Data


LA is favored, but not by much. The difference in SRS is 1.86 points, which suggests that LA should have odds of winning of 56%. The Rams were in the playoffs last season, and Cincinnati hasn’t been in a while, which also factors into the Ram’s favor. Rams played the tougher schedule, also a factor in their favor.

That said, Joe Burrow has faced worse odds before. Will they be the Miracle Bengals? I guess we will have to find out.

So now we are down to two games, Cincinnati at Kansas City and 49ers versus Rams. By SRS, KC should be favored by 4.3 points and have a winning percentage of 64%. Splitting the season creates even worse odds for Cincinnati. Rams and 49ers, it depends on if you slice the season in two or not. Rams have a 1.5 point advantage if the whole season is used. if weeks 10 through 17 are used, the 49ers should be favored by 5.1 points. The WP of the two different scenarios is Rams by 55% if whole season data are used, and 49ers by 67% if the split season is used.

There are four playoff games upcoming. We’ll discuss AFC first, then NFC second. Buffalo at KC, ignoring HFA, should be favored by Buffalo by about two and a half points. The win probability here is 58% in favor of the Bills. Cin at Ten is close, with TEN favored by 0.34 points The Titans win percentage is 51%. LAR at Tampa Bay, Tampa is favored by about 3.3 points. Tampa Bay’s WP is 61%. 49ers at Green Bay, SRS says that Green Bay should be favored by 0.7 points, and the GB WP is calculated to be 52%.

To note, in the case of Kansas City /Buffalo, if you throw out the first seven games of the year and recalculate the odds by SRS, then KC has a SRS of 14.66 and Buffalo has one of 6.80, in which case KC is favored by 7.86 points. That becomes a WP in favor of KC by 74%. Likewise, if you do the same for Green Bay and San Francisco, then Green Bay is favored by almost three points with a WP of 59%. Cin at Ten does not change much, and the Rams and Tampa Bay become close, less than a point apart.

Conversions between point spread and winning percentage is given here.

There are six playoff games this weekend, and without my old playoff model in play,we will be discussing favorites based on offensive stats. The first game is Raiders at Bengals, and Bengals, ignoring the very minor HFA effect this year, should be favored by about six points, and thus have about a 70% change of winning.

New England and Buffalo are the next teams in consideration, and ignoring HFA, Buffalo should be favored by about one and a half points, roughly 55% change of winning.

The third pair of teams in consideration is Philadelphia at Tampa Bay. The SRS delta is about six points, and so Tampa Bay would have a 70% change of winning.

The fourth pair of teams is San Francisco at Dallas. Dallas is favored by SRS to the tune of six points, roughly a 70% chance of winning. If you cut the season in half the advantage is three points, but San Francisco’s SOS through that period is awful, three points below average. San Francisco overall wasn’t beating very good teams in its playoff run.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City. KC has a 10 point advantage by SRS. Winning percentage for KC is well over 80%.

The final playoff game, on Monday, is Arizona at LA Rams. This game is even, a pick ’em game. Differences in offensive stats are less than 0.2 points between the two.

The end of the season has arrived. There were some excellent games this week: San Francisco over the Rams, Seattle over Arizona, Jacksonville over Indianapolis, and the Raiders over the Chargers. SRS top five are Buffalo, Dallas, New England, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City.

Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
272       140     51.5      29.01        16.83     12.18

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.13


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     TB       6.0    17  13   4   0  76.5  68.8   8.39   9.29 -0.91
2     GB       3.0    17  13   4   0  76.5  60.1   4.28   4.65 -0.37
3     DAL      7.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  69.8   9.76  10.12 -0.35
4     LA       7.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  61.1   5.12   5.18 -0.06
5     KC       6.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  64.3   7.55   6.82  0.73
6     TEN      3.0    17  12   5   0  70.6  58.9   3.60   3.82 -0.23
7     BUF     15.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  74.9  10.00  11.41 -1.41
8     ARI      7.0    17  11   6   0  64.7  60.7   5.02   4.88  0.14
9     NE       3.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  71.1   8.63   9.35 -0.72
10    CIN      3.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  60.6   3.26   4.94 -1.69
11    SF       3.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  58.3   3.60   3.65 -0.05
12    LV       3.0    17  10   7   0  58.8  41.5  -3.09  -3.82  0.73
13    PIT      1.0    17   9   7   1  55.9  42.1  -2.31  -3.24  0.92
14    IND      6.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  61.1   4.60   5.06 -0.46
15    LAC      3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  51.7   1.25   0.88  0.37
16    PHI      3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  57.5   2.33   3.47 -1.14
17    NO       3.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  54.4   1.88   1.71  0.17
18    MIA      1.0    17   9   8   0  52.9  45.2  -2.56  -1.88 -0.67
19    MIN     -1.0    17   8   9   0  47.1  49.9   0.08  -0.06  0.14
20    BAL     -1.0    17   8   9   0  47.1  49.3  -0.11  -0.29  0.18
21    CLE     -2.0    17   8   9   0  47.1  46.7  -1.17  -1.29  0.13
22    SEA     -2.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  54.1   1.77   1.71  0.06
23    DEN     -4.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  52.1  -0.36   0.76 -1.12
24    WAS     -4.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  36.5  -4.38  -5.82  1.45
25    ATL     -6.0    17   7  10   0  41.2  30.7  -8.66  -8.59 -0.08
26    CHI     -8.0    17   6  11   0  35.3  36.0  -5.37  -5.65  0.28
27    CAR     -8.0    17   5  12   0  29.4  35.3  -5.65  -5.88  0.23
28    NYJ     -7.0    17   4  13   0  23.5  26.2 -10.19 -11.41  1.22
29    HOU    -10.0    17   4  13   0  23.5  26.5  -9.55 -10.12  0.57
30    NYG    -14.0    17   4  13   0  23.5  26.5  -8.48  -9.29  0.82
31    DET     -4.0    17   3  13   1  20.6  31.6  -7.97  -8.35  0.38
32    JAX    -12.0    17   3  14   0  17.6  22.1 -11.24 -12.00  0.76

Those of you looking for playoff probabilities can look here. Otherwise, the top 5 teams by SRS in order are: Buffalo, New England, Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City. Of the 9 win teams, Indianapolis is the highest ranked.

Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
256       132     51.6      28.91        16.61     12.29

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.14


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     GB       5.5    16  13   3   0  81.2  62.0   5.40   5.38  0.02
2     LA       8.0    16  12   4   0  75.0  62.3   5.41   5.69 -0.28
3     TB       6.0    16  12   4   0  75.0  67.2   7.95   8.38 -0.43
4     ARI      8.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  62.8   5.63   5.69 -0.05
5     DAL      6.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  68.7   8.80   9.19 -0.38
6     KC       6.0    16  11   5   0  68.8  64.8   7.90   7.00  0.90
7     TEN      3.0    16  11   5   0  68.8  59.1   4.20   3.88  0.32
8     BUF     14.5    16  10   6   0  62.5  74.1  10.15  11.06 -0.91
9     NE       3.5    16  10   6   0  62.5  73.8   9.76  10.50 -0.74
10    CIN      3.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  61.8   3.69   5.56 -1.88
11    IND      6.0    16   9   7   0  56.2  63.6   6.39   6.31  0.08
12    SF       4.5    16   9   7   0  56.2  58.5   3.40   3.69 -0.29
13    LAC      3.5    16   9   7   0  56.2  52.2   1.68   1.12  0.56
14    PHI      3.5    16   9   7   0  56.2  61.8   3.27   5.25 -1.98
15    LV       2.5    16   9   7   0  56.2  40.3  -3.46  -4.25  0.79
16    PIT      0.5    16   8   7   1  53.1  41.3  -2.62  -3.62  1.01
17    NO       0.5    16   8   8   0  50.0  53.1   1.97   1.19  0.79
18    BAL      0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  49.7   0.24  -0.12  0.37
19    MIA     -0.5    16   8   8   0  50.0  43.3  -3.71  -2.56 -1.14
20    MIN     -1.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  48.0  -0.42  -0.94  0.52
21    CLE     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  45.8  -1.65  -1.69  0.04
22    DEN     -3.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  53.0  -0.76   1.06 -1.83
23    ATL     -5.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  30.6  -8.87  -8.50 -0.37
24    SEA     -2.5    16   6  10   0  37.5  53.2   1.06   1.31 -0.25
25    WAS     -5.5    16   6  10   0  37.5  34.0  -4.99  -7.12  2.14
26    CHI     -5.5    16   6  10   0  37.5  37.1  -4.88  -5.12  0.25
27    CAR     -7.0    16   5  11   0  31.2  37.7  -5.10  -4.75 -0.35
28    NYJ     -7.0    16   4  12   0  25.0  27.0 -10.32 -11.06  0.74
29    HOU    -12.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  25.2 -10.11 -10.56  0.45
30    NYG    -12.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  27.6  -7.86  -8.94  1.08
31    DET     -6.0    16   2  13   1  15.6  29.0  -9.09  -9.31  0.23
32    JAX    -13.0    16   2  14   0  12.5  19.0 -13.06 -13.69  0.62

By SRS the best teams are BUF, DAL, TB, NE, KC. The spread of values seems narrower, in a kind of “anyone can beat anyone” way. The 6th team by SRS is Indianapolis. The best 8 win team is Philadelphia.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       121     50.4      28.83        16.70     12.13

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.06


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     GB       3.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  58.5   3.57   3.93 -0.37
2     LA       9.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  62.3   5.51   6.00 -0.49
3     DAL      7.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  69.4   9.66  10.00 -0.34
4     TB       6.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  67.2   9.23   8.67  0.57
5     KC       6.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  65.9   8.19   7.67  0.52
6     ARI     10.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  62.7   5.02   5.87 -0.84
7     TEN      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  54.7   2.63   2.07  0.56
8     BUF     15.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  72.9  10.64  10.87 -0.22
9     IND      6.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  64.3   7.09   6.93  0.16
10    CIN      3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  61.9   2.81   5.73 -2.92
11    NE       3.0    15   9   6   0  60.0  69.5   8.83   8.53  0.29
12    LAC      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.6   0.63  -0.20  0.83
13    PHI      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  61.4   3.97   5.33 -1.36
14    SF       3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  56.2   2.86   2.87 -0.00
15    LV       2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  39.7  -4.10  -4.73  0.64
16    BAL      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  49.9  -0.18  -0.07 -0.11
17    MIA      1.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  48.3  -1.91  -0.67 -1.25
18    PIT      0.0    15   7   7   1  50.0  39.4  -3.91  -4.67  0.76
19    MIN     -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  51.6   0.54   0.80 -0.26
20    NO      -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  51.8   2.11   0.73  1.38
21    CLE     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  47.6  -1.24  -1.00 -0.24
22    DEN     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  57.0   0.48   2.53 -2.05
23    ATL     -4.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  32.1  -8.65  -8.13 -0.51
24    WAS     -7.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  34.3  -5.01  -7.33  2.33
25    SEA     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  49.8  -0.06  -0.07  0.01
26    CAR     -6.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  38.9  -4.60  -4.53 -0.06
27    CHI     -8.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  33.1  -6.77  -7.20  0.43
28    NYJ     -7.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  26.8 -10.97 -11.53  0.56
29    HOU    -10.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  27.1  -9.89 -10.20  0.31
30    NYG    -11.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  31.1  -5.86  -7.80  1.94
31    DET     -4.0    15   2  12   1  16.7  30.5  -8.61  -8.47 -0.15
32    JAX    -12.0    15   2  13   0  13.3  22.4 -12.05 -11.93 -0.11

Late post because of the Xmas holidays. The top six by SRS are: Buffalo, New England, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Indianapolis.

Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       111     49.6      28.76        16.70     12.06

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.11


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     GB       5.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  59.0   4.19   4.07  0.12
2     ARI     10.5    14  10   4   0  71.4  64.6   5.33   6.71 -1.38
3     LA       9.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  62.5   5.35   5.93 -0.58
4     DAL      6.5    14  10   4   0  71.4  66.0   8.12   7.71  0.41
5     TB       6.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  65.0   8.27   7.43  0.84
6     KC       6.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  63.5   7.50   6.36  1.15
7     NE       3.5    14   9   5   0  64.3  73.4   9.09  10.00 -0.91
8     TEN      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  54.6   2.20   2.00  0.20
9     BUF     16.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  73.5   9.62  10.79 -1.16
10    IND      8.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  64.5   6.30   7.00 -0.70
11    SF       4.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  57.2   3.12   3.29 -0.17
12    LAC      3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  51.3   2.38   0.64  1.74
13    CIN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  60.3   2.04   4.71 -2.67
14    BAL      1.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  53.1   1.07   1.36 -0.28
15    PIT      0.5    14   7   6   1  53.6  42.6  -2.74  -3.14  0.40
16    DEN      2.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  58.3   1.26   3.00 -1.74
17    MIN      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  52.8   1.06   1.36 -0.30
18    NO       0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  54.9   3.50   2.00  1.50
19    PHI      0.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  58.7   3.20   4.00 -0.80
20    LV       0.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  38.4  -4.62  -5.36  0.74
21    CLE      0.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  47.7  -1.18  -0.93 -0.25
22    MIA     -0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  45.2  -3.80  -1.93 -1.87
23    ATL     -5.0    14   6   8   0  42.9  30.2  -9.01  -9.00 -0.01
24    WAS     -5.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  38.8  -2.99  -4.86  1.87
25    SEA     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  50.0   0.69   0.00  0.69
26    CAR     -6.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  42.5  -3.96  -3.00 -0.96
27    NYG     -7.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  33.3  -4.98  -6.64  1.67
28    CHI     -9.0    14   4  10   0  28.6  31.2  -7.08  -7.79  0.71
29    NYJ    -11.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  24.3 -11.72 -12.71  0.99
30    HOU    -12.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  22.5 -11.81 -11.79 -0.03
31    DET     -5.5    14   2  11   1  17.9  29.6  -8.10  -8.79  0.68
32    JAX    -13.0    14   2  12   0  14.3  20.7 -12.31 -12.43  0.12

The top 5 by SRS are: New England, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Arizona. Kansas City is sixth so far and a fast riser. Indianapolis is seventh. Among the 6 win teams, New Orleans has the best SRS and Atlanta the worst. That said, Atlanta has two more wins than the previous year with 4 games to go, and are still in the playoff race.

Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       103     49.5      29.10        16.87     12.24

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.10


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     ARI     11.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  68.3   7.83   8.62 -0.78
2     GB       8.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.7   4.02   4.31 -0.28
3     TB       6.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  66.3   9.46   8.69  0.77
4     LA       9.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  61.5   5.26   5.62 -0.35
5     DAL      6.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  64.3   8.15   7.15  1.00
6     KC       6.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  63.8   7.37   6.38  0.98
7     NE       4.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  76.4  10.31  11.54 -1.23
8     TEN      3.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  55.8   3.35   2.62  0.74
9     LAC      4.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  52.3   2.25   1.15  1.10
10    BAL      2.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  53.6   0.36   1.54 -1.18
11    BUF     15.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  72.5   9.56  10.31 -0.75
12    DEN      7.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  59.7   1.28   3.62 -2.34
13    IND      6.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  63.8   5.57   6.77 -1.20
14    CIN      3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  59.8   1.18   4.69 -3.51
15    SF       3.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  54.7   2.76   2.15  0.61
16    CLE      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  48.0  -1.11  -0.85 -0.26
17    PIT      0.0    13   6   6   1  50.0  41.2  -4.10  -3.85 -0.25
18    MIN     -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  51.7   0.64   0.85 -0.21
19    NO      -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  53.4   2.88   1.46  1.42
20    LV      -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  37.6  -5.29  -5.92  0.64
21    MIA     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  43.4  -3.50  -2.62 -0.89
22    PHI     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  57.6   2.78   3.54 -0.76
23    WAS     -4.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  39.8  -2.56  -4.46  1.90
24    ATL     -4.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  31.7  -8.08  -8.31  0.23
25    SEA     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  52.0   1.16   0.77  0.39
26    CAR     -6.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  45.1  -3.33  -1.92 -1.41
27    NYG     -3.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  35.2  -4.72  -6.00  1.28
28    CHI    -10.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  31.8  -7.58  -7.77  0.19
29    NYJ    -15.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  23.4 -11.62 -13.15  1.53
30    JAX    -12.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  20.8 -10.97 -12.31  1.33
31    HOU    -15.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  18.7 -12.38 -13.77  1.39
32    DET     -8.0    13   1  11   1  11.5  25.6 -10.96 -10.85 -0.11

The NFL has a new SRS champeen, and the name of the team is the New England Patriots. Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Dallas round out the top 5. Sixth is Indianapolis. Seventh is Kansas City.

Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
194        95     49.0      28.85        16.76     12.09

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.10


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     ARI     11.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  71.0   8.68   9.92 -1.24
2     TB       6.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  66.8   8.71   8.92 -0.20
3     GB       5.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  58.1   3.67   3.42  0.26
4     NE       4.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  76.4  10.25  11.54 -1.28
5     LA       9.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  61.3   4.65   5.50 -0.85
6     DAL      5.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  64.2   8.16   7.17  0.99
7     KC       5.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  58.2   5.09   3.67  1.43
8     TEN      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  52.5   2.76   1.17  1.59
9     BAL      2.5    12   8   4   0  66.7  54.3   0.72   1.83 -1.11
10    BUF     16.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  75.6   9.94  11.67 -1.73
11    LAC      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  49.8   1.40  -0.08  1.48
12    CIN      3.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  61.1   1.71   5.33 -3.62
13    PIT      0.5    12   6   5   1  54.2  41.7  -3.61  -3.50 -0.11
14    IND      6.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  63.8   5.59   6.77 -1.18
15    SF       2.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  54.5   2.81   2.08  0.72
16    DEN      2.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  54.4  -0.04   1.58 -1.62
17    LV       0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  43.2  -3.29  -3.17 -0.12
18    CLE     -0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  47.4  -1.35  -1.08 -0.26
19    WAS     -1.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  40.2  -3.21  -4.25  1.04
20    MIA     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  43.4  -3.17  -2.62 -0.56
21    PHI     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  57.6   2.67   3.54 -0.87
22    MIN     -1.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  50.5   0.67   0.25  0.42
23    NO      -2.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  49.6   2.15  -0.17  2.31
24    CAR     -4.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  46.4  -2.25  -1.42 -0.84
25    ATL     -5.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  28.9  -9.17  -9.67  0.50
26    SEA     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  47.9   0.53  -0.83  1.36
27    NYG     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  36.8  -4.31  -5.17  0.86
28    CHI     -6.5    12   4   8   0  33.3  32.1  -6.86  -7.17  0.31
29    NYJ    -11.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  24.9 -11.09 -12.50  1.41
30    JAX    -11.0    12   2  10   0  16.7  23.0 -10.62 -11.67  1.05
31    HOU    -12.5    12   2  10   0  16.7  19.4 -11.67 -13.25  1.58
32    DET     -5.5    12   1  10   1  12.5  28.3  -9.51  -9.42 -0.09

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