Football


Conventional wisdom went 3-1 and my picks went 2-2; perhaps I would have done better if the Seahawks hadn’t suffered so many injuries at the end of the season. The Titans continue their upset ways while Green Bay, Kansas City, and San Francisco won as favorites.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers Green Bay Packers 0.263 0.56 2.0
Kansas City Chiefs Tennessee Titans 1.031 0.74 7.6

The first round of the playoffs were full of upsets. The Titans upset the Patriots and the Vikings upset the Saints. Both upsets were driven by ground games that both scored and consumed the clock.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers Minnesota Vikings 0.372 0.59 2.8
Green Bay Packers Seattle Seahawks -0.194 0.45 -1.4
Baltimore Ravens Tennessee Titans 0.985 0.73 7.3
Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans 0.429 0.61 3.2

The methodology of this work is described here.

This year, the formulas favor the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks. Baltimore has the advantage in any possible encounter in the AFC. Seattle has the advantage over any team not named the New Orleans Saints. As the Saints lose their HFA against Green Bay, they are not favored against Green Bay. The odds of a Seattle-New Orleans matchup are small.

2019 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank Name Home Field Adv Playoff Experience SOS Total Score
1 San Francisco 49ers 0.660 0 0.125 0.785
2 Green Bay Packers 0.660 0.747 -0.225 1.182
3 New Orleans Saints 0.660 0.747 0.015 1.422
4 Philadelphia Eagles 0.660 0.747 -0.511 0.896
5 Seattle Seahawks 0.0 0.747 0.690 1.376
6 Minnesota Vikings 0.0 0.747 -0.334 0.413
AFC
1 Baltimore Ravens 0.660 0.747 0.015 1.422
2 Kansas City Chiefs 0.660 0.747 0.061 1.468
3 New England Patriots 0.660 0.747 -0.535 0.872
4 Houston Texans 0.660 0.747 0.292 1.699
5 Buffalo Bills 0.0 0.747 -0.380 0.367
6 Tennessee Titans 0.0 0.747 -0.310 0.437

 

The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

Because the worksheet above can be hard to decipher, for the first week of the 2019 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team Visiting Team Score Diff Win Prob Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints Minnesota Vikings 1.009 0.733 7.5
Philadelphia Eagles Seattle Seahawks -0.541 0.368 -4.0
New England Patriots Tennessee Titans 0.435 0.607 3.2
Houston Texans Buffalo Bills 1.332 0.791 9.9

Again, apologies. Father issues.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
256       132     51.6      28.53        16.89     11.64

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.63


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     15.0    16  14   2   0  87.5  84.1  15.62  15.56  0.05
2     SF       7.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  75.9  10.97  10.56  0.41
3     NO       7.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  68.5   7.36   7.31  0.05
4     GB       7.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  61.8   3.20   3.94 -0.74
5     NE      10.5    16  12   4   0  75.0  83.8  10.43  12.19 -1.76
6     KC       7.0    16  12   4   0  75.0  73.2   9.14   8.94  0.20
7     SEA      2.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  51.1   2.71   0.44  2.27
8     MIN      7.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  68.5   5.40   6.50 -1.10
9     BUF      5.5    16  10   6   0  62.5  62.4   2.19   3.44 -1.25
10    HOU      3.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  48.8   0.52  -0.44  0.96
11    PHI      5.5    16   9   7   0  56.3  55.5   0.26   1.94 -1.68
12    LA       5.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  55.2   3.91   1.88  2.04
13    TEN      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  62.5   3.42   4.44 -1.02
14    DAL      3.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  68.9   5.29   7.06 -1.77
15    CHI      0.5    16   8   8   0  50.0  45.9  -0.89  -1.13  0.23
16    PIT      0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  46.9   0.29  -0.88  1.17
17    TB      -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  51.3   0.39   0.56 -0.18
18    ATL     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  47.0  -0.07  -1.13  1.05
19    OAK     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  31.7  -6.90  -6.63 -0.27
20    DEN     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  42.6  -2.12  -2.13  0.00
21    IND     -2.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  47.8  -1.83  -0.75 -1.08
22    NYJ     -4.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  33.4  -6.31  -5.19 -1.12
23    CLE     -6.0    16   6  10   0  37.5  39.6  -1.90  -3.63  1.72
24    JAX     -7.0    16   6  10   0  37.5  32.4  -6.69  -6.06 -0.62
25    ARI     -4.5    16   5  10   1  34.4  37.0  -3.23  -5.06  1.84
26    LAC     -3.0    16   5  11   0  31.3  48.5  -1.32  -0.50 -0.82
27    CAR     -6.0    16   5  11   0  31.3  29.9  -7.03  -8.13  1.10
28    MIA    -11.5    16   5  11   0  31.3  22.1 -11.56 -11.75  0.19
29    NYG     -6.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  32.4  -7.88  -6.88 -1.00
30    DET     -4.0    16   3  12   1  21.9  36.2  -5.23  -5.13 -0.11
31    WAS    -10.0    16   3  13   0  18.8  21.5 -10.78 -10.56 -0.22
32    CIN     -6.5    16   2  14   0  12.5  25.4  -7.34  -8.81  1.47

Sorry for the delays. My father was admitted to the hospital and ended up having colon surgery before it was through. The general turmoil of this holiday season would be hard to describe.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       125     52.1      28.46        16.84     11.62

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.73


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     14.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  84.3  15.52  15.40  0.12
2     NE      14.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  86.9  12.06  13.20 -1.14
3     SF       9.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  77.3  11.26  10.93  0.33
4     NO       7.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  65.1   6.16   5.67  0.49
5     GB       7.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  62.5   3.62   4.00 -0.38
6     KC       7.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  73.9   9.27   8.87  0.40
7     SEA      3.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  52.2   2.49   0.80  1.69
8     MIN     10.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  70.5   5.89   7.07 -1.18
9     BUF      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  64.9   3.12   4.13 -1.01
10    HOU      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  52.7   1.73   0.93  0.80
11    PHI      5.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  52.8  -0.33   0.93 -1.27
12    TEN      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  59.9   2.39   3.33 -0.94
13    LA       3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.5   3.83   1.53  2.29
14    PIT      2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  51.0   0.53   0.27  0.26
15    TB      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  52.4   0.81   1.00 -0.19
16    CHI     -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  44.9  -1.49  -1.33 -0.15
17    DAL     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  65.7   4.28   5.47 -1.19
18    IND     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  51.2  -0.47   0.40 -0.87
19    OAK     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  30.5  -7.27  -7.00 -0.27
20    DEN     -2.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  41.6  -1.77  -2.33  0.56
21    ATL     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  45.5  -0.48  -1.60  1.12
22    CLE     -5.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  40.4  -0.97  -3.20  2.23
23    NYJ     -8.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  30.9  -7.39  -6.00 -1.39
24    ARI     -3.0    15   5   9   1  36.7  36.8  -3.21  -4.93  1.72
25    LAC     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  50.4  -1.43   0.13 -1.56
26    CAR     -6.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  33.0  -5.84  -6.53  0.70
27    JAX     -7.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  27.0  -8.24  -7.67 -0.57
28    NYG     -6.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  33.4  -7.30  -6.20 -1.10
29    MIA    -13.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  19.4 -13.05 -12.73 -0.32
30    DET     -4.0    15   3  11   1  23.3  35.4  -5.55  -5.27 -0.29
31    WAS    -10.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  23.1  -9.76  -9.20 -0.56
32    CIN     -7.0    15   1  14   0   6.7  21.3  -8.42 -10.07  1.65

The word being used to describe the Atlanta win over San Francisco is “miracle”. The Saints appeared to respond to the chance to take over the #1 seed in the NFC with a crushing victory over the Colts. The Saints stats are not to the level of New England, San Francisco, or Baltimore statistically, but they have been using a second string QB for a good part of the year.

As far as Dallas goes, the phrase most commonly heard is “Where has this team been all season?” The Week 16 clash between Dallas and Philadelphia will decide the conference leader.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       117     52.2      28.48        16.80     11.68

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.75


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     10.5    14  12   2   0  85.7  84.2  15.57  15.36  0.21
2     NE      15.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  87.9  11.98  13.64 -1.67
3     SF       9.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  79.1  11.84  11.50  0.34
4     GB       7.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  60.4   2.77   3.36 -0.58
5     NO       6.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  64.7   5.96   5.36  0.60
6     SEA      3.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  55.0   4.23   1.86  2.37
7     MIN     11.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  73.9   6.99   8.50 -1.51
8     BUF      7.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  67.8   2.87   4.93 -2.06
9     KC       6.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  71.1   8.02   7.86  0.17
10    HOU      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  52.2   1.23   0.79  0.44
11    LA       5.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.6   4.13   1.86  2.28
12    PIT      3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  52.6   1.57   0.71  0.85
13    TEN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  63.1   2.47   4.29 -1.81
14    DAL      3.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  67.8   5.07   6.43 -1.36
15    TB       1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  53.0   1.21   1.29 -0.08
16    PHI      1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.2  -1.08   0.43 -1.51
17    CHI      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  50.8  -0.66   0.21 -0.88
18    IND     -2.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  44.4  -2.59  -1.86 -0.73
19    OAK     -3.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  28.1  -8.48  -8.00 -0.48
20    CLE     -4.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  43.0  -0.89  -2.29  1.39
21    DEN     -2.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  38.4  -2.51  -3.21  0.71
22    LAC     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  52.1  -0.84   0.64 -1.48
23    CAR     -4.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  37.5  -3.84  -4.71  0.87
24    ATL     -5.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  42.9  -0.53  -2.57  2.04
25    JAX     -7.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  27.9  -8.21  -7.36 -0.86
26    NYJ    -11.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  28.9  -8.54  -6.86 -1.69
27    ARI     -4.5    14   4   9   1  32.1  33.5  -4.09  -6.29  2.19
28    DET     -4.0    14   3  10   1  25.0  36.3  -5.05  -4.93 -0.12
29    NYG     -6.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  30.5  -7.55  -7.07 -0.48
30    WAS    -10.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  21.2  -9.44  -9.43 -0.01
31    MIA    -14.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  16.5 -13.83 -13.86  0.03
32    CIN     -7.5    14   1  13   0   7.1  18.9  -7.78 -10.57  2.79

I guess the question of the week after the Chiefs – Patriots game is: have the refs always been this bad or are they steadily getting worse? The other standing question is, are the Ravens as good as their stats say they are? We probably won’t know till the playoffs kick off.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       110     52.9      28.24        16.80     11.44

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.69


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     SF      10.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  81.4  13.26  12.92  0.34
2     BAL      7.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  83.4  16.35  14.92  1.43
3     NE      14.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  86.7  11.83  13.08 -1.25
4     GB       7.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.0   2.28   3.00 -0.72
5     NO       6.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  60.0   3.90   3.69  0.20
6     SEA      3.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  54.1   4.40   1.54  2.86
7     MIN     10.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  69.6   5.01   6.92 -1.91
8     BUF      7.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  66.6   2.61   4.77 -2.16
9     KC       5.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  67.8   7.70   6.92  0.78
10    LA       7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  61.3   5.77   3.77  2.00
11    PIT      5.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  54.5   3.01   1.31  1.71
12    TEN      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  64.4   3.13   4.85 -1.72
13    HOU      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  51.7   1.10   0.62  0.48
14    CHI      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  53.1  -0.52   0.85 -1.37
15    TB      -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  49.5  -0.33  -0.23 -0.09
16    DAL     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  64.6   2.79   5.15 -2.37
17    IND     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  50.2  -0.90   0.08 -0.98
18    PHI     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  49.1  -1.78  -0.31 -1.47
19    OAK     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  28.1  -7.91  -8.31  0.40
20    CLE     -4.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  45.7   1.19  -1.38  2.57
21    DEN     -2.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  43.3  -1.30  -1.92  0.62
22    CAR     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  38.0  -4.60  -4.62  0.01
23    LAC     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  59.4   1.35   2.92 -1.57
24    NYJ     -8.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  31.6  -8.79  -5.77 -3.02
25    ATL     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  41.1  -2.57  -3.31  0.74
26    JAX     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  26.4  -8.35  -8.23 -0.12
27    DET     -4.0    13   3   9   1  26.9  39.8  -4.53  -3.69 -0.83
28    ARI     -6.0    13   3   9   1  26.9  29.8  -5.40  -7.85  2.44
29    WAS    -10.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  20.7  -9.72  -9.38 -0.34
30    MIA    -13.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  17.0 -12.79 -13.69  0.90
31    NYG     -7.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  26.4  -9.14  -8.85 -0.29
32    CIN     -7.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  20.9  -7.04  -9.77  2.73

Next Page »