isn’t high enough to be 90% statistically reliable. If it were, the guys who do these kinds of things would be telling you that.
| First Round Playoff Odds SRS based |
| Home Team |
Visiting Team |
Score Diff |
Win Prob |
Est. Point Spread |
| SF 49ers |
Seattle Seahawks |
1.130 |
0.756 |
8.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
New York Giants |
0.039 |
0.510 |
0.3 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs |
Dallas Cowboys |
-1.189 |
0.233 |
-8.8 |
| Buffalo Bills |
Miami Dolphins |
1.249 |
0.777 |
9.2 |
| Cinncinnati Bengals |
Baltimore Ravens |
0.493 |
0.621 |
3.6 |
| Jacksonville Jags |
LA Chargers |
0.365 |
0.590 |
2.7 |
So there you have it. Odds per my formulas of 2016, odds via SRS, and I’m sure more curious sorts can find NFL playoff odds as established by sports books.
January 9, 2023
I’m not smart enough to figure out all the possibilities that emerge from the missing game. Kansas City and Philadelphia are number 1 seeds. The playoff games should be good. In a couple days I’ll have a playoff matrix using one of my playoff formulas.
Global Statistics:
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
271 151 55.7 26.59 16.88 9.70
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.38
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 PHI 7.0 17 14 3 0 82.4 75.1 6.67 7.82 -1.16
2 KC 6.0 17 14 3 0 82.4 73.1 6.01 7.47 -1.46
3 BUF 8.0 16 13 3 0 81.2 82.8 10.85 10.56 0.28
4 SF 15.0 17 13 4 0 76.5 83.8 8.07 10.18 -2.11
5 MIN 3.0 17 13 4 0 76.5 49.4 0.10 -0.18 0.28
6 CIN 5.5 16 12 4 0 75.0 70.7 6.55 6.00 0.55
7 DAL 7.0 17 12 5 0 70.6 74.1 6.70 7.35 -0.65
8 LAC 2.0 17 10 7 0 58.8 51.5 -1.15 0.41 -1.56
9 BAL 2.0 17 10 7 0 58.8 58.8 2.90 2.06 0.84
10 NYG 1.0 17 9 7 1 55.9 48.6 -0.19 -0.35 0.16
11 MIA 2.0 17 9 8 0 52.9 49.6 1.61 -0.12 1.73
12 PIT 2.0 17 9 8 0 52.9 40.3 -1.00 -2.24 1.24
13 DET 1.0 17 9 8 0 52.9 55.0 2.42 1.53 0.89
14 SEA 1.0 17 9 8 0 52.9 51.3 -0.29 0.35 -0.65
15 JAX 1.0 17 9 8 0 52.9 61.9 1.55 3.18 -1.62
16 WAS 0.0 17 8 8 1 50.0 44.4 -0.76 -1.29 0.53
17 GB -2.0 17 8 9 0 47.1 49.8 0.53 -0.06 0.58
18 TB -2.0 17 8 9 0 47.1 38.8 -2.10 -2.65 0.54
19 NE -3.0 17 8 9 0 47.1 54.0 1.79 1.00 0.79
20 CLE -2.0 17 7 10 0 41.2 45.5 -0.35 -1.18 0.82
21 ATL -3.0 17 7 10 0 41.2 45.3 -1.97 -1.24 -0.73
22 CAR -3.0 17 7 10 0 41.2 43.7 -2.01 -1.59 -0.42
23 NO -3.0 17 7 10 0 41.2 46.3 -1.01 -0.88 -0.12
24 TEN -3.0 17 7 10 0 41.2 34.8 -3.87 -3.59 -0.28
25 NYJ -5.0 17 7 10 0 41.2 44.5 0.56 -1.18 1.73
26 LV -2.0 17 6 11 0 35.3 45.2 -2.70 -1.35 -1.34
27 DEN -3.0 17 5 12 0 29.4 31.9 -5.19 -4.24 -0.95
28 LA -7.0 17 5 12 0 29.4 31.9 -3.86 -4.53 0.67
29 IND -3.0 17 4 12 1 26.5 21.1 -8.82 -8.12 -0.70
30 ARI -8.0 17 4 13 0 23.5 28.1 -6.04 -6.41 0.37
31 HOU -7.0 17 3 13 1 20.6 22.0 -8.76 -7.71 -1.05
32 CHI -7.0 17 3 14 0 17.6 23.4 -6.26 -8.06 1.80
January 9, 2023
These data were delayed by the Damar Hamlin situation, and waiting to see what would happen to the BUF-CIN game. For now it was just cancelled.
Global Statistics:
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
255 140 54.9 26.65 16.96 9.69
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.19
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 PHI 7.5 16 13 3 0 81.2 74.0 6.72 7.94 -1.22
2 KC 4.5 16 13 3 0 81.2 70.1 5.48 6.81 -1.33
3 BUF 8.0 15 12 3 0 80.0 81.7 10.65 10.47 0.18
4 SF 14.0 16 12 4 0 75.0 80.5 7.35 9.25 -1.90
5 DAL 7.5 16 12 4 0 75.0 76.9 8.35 9.06 -0.71
6 MIN 3.0 16 12 4 0 75.0 46.3 -0.41 -1.19 0.78
7 CIN 4.0 15 11 4 0 73.3 68.6 6.16 5.67 0.50
8 LAC 2.5 16 10 6 0 62.5 52.2 -0.75 0.62 -1.37
9 BAL 2.0 16 10 6 0 62.5 61.6 3.31 2.88 0.44
10 NYG 2.0 16 9 6 1 59.4 50.0 -0.23 0.00 -0.23
11 MIA 0.0 16 8 8 0 50.0 48.6 1.37 -0.44 1.80
12 GB 0.0 16 8 8 0 50.0 50.7 0.69 0.19 0.51
13 PIT 0.0 16 8 8 0 50.0 36.7 -1.82 -3.25 1.43
14 NE -0.5 16 8 8 0 50.0 57.0 2.03 1.81 0.21
15 TB -0.5 16 8 8 0 50.0 41.9 -1.27 -2.00 0.73
16 DET -1.0 16 8 8 0 50.0 54.1 2.29 1.38 0.92
17 SEA -1.5 16 8 8 0 50.0 50.6 -0.26 0.19 -0.45
18 JAX -1.5 16 8 8 0 50.0 60.9 1.67 3.12 -1.46
19 WAS -1.5 16 7 8 1 46.9 39.5 -2.42 -2.62 0.20
20 CLE -1.5 16 7 9 0 43.8 48.6 0.43 -0.38 0.81
21 NO -2.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 47.1 -0.77 -0.75 -0.02
22 TEN -2.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 35.7 -3.97 -3.56 -0.41
23 NYJ -4.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 46.0 0.78 -0.94 1.71
24 LV -1.5 16 6 10 0 37.5 49.0 -2.17 -0.31 -1.86
25 CAR -3.0 16 6 10 0 37.5 43.2 -2.28 -1.88 -0.40
26 ATL -3.0 16 6 10 0 37.5 42.4 -2.77 -2.12 -0.65
27 LA -8.5 16 5 11 0 31.2 32.7 -3.80 -4.62 0.82
28 IND -5.0 16 4 11 1 28.1 20.5 -8.82 -8.56 -0.26
29 DEN -3.0 16 4 12 0 25.0 30.6 -5.58 -4.69 -0.90
30 ARI -5.5 16 4 12 0 25.0 32.5 -5.41 -5.25 -0.16
31 CHI -6.0 16 3 13 0 18.8 26.1 -5.77 -7.56 1.79
32 HOU -7.5 16 2 13 1 15.6 21.0 -8.75 -8.25 -0.50
Code and Football 