Jalen Ramsay was traded from the Jaguars to the Rams for 1 2020 first round pick, a 2021 first round pick and a 4th round pick. The Rams have been a top 5 team the past couple years, so assuming the first rounders come out about 28th is reasonable. That would give the Jags two picks of approximate value 26 by the PFR charts. The fourth rounder, which we can estimate as pick 160 or so, is worth about 8 AV. This sums to about 60 AV.

So, the cost of the trade is very much close to that of Laremy Tunsil. And it will be interesting how these mid risk trades play out. The teams haven’t invested 90 or 100 AV in this venture. So will it work?

Jalen has averaged about 11 AV in his three seasons, and about 12 AV in his last two. Should he average 12 for the next five years (the Rams would have to resign him to make this work), then the trade breaks even.

It was news when it happened. Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills were traded for Johnson Bademosi and Julia’n Davenport and a bundle of picks. We have done extensive analysis of draft trades using approximate value calculations. So how does the Laremy Tunsil trade rack up in the AV department?

Miami received 2 first round draft picks, one in 2020 and one in 2021. They also received a 2021 second round draft pick. As these have not been consumed, we can’t be precise about their value, but the Texans tend to be a second tier playoff team. There are 16 playoff teams, so valuing the first rounds at around 22 and the second rounder as 54 would put us into the right ball park.

Miami is likely to be dreadful for the next couple years so the 2020 fourth we can value around 130 and the sixth rounder about slot 200.

 

Laremy Tunsil Trade
Houston Texans Miami Dolphins Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
130 7 22 27
200 7 22 27
54 21
Total 14 Total 75
62 5.36

 

Because the chart does not include the people involved in the trade, the risk ratio is actually meaningless in this context. The real issue are the 62 AV given up for Laremy and Stills and whether they would be able to recover that value.

Laremy has averaged 6 or 7 AV so far in his first three seasons, so that’s not really all that helpful. We will look instead at the career of Andrew Whitworth of the LA Rams. In his first 11 years he totalled 104 AV, so a good left tackle can rack up, say, 10 AV a season (this would be about a 30% increase in productivity for Laremy). Laremy is going to have to do it for 6 seasons for the trade to break even.

Looking at Kenny Stills, he was used a lot in certain years with New Orleans and Miami, but he’s not young and he’s not being used much. If he could average 5 AV for 5 more season, he would be a substantial boost to the value of the trade, but I suspect he’s not going to be with Houston for long.

Update: overvalued the Texans picks in the first iteration of this article. That has been corrected.

Bill traded up to pick 7 to get QB Josh Allen.

Josh Allen Trade
Buffalo Bills Buccaneers Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
7 32 12 35
53 22
56 19
Total 32 Total 76
44 2.38

~~~
The Cards moved up to pick 10 to draft Josh Rosen
~~~

Josh Rosen Trade
Cardinals Raiders Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
10 41 15 28
79 18
152 9
Total 41 Total 55
14 1.34

~~~
Saints move up to get Marcus Davenport, DE
~~~

Marcus Davenport Trade
Saints Packers Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
14 29 27 25
147 8
(25) 24
Total 29 Total 57
28 1.97

~~~
Bills go up to get Tremaine Edmunds
~~~

Tremaine Edmunds Trade
Bills Ravens Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
16 32 22 27
154 12 65 21
Total 44 Total 48
4 1.09

~~~
Packers trade again to get Jaire Alexander
~~~

Jaire Alexander Trade
Packers Seahawks Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
18 29 27 25
248 5 76 17
188 5
Total 34 Total 47
13 1.38

~~~
Titans trade up for Rashaan Evans
~~~

Jaire Alexander Trade
Packers Seahawks Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
18 29 27 25
248 5 76 17
188 5
Total 34 Total 47
13 1.38

~~~
Ravens trade 2019 assets to get their QB
~~~

Lamar Jackson Trade
Ravens Eagles Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
32 23 52 22
132 11 125 15
(48) 25
Total 34 Total 62
28 1.82

There are a number of ways to analyze a draft trade. You can do it by comparing the actual players selected (though that takes time), you can do it by trade value, as measured by a trade chart, or you can do it by using the Pro Football Reference statistic approximate value. There are charts of approximate value per draft choice and those charts can be used to calculate trade values and risk immediately.

The recent blockbuster trade by the Jets involves substantially more risk than the last five major trade ups in the NFL (here, here and here). To make these calculations I assume the Jet’s pick next year will be the 10th pick in the second round, hence the 42nd pick.

Trade for 3rd Pick
Jets Colts Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
3 45 6 39
37 28
49 20
42 25
Total 45 Total 112
67 2.49

 

With a risk ratio of 2.7 2,5, the risk incurred by the Jets is a bit less to what Washington put up with in the RGIII trade. It’s also comparable to the Earl Campbell trade. The last two trades were high risk – never paid back kinds of trades (though with Earl Campbell, the team’s competitiveness during his peak years may have been enough emotionally for the Oilers).

Update: recalculated risk, which now stands at 2.5 instead of 2.7.

This would have been done earlier, but Pro Football Reference dropped its very handy chart of draft position versus AV. I started missing it more and more, and using the Wayback Machine I found it here.

The three major QB trades of 2017 were the trade for Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson. We will analyze them in sequence.

Mitchell Trubisky Trade
Chicago Bears 49ers Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
2 46 3 45
67 19
111 12
(71) 21
Total 46 Total 97
51 2.11

 

The Bears have a trade risk comparable to a typical trade for a #1 draft choice and a quarterback at that. The trade has less fundamental risk than Goff or Wentz. The comparable that comes to mind is Eli Manning. By contrast, the delta AV of the other two trades are substantially less.

Patrick Mahomes Trade
Chiefs Bills Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
10 41 27 25
91 17
(25) 24
Total 41 Total 66
25 1.61

 
Mahomes merely has to give six seven good years, and the trade ends up warranted. The issue in the case of Deshaun Watson is keeping him upright. A fistful of whole years almost as good as his freshman year in the NFL and he would end up bordering on Hall of Fame numbers.

Deshaun Watson Trade
Texans Browns Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
12 35 25 24
4 44
Total 35 Total 68
33 1.94

 

So here is wishing Deshaun Watson a healthy career from now on.

I didn’t expect another trade of this magnitude, and so quickly. But let’s crunch the numbers on this trade, and compare them to the 2016 Titans-Rams trade.

The Browns received from the Eagles, the #8, #77 and #100 picks in this draft. In 2017 they receive the Eagles first round pick. In 2018 they receive the Eagles 2nd round pick. The Eagles have received the #2 pick in this draft, and the Browns 4th round pick in 2017.

For the purposes of this calculation, we assume the Eagles will pick 20th in 2017 and 2018, and that the Brown in 2017 will rise from 2nd to 10th.

 

The AV costs of the 2016 Eagles Browns trade.
Eagles Browns Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
2 46 8 40
(138) 8 77 12
100 17
(20) 29
(52) 22
Total 54 Total 120
66 2.22

 

The Delta AV for both trades are the same, but since the Eagles received a lot less AV, the relative ratio of AV given to AV received is higher. The trade cost is the same, but the purchase is more highly leveraged.

There were, of course, two substantial trades of Ricky Williams. The first netted the Washington Redskins the whole of the Saints 1999 draft, plus the Saint’s first and third round picks of 2000. Three years later, Ricky was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a pair of first rounders, plus change. The first was obviously not paid off. How did the Miami Dolphins fare in their trade, using our new risk metrics?

Risk Ratio no longer makes sense as a term when you’re talking about someone already drafted. The important term becomes the net risk term, 52 AV. That’s 1 more AV than the typical #1 draft choice, and that’s the amount of AV Ricky had to generate in order for this trade to break even. And note, these calculations are derived from weighted career AV, not raw AV. So any raw AV we apply to these numbers is a rough approximation (A typical career summing to, say, 95 AV, might end up around 76 or so WCAV).

That said, Ricky Williams had a great first season with the Dolphins, generating 19 AV in that season alone. His total ended up somewhere around 57 AV. I’d suggest the second trade approximately broke even.

End notes: I’ve seen a lot of discussion around  this set of data, discussing the quality of draft picks on a per pick basis, posted in of all places, a Cav’s board. If this board isn’t the original source of these graphs, please let me know. An excellent resource for high quality NFL draft trade information is here. And finally, a reader named Frank Dupont writes:

I wrote a book about decision making in the NFL.  It’s sort of a pop science book because it seeks to make what happens in the NFL understandable via some work that people like David Romer, Richard Thaler, and Daniel Kahneman have done.  But because all pop science books make their point through narrative, I spend a lot of time looking at why football coaches are so old, but other game players like chess players and poker players are so young (Tom Coughlin is 65 and yet the #1 ranked chess player in the world is 21, the world’s best poker players are 25-ish).

The link for the book is here, if this topic sounds interesting to you. I’ll only note in passing  that while physics prodigies are common, biologists seem to hit their stride in their 60s.  Some areas of knowledge do not easily lend themselves to the teen aged super genius.