November 2021
Monthly Archive
November 30, 2021
Again, the big news, in terms of SRS, is the rise of New England into the top 5, and now they are #2. Buffalo has regained the #1 spot with an impressive win and the top 5 in order are, Buffalo, NE, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Dallas. The best 6 win team is Indianapolis. New Orleans and Philadelphia are tied as the best 5 win teams.
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
180 89 49.4 28.96 16.87 12.09
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 2.11
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ARI 12.0 11 9 2 0 81.8 71.2 9.41 9.82 -0.40
2 GB 5.5 12 9 3 0 75.0 58.2 3.64 3.42 0.23
3 TB 6.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 66.1 8.77 8.55 0.23
4 BAL 3.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 54.8 1.02 2.09 -1.07
5 NE 10.5 12 8 4 0 66.7 76.9 9.86 12.17 -2.31
6 TEN 3.0 12 8 4 0 66.7 52.5 2.68 1.17 1.51
7 BUF 18.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 77.4 10.22 13.09 -2.87
8 LA 9.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 56.7 3.32 3.27 0.05
9 DAL 4.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 63.7 7.71 6.91 0.80
10 KC 4.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 56.1 4.24 2.82 1.42
11 CIN 3.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 65.9 3.56 7.55 -3.99
12 DEN 7.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 57.9 0.65 2.91 -2.26
13 SF 6.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 56.4 3.59 2.91 0.68
14 LAC 3.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 46.3 -0.40 -1.82 1.42
15 LV 3.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 43.2 -3.23 -3.27 0.04
16 IND 1.5 12 6 6 0 50.0 59.6 4.58 4.75 -0.17
17 PIT 0.0 11 5 5 1 50.0 40.8 -4.03 -3.91 -0.12
18 CLE -0.5 12 6 6 0 50.0 47.4 -1.27 -1.08 -0.18
19 MIN -1.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 50.9 1.77 0.45 1.32
20 NO -2.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 51.7 2.42 0.73 1.69
21 WAS -4.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 39.2 -3.54 -4.82 1.28
22 ATL -4.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 29.3 -9.52 -9.36 -0.16
23 MIA -2.5 12 5 7 0 41.7 40.8 -3.79 -3.75 -0.04
24 PHI -4.5 12 5 7 0 41.7 55.7 2.42 2.58 -0.17
25 CAR -4.5 12 5 7 0 41.7 46.3 -2.10 -1.42 -0.68
26 NYG -3.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 38.3 -3.62 -4.64 1.01
27 CHI -3.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 32.3 -7.33 -6.82 -0.51
28 SEA -3.0 11 3 8 0 27.3 45.9 -0.20 -1.55 1.35
29 NYJ -7.0 11 3 8 0 27.3 25.1 -10.86 -12.27 1.41
30 JAX -10.0 11 2 9 0 18.2 26.1 -9.02 -10.00 0.98
31 HOU -10.0 11 2 9 0 18.2 22.8 -10.45 -11.64 1.18
32 DET -8.0 11 0 10 1 4.5 25.5 -10.51 -10.45 -0.06
November 23, 2021
On a day where Dak couldn’t hit the side of a barn, and the Cowboys best two receivers were sidelined, Dallas lost. The fanbase is not totally frantic, but the edges are in a bit of a panic mode. This, from a team where after the loss, they are the #2 team in all of the NFL in simple ranking. This is because other teams lost too, and they lost harder.
The real news to me is the meteoric rise of the Patriots into the top 5. I don’t see this status going away. Next, best by wins. The best 7 win team is Dallas, followed by New England and then Tampa Bay. The best 6 win team is Buffalo, followed by Indianapolis. In the 5 win frame, it is New Orleans, followed by Philadelphia. Comparing Pythagorean expectations to win rate, the most overrated team at the moment is Baltimore.
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
165 80 48.5 29.07 16.93 12.14
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 2.21
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ARI 12.0 11 9 2 0 81.8 72.1 10.20 9.82 0.38
2 TEN 3.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 57.5 4.38 3.36 1.02
3 GB 3.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 57.9 3.29 3.00 0.29
4 LA 9.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 59.7 4.41 4.40 0.01
5 DAL 5.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 66.7 9.24 7.90 1.34
6 TB 4.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 67.5 8.38 8.70 -0.32
7 BAL 2.5 10 7 3 0 70.0 53.9 0.02 1.70 -1.68
8 KC 4.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 56.4 4.21 2.82 1.39
9 NE 3.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 76.3 8.52 11.18 -2.66
10 BUF 16.5 10 6 4 0 60.0 75.8 8.13 11.90 -3.77
11 LAC 3.5 10 6 4 0 60.0 48.9 1.13 -0.50 1.63
12 CIN 3.0 10 6 4 0 60.0 61.7 1.09 5.20 -4.11
13 PIT 1.0 10 5 4 1 55.0 47.0 -2.19 -1.20 -0.99
14 IND 6.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 62.6 4.75 5.82 -1.07
15 CLE 3.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 48.4 -0.88 -0.64 -0.24
16 SF 2.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 55.7 3.51 2.40 1.11
17 DEN 2.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 54.9 -0.80 1.70 -2.50
18 MIN 0.5 10 5 5 0 50.0 52.9 2.81 1.30 1.51
19 NO 0.5 10 5 5 0 50.0 57.7 4.38 3.30 1.08
20 LV -2.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 41.2 -5.08 -3.90 -1.18
21 PHI -3.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 57.3 3.77 3.36 0.41
22 CAR -3.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 51.5 0.34 0.55 -0.21
23 ATL -5.0 10 4 6 0 40.0 25.6 -10.35 -11.00 0.65
24 WAS -5.5 10 4 6 0 40.0 37.5 -4.09 -5.50 1.41
25 MIA -3.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 34.4 -6.94 -6.18 -0.76
26 SEA -3.0 10 3 7 0 30.0 45.9 1.18 -1.50 2.68
27 NYG -3.0 10 3 7 0 30.0 35.8 -4.64 -5.70 1.06
28 CHI -6.5 10 3 7 0 30.0 29.8 -7.49 -7.70 0.21
29 NYJ -11.0 10 2 8 0 20.0 21.5 -12.43 -14.20 1.77
30 JAX -11.0 10 2 8 0 20.0 24.9 -8.72 -10.30 1.58
31 HOU -12.5 10 2 8 0 20.0 21.3 -9.68 -12.10 2.42
32 DET -8.5 10 0 9 1 5.0 23.5 -10.47 -11.30 0.83
November 16, 2021
Whereas Week 9 was the week of the upset, Week 10 was the week of teams crushing other teams. Even the Monday Night Football game was a crush, though it was Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers doing the crushing. Ranked by SRS, Buffalo is first, followed by Dallas, Arizona, New England, and Tampa Bay. New England’s new found offense is shooting it up the charts.
The best 4 loss team is New England. The best 5 loss team is Minnesota, which won this weekend. The best 6 loss team is Philadelphia, which also won this weekend. Detroit tied a game, which is an improvement. But Pythagoreans suggest Detroit should have won a couple games this year.
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
150 74 49.3 29.19 17.01 12.18
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 2.30
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ARI 13.0 10 8 2 0 80.0 72.3 9.78 9.80 -0.02
2 GB 6.5 10 8 2 0 80.0 60.3 3.05 3.60 -0.55
3 TEN 3.0 10 8 2 0 80.0 60.2 6.55 4.60 1.95
4 DAL 6.0 9 7 2 0 77.8 70.3 11.13 9.89 1.24
5 LA 9.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 60.0 3.71 4.40 -0.69
6 BUF 18.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 84.2 11.43 16.11 -4.68
7 TB 2.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 65.3 7.79 7.44 0.34
8 BAL 2.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 53.6 -0.08 1.56 -1.63
9 PIT 2.0 9 5 3 1 61.1 47.5 -2.04 -0.89 -1.16
10 KC 3.5 10 6 4 0 60.0 54.8 3.34 2.10 1.24
11 NE 3.0 10 6 4 0 60.0 73.3 8.22 9.80 -1.58
12 CIN 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 58.6 -0.55 3.67 -4.22
13 NO 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 62.4 6.17 4.89 1.28
14 LAC 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 47.7 1.06 -1.00 2.06
15 LV 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 44.8 -3.75 -2.22 -1.53
16 DEN 2.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 55.1 -0.35 1.70 -2.05
17 IND 1.5 10 5 5 0 50.0 58.7 1.89 3.80 -1.91
18 CAR 1.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 53.5 1.61 1.20 0.41
19 CLE -0.5 10 5 5 0 50.0 47.6 -0.88 -1.00 0.12
20 MIN -1.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 52.7 2.36 1.11 1.25
21 SF -2.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 51.1 1.73 0.44 1.29
22 ATL -4.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 29.0 -9.10 -9.44 0.34
23 PHI -4.5 10 4 6 0 40.0 56.1 2.75 2.60 0.15
24 SEA -3.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 48.4 1.16 -0.56 1.71
25 NYG -3.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 39.4 -3.20 -4.11 0.91
26 WAS -7.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 34.2 -4.53 -6.78 2.24
27 CHI -10.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 28.5 -8.55 -8.22 -0.32
28 MIA -3.0 10 3 7 0 30.0 30.8 -6.73 -7.50 0.77
29 JAX -10.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 26.6 -7.99 -9.22 1.23
30 NYJ -15.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 19.8 -11.90 -15.00 3.10
31 HOU -15.0 9 1 8 0 11.1 16.7 -12.11 -14.44 2.34
32 DET -9.0 9 0 8 1 5.6 22.0 -11.96 -12.22 0.27
November 12, 2021
Running late this week. Will have comments the next one.
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
136 66 48.5 29.18 17.58 11.60
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 2.54
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ARI 14.0 9 8 1 0 88.9 81.4 13.70 13.56 0.14
2 LA 9.0 9 7 2 0 77.8 67.4 7.35 7.22 0.13
3 TEN 3.0 9 7 2 0 77.8 61.8 7.31 4.89 2.42
4 GB 3.0 9 7 2 0 77.8 56.3 1.25 2.11 -0.86
5 DAL 5.0 8 6 2 0 75.0 64.0 7.57 6.12 1.44
6 TB 4.0 8 6 2 0 75.0 70.9 9.60 9.62 -0.02
7 BAL 2.5 8 6 2 0 75.0 57.9 2.67 3.25 -0.58
8 BUF 16.5 8 5 3 0 62.5 85.2 10.07 14.62 -4.56
9 NO 6.0 8 5 3 0 62.5 65.9 5.14 5.75 -0.61
10 LV 4.5 8 5 3 0 62.5 52.3 -0.85 0.88 -1.73
11 LAC 3.5 8 5 3 0 62.5 49.4 0.97 -0.25 1.22
12 PIT 2.5 8 5 3 0 62.5 46.9 0.51 -1.00 1.51
13 DEN 7.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 62.5 1.72 3.78 -2.06
14 CIN 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 59.4 0.30 3.67 -3.36
15 NE 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 68.3 3.83 6.67 -2.83
16 CLE 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 58.4 3.22 3.11 0.11
17 KC 3.0 9 5 4 0 55.6 48.3 0.89 -0.67 1.56
18 ATL -1.0 8 4 4 0 50.0 35.9 -8.26 -5.62 -2.64
19 IND -3.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 58.8 3.00 3.56 -0.56
20 CAR -3.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 45.7 -3.27 -1.33 -1.93
21 MIN -2.0 8 3 5 0 37.5 51.0 2.25 0.38 1.87
22 SEA -3.0 8 3 5 0 37.5 54.3 3.72 1.50 2.22
23 SF -4.5 8 3 5 0 37.5 44.4 -0.20 -2.12 1.93
24 NYG -3.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 38.3 -3.84 -4.11 0.27
25 PHI -6.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 52.6 0.28 1.00 -0.72
26 CHI -10.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 26.5 -7.30 -8.22 0.92
27 WAS -9.0 8 2 6 0 25.0 27.8 -7.88 -8.88 0.99
28 NYJ -11.0 8 2 6 0 25.0 19.6 -12.32 -13.38 1.06
29 JAX -11.0 8 2 6 0 25.0 23.8 -7.63 -9.62 1.99
30 MIA -3.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 24.4 -8.80 -9.67 0.86
31 HOU -15.0 9 1 8 0 11.1 14.4 -12.06 -14.44 2.39
32 DET -9.5 8 0 8 0 0.0 17.9 -12.92 -13.75 0.83
November 2, 2021
It was the week of the back up quarterback. Dallas castoff Mike White won a game for the New York Jets, and that’s left Dallas fans asking, how come he couldn’t beat out Cooper Rush when he was here. Speaking of Cooper, he won a game against Minnesota. I’ve always wondered why such a stacked ‘O’ like Minnesota’s didn’t have a higher OSRS. Offensive line play, perhaps? Best teams by wins are: NYG best at 2 wins, SEA and MIN are best at 3 wins and better than any 4 win team. NE, best at 4 wins. BUF best at 5 wins. DAL, best at 6 wins. ARI, best at 7 wins. The SRS of Green Bay, less the first game, is 6.5.
Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
122 59 48.4 29.43 17.58 11.85
Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 2.81
Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ARI 14.5 8 7 1 0 87.5 83.5 13.19 13.50 -0.31
2 LA 9.5 8 7 1 0 87.5 74.3 8.83 9.62 -0.79
3 GB 6.5 8 7 1 0 87.5 59.7 2.87 3.12 -0.25
4 DAL 6.0 7 6 1 0 85.7 71.6 10.62 9.00 1.62
5 TB 4.0 8 6 2 0 75.0 72.8 10.10 9.62 0.47
6 TEN 3.0 8 6 2 0 75.0 60.5 5.26 4.00 1.26
7 BUF 18.0 7 5 2 0 71.4 89.0 12.48 17.14 -4.66
8 NO 9.0 7 5 2 0 71.4 71.0 7.59 6.86 0.74
9 LV 6.0 7 5 2 0 71.4 55.7 0.07 2.00 -1.93
10 BAL 2.0 7 5 2 0 71.4 59.1 2.13 3.29 -1.16
11 CIN 3.0 8 5 3 0 62.5 70.3 3.04 7.25 -4.21
12 LAC 4.0 7 4 3 0 57.1 48.0 0.30 -0.71 1.01
13 PIT 3.0 7 4 3 0 57.1 44.9 1.51 -1.43 2.94
14 DEN 2.0 8 4 4 0 50.0 59.5 -1.69 2.50 -4.19
15 KC 1.0 8 4 4 0 50.0 46.1 -0.47 -1.50 1.03
16 NE 1.0 8 4 4 0 50.0 65.5 2.90 5.25 -2.35
17 CAR 1.0 8 4 4 0 50.0 52.6 -1.45 0.75 -2.20
18 CLE -0.5 8 4 4 0 50.0 51.2 -0.00 0.38 -0.38
19 MIN -1.0 7 3 4 0 42.9 52.6 3.31 0.86 2.46
20 SF -2.0 7 3 4 0 42.9 48.8 0.17 -0.43 0.60
21 ATL -4.0 7 3 4 0 42.9 31.5 -10.41 -6.71 -3.69
22 IND -3.0 8 3 5 0 37.5 56.2 2.64 2.12 0.52
23 SEA -3.0 8 3 5 0 37.5 54.8 3.78 1.50 2.28
24 PHI -6.0 8 3 5 0 37.5 54.3 1.08 1.50 -0.42
25 CHI -10.5 8 3 5 0 37.5 21.5 -7.36 -9.00 1.64
26 NYJ -7.0 7 2 5 0 28.6 15.9 -13.06 -13.14 0.08
27 NYG -3.0 8 2 6 0 25.0 33.2 -4.89 -5.50 0.61
28 WAS -9.0 8 2 6 0 25.0 25.8 -8.15 -8.88 0.72
29 JAX -12.0 7 1 6 0 14.3 19.7 -11.10 -11.43 0.33
30 MIA -6.5 8 1 7 0 12.5 18.7 -9.48 -11.88 2.39
31 HOU -15.5 8 1 7 0 12.5 12.1 -11.81 -15.25 3.44
32 DET -9.5 8 0 8 0 0.0 15.7 -11.99 -13.75 1.76
Code and Football 