2023 NFL Super Bowl, Formula + SRS odds

In the championship game are the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City. Kansas City had to beat the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC, whereas the 49ers were favored throughout. The game with Detroit was close. Had Detroit been able to hang on, it would have been their first Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Kansas City Chiefs	0.195	0.549	1.4

While the Formula sees a very close game, SRS gives the 49ers a substantial advantage.

Super Bowl Odds SRS Based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Kansas City Chiefs	1.014	0.734	7.5

 

2023 Conference Round Playoff Worksheet. Formula + SRS.

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here. 

Really there was only one upset, Kansas City over Buffalo, but Green Bay played well above its rankings and nearly beat San Francisco. We have calculated playoff odds for the two conference games, both with our playoff formula and also using Simple Rankings. The results are similar.

2023 Conference Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Detroit Lions	1.411	0.804	10.4
Baltimore Ravens	Kansas City Chiefs	1.269	0.781	9.4

The block below calculates odds via Simple Rankings. To add a HFA, add 3 points to the home team.

;

2023 Conference Round Playoff Odds SRS based.
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Detroit Lions	1.011	0.733	7.5
Baltimore Ravens	Kansas City Chiefs	1.273	0.782	9.4

 

2023 Second Round Worksheet. Formula + SRS

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here. 

Three upsets framed the Wild Card week. The first by Houston over Cleveland, the second Green Bay over Dallas, and the third the Tampa Bay Bucs over Philadelphia. The Green Bay performance was so dominant that no Packers QB in history, in games where DVOA can be calculated, had a game as good as Jordan Love’s last Sunday. That said, both my formulas and SRS predict substantive wins by the #1 seeds and close games otherwise.

2023 Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	1.010	0.733	7.5
Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Bucs	0.11	0.527	0.8
Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	2.079	0.889	15.4
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	0.359	0.589	2.7

The odds above are based on my formula, the ones below on raw Simple Rankings, with no HFA adjustment.

2023 Second Round Playoff Odds SRS based.
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	1.432	0.807	10.6
Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.432	0.606	3.2
Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	1.716	0.848	12.7
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	0.365	0.590	2.7

 

2023 Season Playoff Worksheet. First Round Odds. Formula + SRS.

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here. 

The teams most favored via the playoff formula are Baltimore and San Francisco. As these teams have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, this will not change. Particularly disliked by the playoff formulas are Dallas, Buffalo and Miami. We will also be presenting odds obtained by SRS. Note the SRS odds do not include a home field advantage. If you wish to handle that, add three points to the Home Team’s point spread..

(PX within 2 years) Logit P = 0.660 + 0.304(SOS) + 0.747(PPX)

2022 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	SF 49ers	0.660	0.747	0.040	1.447
2	Dallas Cowboys	0.660	0.747	-0.757	0.650
3	Detroit Lions	0.660	0.0	0.036	0.696
4	Tampa Bay Bucs	0.660	0.747	-0.161	1.246
5	Philadelphia Eagles	0.0	0.747	-0.210	0.537
6	LA Rams	0.0	0.747	0.353	1.100
7	Green Bay Packers	0.0	0.747	-0.310	0.437
AFC
1	Baltimore Ravens	0.660	0.747	0.456	1.863
2	Buffalo Bills	0.660	0.747	-0.456	0.951
3	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	-0.155	1.252
4	Houston Texans	0.660	0.000	-0.216	0.444
5	Cleveland Browns	0.0	0.0	0.483	0.483
6	Miami Dolphins	0.0	0.747	-0.456	0.291
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.0	0.747	0.651	1.398

Using the data above, we can calculate playoff odds for the first round. As this is a simple static model, it will not yield the same odds as a model based on offensive stats.

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	0.259	0.564	1.9
Detroit Lions	LA Rams	-0.404	0.400	-3.0
Tampa Bay Bucs	Philadelphia Eagles	0.709	0.670	5.2
Buffalo Bills	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.447	-0.390	-3.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	0.961	0.723	7.1
Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	-0.039	0.490	0.3

The following odds are calculated with Simple Rankings. These will more closely follow formulas using DVOA or other scoring stats.

First Round Playoff Odds SRS based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	1.081	0.747	8.0
Detroit Lions	LA Rams	0.169	0.542	1.3
Tampa Bay Bucs	Philadelphia Eagles	0.165	0.541	1.2
Buffalo Bills	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.781	0.686	5.8
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	-0.095	0.476	-0.7
Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	0.391	0.403	-2.9

Ideas to consider: are the Cleveland Browns a team with previous playoff experience? They played in the playoffs in 2020. If so, their ranking by my formula should be 1.23 instead, one of the highest of the wild card teams.

 

Week 18, 2023 Season

While the NFC went pretty much as predicted, the AFC was relatively entertaining. Jacksonville lost and Houston won, so Houston won their division. The Jacksonville loss put the Steelers into the playoffs. Buffalo beat Miami to take the AFC #2 seed. I don’t have my playoff odds now, perhaps tonight or in the next couple days.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
272       151     55.5      27.40        16.14     11.26

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.31


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     10.0    17  13   4   0  76.5  77.9  13.44  11.94  1.50
2     DAL     20.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  75.2   8.92  11.41 -2.49
3     SF      16.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  76.0  11.48  11.35  0.13
4     DET      5.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  58.8   4.00   3.88  0.12
5     MIA      7.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  63.4   4.68   6.18 -1.50
6     KC       7.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  63.1   4.02   4.53 -0.51
7     BUF      5.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  70.2   6.74   8.24 -1.50
8     PHI      4.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  50.7  -0.39   0.29 -0.69
9     CLE      2.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  55.2   3.59   2.00  1.59
10    PIT      4.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  46.3   0.96  -1.18  2.14
11    HOU      3.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  53.8   0.70   1.41 -0.71
12    LA       1.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  54.0   2.75   1.59  1.16
13    IND      3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  47.3  -1.07  -1.12  0.04
14    JAX      3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  50.9   1.70   0.35  1.35
15    CIN      3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  47.2   1.97  -1.06  3.03
16    TB       3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  53.9   0.83   1.35 -0.53
17    NO       1.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  61.7   1.94   4.41 -2.47
18    GB       1.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  55.2   0.92   1.94 -1.02
19    SEA      1.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  44.3  -1.24  -2.24  0.99
20    DEN     -1.0    17   8   9   0  47.1  41.7  -3.53  -3.29 -0.24
21    LV      -3.0    17   8   9   0  47.1  50.2  -0.59   0.06 -0.65
22    MIN     -2.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  47.1  -0.84  -1.06  0.21
23    ATL     -2.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  41.4  -5.25  -3.06 -2.19
24    CHI     -3.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  47.0  -2.30  -1.12 -1.18
25    NYJ     -4.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  34.3  -5.50  -5.12 -0.38
26    TEN     -3.0    17   6  11   0  35.3  39.5  -2.97  -3.65  0.68
27    NYG     -5.0    17   6  11   0  35.3  27.3  -8.17  -8.29  0.12
28    LAC     -3.0    17   5  12   0  29.4  42.0  -1.93  -3.06  1.13
29    NE      -5.0    17   4  13   0  23.5  26.7  -7.61  -7.65  0.04
30    ARI     -7.0    17   4  13   0  23.5  32.3  -5.70  -7.35  1.65
31    WAS     -7.0    17   4  13   0  23.5  26.0 -11.40 -11.12 -0.28
32    CAR     -9.0    17   2  15   0  11.8  21.3 -10.15 -10.59  0.44

 

Week 17, 2023 Season

The top six did not change, though Baltimore had a boost in SRS for its blowout win over Miami. Dallas lost half a point for its near loss to Detroit. So 1-6 are Baltimore, SF, Dallas, Buffalo, Miami, and Kansas City. The two worst are Washington and Carolina.

lobal Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
256       144     56.2      27.60        16.32     11.28

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.38


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     12.0    16  13   3   0  81.2  80.2  14.57  13.12  1.45
2     SF      16.5    16  12   4   0  75.0  78.0  12.14  12.12  0.01
3     DAL     13.0    16  11   5   0  68.8  73.8   8.42  10.38 -1.95
4     MIA      7.0    16  11   5   0  68.8  65.2   4.98   7.00 -2.02
5     DET      5.0    16  11   5   0  68.8  58.2   3.74   3.50  0.24
6     PHI      4.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  53.2   1.12   1.38 -0.25
7     CLE      2.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  58.4   4.72   3.19  1.53
8     KC       7.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  63.8   4.38   4.75 -0.37
9     BUF      4.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  70.7   6.44   8.31 -1.87
10    JAX      4.0    16   9   7   0  56.2  52.4   2.48   0.88  1.61
11    PIT      4.0    16   9   7   0  56.2  44.7  -0.22  -1.69  1.47
12    IND      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.2  47.7  -0.99  -0.94 -0.05
13    HOU      2.5    16   9   7   0  56.2  53.5   0.57   1.25 -0.68
14    LA       1.0    16   9   7   0  56.2  54.2   2.07   1.62  0.44
15    SEA      1.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  43.6  -1.11  -2.44  1.33
16    TB       0.5    16   8   8   0  50.0  52.5   1.05   0.88  0.17
17    GB       0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  54.2   0.44   1.56 -1.12
18    NO       0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  57.8   0.44   2.75 -2.31
19    DEN      0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  43.0  -2.84  -2.69 -0.15
20    CIN      0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  44.1   0.90  -2.19  3.09
21    MIN     -1.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  48.5  -0.48  -0.50  0.02
22    ATL     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  46.0  -3.85  -1.31 -2.53
23    CHI     -3.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  48.2  -1.91  -0.69 -1.23
24    LV      -3.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  47.7  -1.34  -0.75 -0.59
25    NYJ     -4.5    16   6  10   0  37.5  30.9  -6.05  -6.31  0.26
26    LAC     -3.0    16   5  11   0  31.2  41.6  -2.23  -3.19  0.96
27    TEN     -3.0    16   5  11   0  31.2  36.9  -3.71  -4.38  0.66
28    NYG     -6.5    16   5  11   0  31.2  23.0  -9.78  -9.88  0.09
29    NE      -4.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  27.7  -7.07  -7.25  0.18
30    WAS     -7.0    16   4  12   0  25.0  27.4 -10.81 -10.06 -0.74
31    ARI     -8.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  31.0  -5.81  -7.75  1.94
32    CAR     -9.0    16   2  14   0  12.5  21.5 -10.27 -10.69  0.42

 

Week 16, 2023 Season.

The big game of the week was Baltimore versus San Francisco, and Baltimore put it to SF, netting 5 interceptions in the game. So now Baltimore is #1 in SRS, San Francisco is #2, by a tiny margin, and Dallas, despite the loss to Miami, is #3. Buffalo, Miami, and KC are 4-6 respectively.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       134     55.8      27.49        16.33     11.16

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.25


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     10.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  77.0  12.38  11.53  0.84
2     SF      16.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  75.9  12.35  11.80  0.55
3     MIA      7.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  70.6   7.24   9.93 -2.69
4     DET      5.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  58.3   3.30   3.80 -0.50
5     PHI      5.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  53.9   2.39   1.73  0.65
6     DAL     20.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  73.6   9.15  11.00 -1.85
7     CLE      2.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  55.8   3.61   2.27  1.34
8     KC       7.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  62.6   4.25   4.53 -0.28
9     BUF      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  70.1   7.30   8.47 -1.17
10    PIT      4.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  43.1  -1.20  -2.27  1.07
11    IND      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  47.2  -1.41  -1.20 -0.21
12    JAX      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  48.0   1.27  -0.80  2.07
13    TB       3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.3   1.86   1.60  0.26
14    SEA      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  44.7  -0.71  -2.13  1.42
15    CIN      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  45.4   0.71  -1.80  2.51
16    HOU      2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.5  -0.96  -0.20 -0.76
17    LA       1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.1   2.39   1.67  0.72
18    GB      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  50.3  -0.97   0.13 -1.10
19    NO      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  56.1  -0.24   2.27 -2.51
20    DEN     -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  42.1  -3.33  -3.33  0.01
21    MIN     -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  52.8   0.98   1.00 -0.02
22    ATL     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  49.8  -2.61  -0.07 -2.54
23    LV      -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  48.3  -1.06  -0.60 -0.46
24    CHI     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  44.7  -3.12  -2.07 -1.05
25    NYJ     -4.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  33.2  -5.13  -5.60  0.47
26    LAC     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  42.9  -1.59  -2.93  1.34
27    TEN     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  41.2  -2.62  -3.13  0.52
28    NYG     -8.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  22.5 -10.21 -10.47  0.25
29    NE      -4.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  28.1  -7.16  -7.33  0.17
30    WAS     -7.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  29.7 -10.83  -9.60 -1.23
31    ARI    -10.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  29.7  -6.82  -8.53  1.71
32    CAR     -8.0    15   2  13   0  13.3  25.4  -9.20  -9.67  0.47

 

Week 15, 2023 Season

Again, there was a change in the top 3, as Dallas lost a spot due to its loss to Buffalo. SF is currently 1st in SRS, Balt is 2nd, and Dallas is 3rd. Buffalo, Miami, and KC are 4-6. In last place is Washington, followed by the Giants.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       126     56.2      27.42        16.09     11.32

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.15


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     SF      17.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  78.3  13.50  13.64 -0.14
2     BAL      9.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  75.9  11.73  11.36  0.37
3     DAL     20.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  74.1   9.46  11.93 -2.47
4     MIA     10.5    14  10   4   0  71.4  70.5   6.87  10.50 -3.63
5     DET      5.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  57.6   2.59   3.64 -1.05
6     PHI      4.5    14  10   4   0  71.4  52.8   2.76   1.29  1.47
7     KC       7.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  63.8   5.01   5.29 -0.27
8     CLE      2.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  53.6   3.10   1.43  1.68
9     BUF      4.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  70.2   7.93   8.93 -0.99
10    JAX      4.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  51.0   2.92   0.43  2.49
11    IND      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  50.2   0.15   0.07  0.08
12    CIN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  49.3   2.74  -0.29  3.02
13    HOU      2.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  52.0  -0.08   0.79 -0.86
14    SEA      1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  44.1  -0.63  -2.50  1.87
15    MIN      1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  54.0   1.09   1.50 -0.41
16    TB       0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.1   0.60   0.43  0.17
17    PIT      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  38.0  -2.66  -4.07  1.41
18    NO       0.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  57.8  -0.01   3.00 -3.01
19    DEN      0.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  42.3  -2.93  -3.36  0.42
20    LA      -1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  52.9   2.27   1.21  1.05
21    GB      -1.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  49.8  -1.11  -0.07 -1.03
22    ATL     -2.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  46.0  -4.12  -1.43 -2.70
23    LV      -4.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  47.0  -2.14  -1.07 -1.07
24    LAC     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  43.1  -2.33  -3.00  0.67
25    TEN     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  41.6  -2.48  -3.14  0.66
26    CHI     -4.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  42.7  -3.95  -3.00 -0.95
27    NYJ     -4.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  31.8  -4.92  -6.14  1.22
28    NYG    -10.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  22.3 -10.49 -10.64  0.15
29    WAS     -7.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  29.4 -11.18 -10.14 -1.04
30    NE      -4.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  26.5  -7.69  -8.07  0.38
31    ARI     -8.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  31.0  -6.26  -8.36  2.10
32    CAR     -9.0    14   2  12   0  14.3  24.5  -9.76 -10.14  0.38

 

Week 14, 2023 Season

The top 3 are the same, but shuffled, as San Francisco is number 1, Dallas is now number 2 after their win over the Eagles, and Baltimore is number 3. 4-6 are Buffalo, Miami, and Kansas City. The lowest SRS ranking is Washington, followed by Carolina.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       115     55.3      27.25        16.17     11.08

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.11


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     DAL     20.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  77.7  11.73  14.46 -2.73
2     SF      18.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  78.6  14.13  13.46  0.66
3     BAL      8.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  74.4  11.35  11.00  0.35
4     PHI      5.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  53.3   3.45   1.62  1.83
5     MIA      7.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  67.0   5.55   9.00 -3.45
6     DET      5.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  54.2   0.88   2.00 -1.12
7     KC       7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  62.8   5.32   4.92  0.39
8     JAX      5.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  53.9   3.24   1.69  1.55
9     CLE      2.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  53.2   3.63   1.31  2.32
10    PIT      4.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  40.9  -1.58  -3.08  1.49
11    BUF      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  67.9   6.20   8.00 -1.80
12    IND      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  47.4  -1.16  -1.23  0.08
13    CIN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  48.7   2.57  -0.54  3.10
14    MIN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  55.0   1.18   1.85 -0.67
15    HOU      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  51.5  -0.15   0.62 -0.76
16    DEN      1.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  46.1  -1.45  -1.69  0.24
17    NO      -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  54.6  -1.05   1.85 -2.90
18    GB      -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  52.5  -0.18   1.00 -1.18
19    SEA     -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  43.3  -0.91  -2.92  2.01
20    TB      -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  48.4  -0.79  -0.62 -0.18
21    ATL     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  46.4  -3.85  -1.38 -2.47
22    LA      -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  51.6   2.99   0.69  2.30
23    LAC     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  50.0   0.82   0.00  0.82
24    TEN     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  41.8  -2.64  -3.15  0.52
25    NYJ     -4.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  37.3  -3.47  -4.31  0.84
26    CHI     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  42.9  -4.58  -3.00 -1.58
27    LV      -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  37.2  -5.09  -4.38 -0.70
28    NYG     -5.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  24.2  -9.86 -10.08  0.22
29    WAS     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  29.4 -11.40 -10.31 -1.09
30    NE      -4.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  26.8  -7.95  -7.92 -0.02
31    ARI     -7.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  31.7  -6.10  -7.77  1.66
32    CAR    -10.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  23.9 -10.83 -11.08  0.24

 

Week 13, 2023 Season

There is a new team in first place in SRS rankings, San Francisco. Next is Baltimore, followed by Dallas. SF beat the stuffing out of the Eagles, and SRS follows blowouts. 4-6 Are Miami, Kansas City, and Buffalo.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
193       106     54.9      27.31        16.18     11.13

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.18


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      5.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  57.2   3.81   3.42  0.40
2     DAL     21.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  77.5  10.27  14.00 -3.73
3     SF      18.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  79.5  14.24  13.58  0.65
4     MIA     10.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  69.0   5.62   9.83 -4.22
5     BAL      9.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  76.8  12.07  11.42  0.66
6     DET      5.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  57.3   2.93   3.42 -0.49
7     KC       7.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  64.8   5.30   5.58 -0.28
8     JAX      6.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  55.2   4.23   2.17  2.06
9     PIT      4.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  40.5  -0.49  -3.08  2.59
10    IND      3.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  50.7   0.65   0.33  0.32
11    HOU      2.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  56.6   2.53   2.67 -0.14
12    CLE      1.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  52.8   3.51   1.08  2.43
13    BUF      1.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  69.1   5.10   8.42 -3.31
14    SEA      1.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  44.9  -1.25  -2.17  0.91
15    MIN      1.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  54.5   1.48   1.75 -0.27
16    DEN      0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  42.5  -3.28  -3.25 -0.03
17    GB       0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.3   1.04   1.25 -0.21
18    CIN      0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  44.3   1.59  -2.25  3.84
19    ATL     -0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  46.7  -3.35  -1.17 -2.19
20    LA      -1.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  53.1   2.90   1.25  1.65
21    LAC     -2.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  53.5   2.15   1.42  0.73
22    TB      -2.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  47.3  -0.34  -1.00  0.66
23    NO      -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  50.4  -1.34   0.17 -1.51
24    LV      -6.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  37.4  -5.73  -4.50 -1.23
25    TEN     -3.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  40.3  -2.68  -3.50  0.82
26    NYJ     -4.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  30.2  -6.32  -6.67  0.34
27    CHI     -5.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  39.2  -5.99  -4.50 -1.49
28    NYG    -10.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  21.0 -11.70 -11.08 -0.62
29    WAS     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  28.8 -12.15 -10.31 -1.85
30    ARI     -7.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  31.1  -6.15  -7.77  1.62
31    NE      -4.5    12   2  10   0  16.7  23.5  -9.17  -8.83 -0.34
32    CAR     -9.0    12   1  11   0   8.3  25.4  -9.46 -10.17  0.71