The Sony Michel trade analyzed by AV

As I understand it, The Patriots have traded Sony Michel to the Rams for a fifth round choice and a sixth round choice. So is it a good trade? A bad trade? What does AV have to say? Well, Sony’s draft position is worth 21 AV, by the old 2012 Pro Football Reference charts. He gave them 16 AV of play over the past three years. To break even, all the Pats have to do is recover 5 AV. My tools and guessing the 5th as a 150 and the 6th as a 180 nets the Pats 13 AV. So the trade is a net positive of 8 AV. Given errors on a per-position basis, this could be break even or a small win for the Pats.

 

More comments on the Seattle 4-3 hybrid

One of the things I noticed when rereading Chris Brown’s article on Grantland, “Ode to the War Daddies” are how much the same those hybrid fronts are and the Seattle fronts are. In short, they are the same, so Bill Belichick was playing those “Seattle” fronts back in 2012.

There are a couple writers for the Dallas Morning News Dallas fans need to take note of. Michael Gehiken, Twitter handle @GehlkenNFL, is a good Dallas news guy. The other, John Owning, Twitter handle @JohnOwning is a good draft analysis guy and has some of the best articles on Dan Quinn targeted at “intelligent fans”. This link is a discussion of DQ’s pass defense philosophy, and this older draft video has it online.

If you have not seen any video of the new Atlanta Falcons DC, Dean Pees, try to give yourself 20 minutes and listen to him. I enjoyed him a lot.

 

2019 NFL Playoff Season. Playoff Worksheet. First round playoff odds.

The methodology of this work is described here.

This year, the formulas favor the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks. Baltimore has the advantage in any possible encounter in the AFC. Seattle has the advantage over any team not named the New Orleans Saints. As the Saints lose their HFA against Green Bay, they are not favored against Green Bay. The odds of a Seattle-New Orleans matchup are small.

2019 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	San Francisco 49ers	0.660	0	0.125	0.785
2	Green Bay Packers	0.660	0.747	-0.225	1.182
3	New Orleans Saints	0.660	0.747	0.015	1.422
4	Philadelphia Eagles	0.660	0.747	-0.511	0.896
5	Seattle Seahawks	0.0	0.747	0.690	1.376
6	Minnesota Vikings	0.0	0.747	-0.334	0.413
AFC
1	Baltimore Ravens	0.660	0.747	0.015	1.422
2	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	0.061	1.468
3	New England Patriots	0.660	0.747	-0.535	0.872
4	Houston Texans	0.660	0.747	0.292	1.699
5	Buffalo Bills	0.0	0.747	-0.380	0.367
6	Tennessee Titans	0.0	0.747	-0.310	0.437

 

The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

Because the worksheet above can be hard to decipher, for the first week of the 2019 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Minnesota Vikings	1.009	0.733	7.5
Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	-0.541	0.368	-4.0
New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans	0.435	0.607	3.2
Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills	1.332	0.791	9.9

 

Some good books and the Super Bowl aftermath.

First things first. You cannot hurt yourselves much by buying Doug Farrar’s new book “The Genius of Desperation”. I have only one complaint about it. It does mangle the history of the one gap 4-3 when it discusses the Miami 4-3 that Jimmy Johnson helped introduce into the pros. From the beginning there were one gap 4-3s. Just, the 4-3s of Tom Landry were about gap control, not hard core pursuit. Otherwise it’s a very good book. Oh yes, the first edition has some issues in the diagrams, but if he gets a second edition, perhaps those will be fixed.

Dr Z’s classic now has a Kindle edition. If you have Kindle Unlimited, you can get the book for free (for now).

Also, for a limited time, Coach Paul Alexander has a video of the back and forth of Super Bowl LIII, of the 5 UP defense the Patriots used, the tricks the Rams used, and how both teams adapted to defeat the respective defenses. Just, its now unlisted
(can’t be searched for) and it may disappear in time. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

 

2018 NFL Playoffs, Super Bowl Predictions.

Well, the system went 0-2, and probably would have gone 1-1 had the refs been able to call pass interference in the last two minutes of the Saints-Rams game. The story as I gather it, is the lack of experience in the current crop of referees and the lack of good positioning during the infraction. Count me among the folks who think “the booth” should be able to overrule this kind of blatant miss on the field.

The other factors that don’t seem to change is that New England outplays its strength of schedule and that Kansas City underperforms its playoff predictions. All that said, the formula predicts a close game with the Rams emerging with a victory.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Los Angeles Rams	New England Patriots	0.380	0.59	2.8

 

2018 NFL Playoffs, Conference Round (third round).

Not much to say, other than my system went 4-0 predicting winners. It did predict a bigger margin of victory in the Kansas City game, and closer games than most would have expected in the Saints game and Rams game. I don’t think in all honesty, that my odds were that much different from Vegas odds.

Once again, my data favor the home team, and by more than HFA. In both cases the home teams faced tougher competition throughout the year than the challenger.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	LA Rams	0.986	0.73	7.3
Kansas City Chiefs	NE Patriots	1.162	0.76	8.6

 
In this instance the old and new formulas are close in terms of their predictions. That is because the strength of schedule adjustments between the teams are a little larger in the old formula.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds Old Formula
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	LA Rams	0.89	0.71	6.6
Kansas City Chiefs	NE Patriots	1.092	0.75	8.1

 

2018 NFL Playoffs. Second (Divisional) Round Odds.

In terms of picking winners, the system went 2-2, unable really to deal with tough underdogs such as the Chargers and Colts. It picked Philadelphia, which by traditional means was the most in favor of the home team, though that game was one foot from being a Chicago win. So it went 2-0 in the NFC and 0-2 in the AFC.

In this round the home teams are favored in all four contests, but by varying amounts compared to the spread.

The methodology of how we pick is given here. The 2018 worksheet is given here. And as an aside, Doug Farrar’s new football book is very very good and I recommend that hard core fans buy it.

In the worksheet below, the factor 0.66 is the logit of home field advantage as calculated by the logistic regression. That’s equivalent to a HFA of 4.9 points. The playoff HFA of 62.7% is equivalent to 3.8 points. So, if you prefer 3.8 or even 3, just subtract 1.1 points or 1.9 points from the points margin respectively. Just for yucks we calculated the Rams and Cowboys odds both with the 0.66 factor of the fitted formula and the 0.518 factor of actual results, the latter in parentheses.

Whether I stick with this new formula is up in the air. I have an older formula that is much the same but not inclined to generate 15 point advantages, a bit tamer, if you will. We’ll see. I don’t do this for a living, just for fun, and the methodology link above gives the old formula.

That said, the second round worksheets.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	0.685	0.66	5.1
LA Rams	Dallas Cowboys	0.48 (0.34)	0.62 (0.58)	3.6 (2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs	Indianapolis Colts	2.067	0.89	15
New England Patriots	LA Chargers	0.942	0.72	7.0

 
Update: decided to add the old formula predictions, and also use the measured HFA factor.

 

Second Round Playoff Odds Old Formula
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	0.546	0.63	4.0
LA Rams	Dallas Cowboys	0.313	0.58	2.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Indianapolis Colts	1.707	0.85	12.6
New England Patriots	LA Chargers	0.42	0.60	3.1

 

2017 NFL Season. Superbowl Odds

I’ll continue posting my odds, though this has not been the best season for them. Jacksonville continued to be best modeled by their median point spread, as opposed to their playoff formula. Philadelphia outperformed any reasonable prediction of their play once Wentz went down.

My system gives an edge to New England. Philadelphia played a tougher schedule but lacks playoff experience by my system. There is no home field in the Superbowl.

Super Bowl Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New England Patriots	Philadelphia Eagles	0.586	0.642	4.3

 

2017 Playoff Odds. Conference Championship Round.

Outside of the New England game, all the games were good and exciting, from the final goal line stand by the Eagles, to the win with ten seconds left by the Vikings. The Jacksonville Jaguars are just not well managed by this system. It was easy to see that through the year that they were a boom or bust team. They could win big or lose big, and in the game with the Steelers, they were enough in “win big” mode that the Steelers could not keep up.

Philadelphia won because of their stout defense, a Nick Foles that gave them a AYA of 8.2 for the game, much akin to Carson Wentz’s average.

To remind people, the 2017 worksheet is here, and the methodology is here. The odds for the next round are below.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	Minnesota Vikings	-0.604	0.353	-4.5
New England Patriots	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.872	0.867	13.9

 

2017 Playoff Odds. Second Round.

The first round is over and in terms of predicting winners, not my best (by my count, 1-2-1, as we had Jax and Bills in a de facto tie). I was pleased that the model got Rams and Atlanta correct, and the Sunday games all came down to the wire. One or two plays and my formal results would have been impressive. Still, back to the predictions for this week.

To add some spice, we will predict results for New Orleans normally, and also as if Drew Brees is elite. Values in parentheses are the elite numbers. With elite status or no, Minnesota is still favored in this data set.

The only home team not favored is Philadelphia. We discussed this in part in this article.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	Atlanta Falcons	-0.878	0.294	-6.5
Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	1.231 (0.484)	0.774 (0.619)	9.1 (3.6)
New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans	1.674	0.842	12.4
Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	1.915	0.872	14