The break even point (AV) of the Jalen Ramsay trade

Jalen Ramsay was traded from the Jaguars to the Rams for 1 2020 first round pick, a 2021 first round pick and a 4th round pick. The Rams have been a top 5 team the past couple years, so assuming the first rounders come out about 28th is reasonable. That would give the Jags two picks of approximate value 26 by the PFR charts. The fourth rounder, which we can estimate as pick 160 or so, is worth about 8 AV. This sums to about 60 AV.

So, the cost of the trade is very much close to that of Laremy Tunsil. And it will be interesting how these mid risk trades play out. The teams haven’t invested 90 or 100 AV in this venture. So will it work?

Jalen has averaged about 11 AV in his three seasons, and about 12 AV in his last two. Should he average 12 for the next five years (the Rams would have to resign him to make this work), then the trade breaks even.

 

The break even point of the Laremy Tunsil Trade

It was news when it happened. Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills were traded for Johnson Bademosi and Julia’n Davenport and a bundle of picks. We have done extensive analysis of draft trades using approximate value calculations. So how does the Laremy Tunsil trade rack up in the AV department?

Miami received 2 first round draft picks, one in 2020 and one in 2021. They also received a 2021 second round draft pick. As these have not been consumed, we can’t be precise about their value, but the Texans tend to be a second tier playoff team. There are 16 playoff teams, so valuing the first rounds at around 22 and the second rounder as 54 would put us into the right ball park.

Miami is likely to be dreadful for the next couple years so the 2020 fourth we can value around 130 and the sixth rounder about slot 200.

 

Laremy Tunsil Trade
Houston Texans		Miami Dolphins		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
130	7	22	27
200	7	22	27
		54	21
Total	14	Total	75
				62	5.36

 

Because the chart does not include the people involved in the trade, the risk ratio is actually meaningless in this context. The real issue are the 62 AV given up for Laremy and Stills and whether they would be able to recover that value.

Laremy has averaged 6 or 7 AV so far in his first three seasons, so that’s not really all that helpful. We will look instead at the career of Andrew Whitworth of the LA Rams. In his first 11 years he totalled 104 AV, so a good left tackle can rack up, say, 10 AV a season (this would be about a 30% increase in productivity for Laremy). Laremy is going to have to do it for 6 seasons for the trade to break even.

Looking at Kenny Stills, he was used a lot in certain years with New Orleans and Miami, but he’s not young and he’s not being used much. If he could average 5 AV for 5 more season, he would be a substantial boost to the value of the trade, but I suspect he’s not going to be with Houston for long.

Update: overvalued the Texans picks in the first iteration of this article. That has been corrected.

 

Trades on day 1 of the 2018 Draft. AV analysis.

Bill traded up to pick 7 to get QB Josh Allen.

Josh Allen Trade
Buffalo Bills		Buccaneers		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
7	32	12	35
		53	22
		56	19
Total	32	Total	76
				44	2.38

~~~
The Cards moved up to pick 10 to draft Josh Rosen
~~~

Josh Rosen Trade
Cardinals		Raiders		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
10	41	15	28
		79	18
		152	9
Total	41	Total	55
				14	1.34

~~~
Saints move up to get Marcus Davenport, DE
~~~

Marcus Davenport Trade
Saints		Packers		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
14	29	27	25
		147	8
		(25)	24
Total	29	Total	57
				28	1.97

~~~
Bills go up to get Tremaine Edmunds
~~~

Tremaine Edmunds Trade
Bills		Ravens		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
16	32	22	27
154	12	65	21
Total	44	Total	48
				4	1.09

~~~
Packers trade again to get Jaire Alexander
~~~

Jaire Alexander Trade
Packers		Seahawks		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
18	29	27	25
248	5	76	17
		188	5
Total	34	Total	47
				13	1.38

~~~
Titans trade up for Rashaan Evans
~~~

Jaire Alexander Trade
Packers		Seahawks		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
18	29	27	25
248	5	76	17
		188	5
Total	34	Total	47
				13	1.38

~~~
Ravens trade 2019 assets to get their QB
~~~

Lamar Jackson Trade
Ravens		Eagles		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
32	23	52	22
132	11	125	15
		(48)	25
Total	34	Total	62
				28	1.82

 

The Jets – Colts trade is one of the riskiest trades in recent history.

There are a number of ways to analyze a draft trade. You can do it by comparing the actual players selected (though that takes time), you can do it by trade value, as measured by a trade chart, or you can do it by using the Pro Football Reference statistic approximate value. There are charts of approximate value per draft choice and those charts can be used to calculate trade values and risk immediately.

The recent blockbuster trade by the Jets involves substantially more risk than the last five major trade ups in the NFL (here, here and here). To make these calculations I assume the Jet’s pick next year will be the 10th pick in the second round, hence the 42nd pick.

Trade for 3rd Pick
Jets		Colts		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
3	45	6	39
		37	28
		49	20
		42	25
Total	45	Total	112
				67	2.49

 

With a risk ratio of 2.7 2,5, the risk incurred by the Jets is a bit less to what Washington put up with in the RGIII trade. It’s also comparable to the Earl Campbell trade. The last two trades were high risk – never paid back kinds of trades (though with Earl Campbell, the team’s competitiveness during his peak years may have been enough emotionally for the Oilers).

Update: recalculated risk, which now stands at 2.5 instead of 2.7.

 

The break even point of the three major 2017 QB draft trades

This would have been done earlier, but Pro Football Reference dropped its very handy chart of draft position versus AV. I started missing it more and more, and using the Wayback Machine I found it here.

The three major QB trades of 2017 were the trade for Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson. We will analyze them in sequence.

Mitchell Trubisky Trade
Chicago Bears		49ers		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
2	46	3	45
		67	19
		111	12
		(71)	21
Total	46	Total	97
				51	2.11

 

The Bears have a trade risk comparable to a typical trade for a #1 draft choice and a quarterback at that. The trade has less fundamental risk than Goff or Wentz. The comparable that comes to mind is Eli Manning. By contrast, the delta AV of the other two trades are substantially less.

Patrick Mahomes Trade
Chiefs		Bills		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
10	41	27	25
		91	17
		(25)	24
Total	41	Total	66
				25	1.61

 
Mahomes merely has to give six seven good years, and the trade ends up warranted. The issue in the case of Deshaun Watson is keeping him upright. A fistful of whole years almost as good as his freshman year in the NFL and he would end up bordering on Hall of Fame numbers.

Deshaun Watson Trade
Texans		Browns		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
12	35	25	24
		4	44
Total	35	Total	68
				33	1.94

 

So here is wishing Deshaun Watson a healthy career from now on.

 

The AV cost of the 2016 Eagles-Browns trade.

I didn’t expect another trade of this magnitude, and so quickly. But let’s crunch the numbers on this trade, and compare them to the 2016 Titans-Rams trade.

The Browns received from the Eagles, the #8, #77 and #100 picks in this draft. In 2017 they receive the Eagles first round pick. In 2018 they receive the Eagles 2nd round pick. The Eagles have received the #2 pick in this draft, and the Browns 4th round pick in 2017.

For the purposes of this calculation, we assume the Eagles will pick 20th in 2017 and 2018, and that the Brown in 2017 will rise from 2nd to 10th.

 

The AV costs of the 2016 Eagles Browns trade.
Eagles		Browns		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
2	46	8	40
(138)	8	77	12
		100	17
		(20)	29
		(52)	22
Total	54	Total	120
				66	2.22

 

The Delta AV for both trades are the same, but since the Eagles received a lot less AV, the relative ratio of AV given to AV received is higher. The trade cost is the same, but the purchase is more highly leveraged.

 

The AV cost of the 2016 Rams-Titans trade

Determining how to assess draft trades in the NFL is not hard (see here, here, and here). Ever since Pro Football Reference went through the trouble of determining what average AV can be assigned to a draft slot, it’s merely a matter of counting. The technique has some variance, as the draft slot of a future pick is not known. Even so, with a bit of conservative extrapolation, you can still get a feel for the overall cost of a trade.

 

First, the numbers:

 

The AV costs of the 2016 Rams Titans trade.
Rams		Titans		Results
Pick	Average AV	Pick	Average AV	Delta AV	Risk Ratio
1	51	15	28
113	14	43	24
177	5	45	25
		76	17
		(20)	29
		(84)	13
Total	70	Total	136
				66	1.94

 

In the data above, we assume that the Rams will improve 5 slots in draft placement, so that the first and third they sent to the Titans would be picks 20 and 84. If the Titans end up 18th or 23rd, it’s notable that the difference in value at this point is less than the point-to-point deviation, so that kind of change won’t affect the calculation much. Pro Football Reference’s raw data are moderately noisy.

The Rams total investment is 136 AV, roughly equal to the career value of John Elway. That’s not entirely accurate, as the Rams actually received three picks in return, and if the other two return 19, then the player they pick at #1, to return the value of the investment, only has to yield 117 AV.Now, 117 points is about mid in between Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rogers in value.

Update: Johnny Unitas, at 114, is a closer comparable.

In terms of risk, the trade is riskier than the Eli Manning trade, and less risky than the RG III trade or the Earl Campbell trade. For 9 more AV than the RG III trade, they received 24 more AV in return.

Best of luck to the Rams. I hope their picks work out well for them.

 

How good a NFL player do you get when you trade up in the first round?

This has been part of an ongoing conversation among Dallas fans, and perhaps among any of the 9 teams, from the Redskins to Patriots to the Vikings, that traded up in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft. There are some new tools for the analyst and the fan, and these include: (1) Pro Football Reference’s average AV per draft choice list, (2)  Pro Sports Transactions’ NFL draft trade charts, and (3) The Jonathan Bales’ article on Dallas Cowboys.com where he analyzes a series of first round trades up from 2000 to 2010. He concludes that in general, the trade up does not return as much value as it gives.

I suspect that Jonathan’s conclusion is also evident in the fantasydouche.com plot we reposted here. The classic trade chart of Jimmy Johnson really does overvalue the high end draft choices. You’re not paying for proven value, but rather potential when you trade up. I suspect by the break even metric we chose, comparing relative average AVs, that many draft trades never pay off, in part because people pay too much for the  value they receive. This is most evident in trading a current second or third and a future first for a current first round draft choice. These trades tend almost to be failures by design, and smack ultimately of desperation, true even when the player obtained (e.g. Jason Campbell) actually has some skills.

That said, how many of these players exceed the average abilities of the slot in which they were drafted? Now that we have the PFR chart, this is another question that can be asked of the first round players. Note that Jonathan Bales’ study doesn’t really answer the question of how good the player becomes, in part because the time frame chosen doesn’t allow the player adequate development. I started in the year 2000 1995, ended in the year 2007. I identified 67 players in that time frame, and I compared the AV for each player as given by the weighted average on the PFR player page. I’ll note that the player page and the annual draft pages do not agree on players’ weighted career accumulated value, so I assumed the personal pages were more accurate.

As far as a scale, we’re using the following:

AV relative to average	Ranking
-25 AV or more	Bust
-24 to -15 AV	Poor
-14 to -5 AV	Disappointing
-4 to +4 AV	Satisfactory
+5 to +14 AV	Good
+15 to +24 AV	Very Good
+25 AV and up	Excellent

 
Note there are some issues with the scale. Plenty of players from 1995 through 2007 are still playing, and their rankings are almost certainly going to change. In particular, Eli Manning at +24 and Jay Cutler at +23 have a great chance to end up scored as Excellent before the next season is over. Jason Campbell is at +19, and if he starts for a team for one season, he will end up with a ranking of Excellent. Santonio Holmes (+19) also has a shot at the Excellent category.

Players in the years 2006 and 2007 in lower categories (Manny Lawson at +7, Joe Staley at +4, Anthony Spencer at 0 ) could end up as Very Good, perhaps even Excellent if their careers continue.

The scoring ended up as

Scale	Number	Percent as Good	Percent as Bad
Excellent	14	20.9	100.0
Very Good	9	34.3	79.1
Good	13	53.7	65.7
Satisfactory	10	68.7	46.3
Disappointing	7	79.1	31.3
Poor	5	86.6	20.9
Bust	9	100.0	13.4

 
Data came from the sources above. A PDF of these raw data is here:

NFL Trade Ups

Update: Increased the dates of players considered from 2000-2007 to 1995-2007. Moved Ricky Williams back to 1999.

 

Assessing the break even point of the two Ricky Williams trades

There were, of course, two substantial trades of Ricky Williams. The first netted the Washington Redskins the whole of the Saints 1999 draft, plus the Saint’s first and third round picks of 2000. Three years later, Ricky was traded to the Miami Dolphins for a pair of first rounders, plus change. The first was obviously not paid off. How did the Miami Dolphins fare in their trade, using our new risk metrics?

Risk Ratio no longer makes sense as a term when you’re talking about someone already drafted. The important term becomes the net risk term, 52 AV. That’s 1 more AV than the typical #1 draft choice, and that’s the amount of AV Ricky had to generate in order for this trade to break even. And note, these calculations are derived from weighted career AV, not raw AV. So any raw AV we apply to these numbers is a rough approximation (A typical career summing to, say, 95 AV, might end up around 76 or so WCAV).

That said, Ricky Williams had a great first season with the Dolphins, generating 19 AV in that season alone. His total ended up somewhere around 57 AV. I’d suggest the second trade approximately broke even.

End notes: I’ve seen a lot of discussion around  this set of data, discussing the quality of draft picks on a per pick basis, posted in of all places, a Cav’s board. If this board isn’t the original source of these graphs, please let me know. An excellent resource for high quality NFL draft trade information is here. And finally, a reader named Frank Dupont writes:

I wrote a book about decision making in the NFL.  It’s sort of a pop science book because it seeks to make what happens in the NFL understandable via some work that people like David Romer, Richard Thaler, and Daniel Kahneman have done.  But because all pop science books make their point through narrative, I spend a lot of time looking at why football coaches are so old, but other game players like chess players and poker players are so young (Tom Coughlin is 65 and yet the #1 ranked chess player in the world is 21, the world’s best poker players are 25-ish).

The link for the book is here, if this topic sounds interesting to you. I’ll only note in passing  that while physics prodigies are common, biologists seem to hit their stride in their 60s.  Some areas of knowledge do not easily lend themselves to the teen aged super genius.

 

The break even points on the Eli Manning and Robert Griffin III trades.

In my last post, I introduced ways to determine the risk of NFL trades, using Pro Football Reference’s average AV per draft slot metric to assess the relative risk of the trade. I wish to continue the work done in the first post, by also taking a look  at the Eli Manning trades, and also the Robert Griffin III trades.

Eli's debt will be paid off in 2 more years of his current level of play.
RG3 will have to have a Sonny Jurgenson-like career, all in Washington, to pay off the value of the picks used to select him.

In the Eli trade, the New York Giants assumed a ‘AV debt’ comparable to that of Michael Vick, and a relative risk approximately the same as Michael Vick or Julio Jones. Looking, Eli has  rolled up perhaps 87 AV at this point, netting 12-15 AV a year. So, in two years, in purely AV terms, this trade would be even. Please note  that NFL championships appear to not net any AV, so if the value of the trade is measured in championships instead, I’d assume the New York Giants would consider themselves the outright winners of this trade.

The appropriate comparison with the Robert Griffin III trade is actually the Earl Campbell trade. The risk ratio is about the same, assuming the Washington Redskins go 8-8 and 9-7 the next two years, and end up with the #16 pick in 2013, and  the #20 pick in 2014. The lowest  value the AV Given column could total is 106, if the Washington Redskins ended up with the #31 pick twice. In any event, the Redskins are betting that RG3 will have a Sonny Jurgenson-esque career, and not just his Washington Redskin career, but his Eagles and Redskins career, in order to pay back the ‘AV debt’ that has been accrued by this trade.