NFL Stats: season 2011, week 8

To explain the columns below, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.

Today, Philadelphia is the only team with a losing record and a winning Pythagorean. Medians favor Baltimore, Green Bay and Cinncinnati, while SRS “likes” Detroit, San Francisco, and Green Bay.

 

NFL Stats: Season 2011, week 7

To explain the columns below, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.

At this juncture, Baltimore was upset by Jacksonville 12-7, and consequently, there are changes at the top of the various stats. New Orleans sits atop the HS rankings, while Baltimore still has edges in median point spread and Pythagorean expectation. But I suspect for many the statistical darling of the moment is San Francisco, with solid Pythagoreans, a good record, and the best simple ranking of them all.

 

NFL stats: season 2011, week 6

To repeat the nature of these stats, Median is a median point spread, and can be used to get a feel for how good a team is without overly weighting a blowout win or blowout loss. HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented in Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats. Pred is the predicted Pythagorean expectation. The exponent for this measure is fitted to the data set itself. SOS, SRS, and MOV are the simple ranking components. MOV is margin of victory, or point spread divided by games played. SOS is strength of schedule. SRS is the simple ranking.

Baltimore, by many measures, is now the #1 team in all of football, despite Green Bay’s 6-0 record. I’d tend to favor Green Bay in any matchup, because Aaron Rogers has been playing in an exceptional groove since about mid 2010. He evokes statements from QB savvy commenters like Trent Dilfer about how phenomenal his ball placement is.

In contrast to Baltimore, look at Kansas City. By many measures this team is one of the worst in football. But they are at 2-3, a better record than Philadelphia, and I suspect the stats of the day aren’t particularly  good at handling teams  that start poorly but improve. Stats are tools, no more, and anyone who has ever read, say, “The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind” can tell you, one man’s junk is another man’s wind powered electric generator.

Or, as Dallas Operator 7G once said, it’s not the wand, it’s the wizard.

 

NFL stats: season 2011, week 5

This is the week 5 edition of my NFL stats. Median is the median point spread, HS is Brian Burke’s Homemade Sagarin, as implemented through Maggie Xiong’s PDL::Stats module. Pct is the calculated win percentage, Pred is the Pythagorean expectation for the various teams. SRS, MOV, and SOS are the simple ranking statistics, as calculated by this module.

To note the potential value of a median point spread, please compare  the median point spread of San Francisco to the  MOV and Pythagorean expectations. It is relatively insensitive to one or two blowouts. Green Bay, by contrast, has a median point spread and a MOV far more closely aligned. Kansas City, notably, has a median point spread much better than the team MOV.

 

NFL Stats: Season 2011, week 4

This set of stats includes a Homemade Sagarin. Baltimore seems atop most metrics today, though Green Bay has a better record, and also a better SRS. Teams that have played better than their record include Arizona, Philadelphia, and Minnesota.

Median is the median point spread. HS is the homemade Sagarin, Pred is the predicted pythagorean expectation. SRS, MOV, and SOS are the simple ranking components (simple ranking, margin of victory, and strength of schedule respectively).