Football


The best game I’ve seen all year was played Monday night. Not that there weren’t some incredible plays during the regular games, but Seattle – San Francisco was just amazing to watch. It was a fair offensive show and spectacular defensively. Seattle overall has been a below average defensive this year, but they came out to play on Monday. Speaking of coming out to play, kudos to the Atlanta Falcons for their defensive effort against the Saints.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
148        76     51.4      27.91        16.94     10.97

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.85


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      21.0     9   8   1   0  88.9  94.7  13.32  19.11 -5.79
2     SF      13.0     9   8   1   0  88.9  87.9  12.53  14.44 -1.91
3     GB       7.0    10   8   2   0  80.0  63.8   6.15   4.50  1.65
4     SEA      2.5    10   8   2   0  80.0  55.6   3.03   2.10  0.93
5     BAL      6.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  78.8  10.44  12.33 -1.90
6     NO       6.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  58.0   2.90   2.44  0.45
7     MIN     11.0    10   7   3   0  70.0  73.8   6.83   8.00 -1.17
8     BUF      4.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  60.4  -2.67   2.67 -5.34
9     HOU      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  65.2   5.39   5.22  0.17
10    KC       3.5    10   6   4   0  60.0  62.0   6.73   4.50  2.23
11    DAL     10.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  75.2   4.29   9.00 -4.71
12    CAR      6.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  49.1   1.87  -0.33  2.20
13    PHI      5.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  53.6  -0.52   1.22 -1.75
14    LA       3.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  61.7   4.43   3.89  0.54
15    OAK      2.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  40.0  -1.04  -3.56  2.51
16    IND      2.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  50.4  -0.78   0.11 -0.89
17    PIT      2.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  54.6   3.34   1.33  2.00
18    TEN      0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  52.1  -0.02   0.60 -0.62
19    JAX     -1.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  44.9  -1.56  -1.44 -0.12
20    CHI     -1.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  52.2   0.63   0.56  0.08
21    LAC     -2.5    10   4   6   0  40.0  54.6   0.76   1.30 -0.54
22    DET     -1.0     9   3   5   1  38.9  43.8  -1.68  -2.22  0.54
23    ARI     -3.0    10   3   6   1  35.0  33.8  -5.54  -5.90  0.36
24    DEN     -2.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  40.7  -1.40  -2.33  0.93
25    TB      -4.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  45.0  -0.79  -2.11  1.32
26    CLE     -5.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  32.5  -2.50  -5.56  3.05
27    ATL     -7.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  29.6  -5.81  -7.56  1.75
28    MIA    -13.0     9   2   7   0  22.2   9.0 -15.97 -16.56  0.58
29    NYJ    -14.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  15.2 -12.16 -12.00 -0.16
30    NYG    -10.5    10   2   8   0  20.0  26.8  -9.14  -8.60 -0.54
31    WAS    -10.0     9   1   8   0  11.1  11.8 -11.30 -12.33  1.03
32    CIN    -10.0     9   0   9   0   0.0  14.0  -9.73 -13.56  3.83

It was a slow week for me, with Dallas having the Monday night game and otherwise being busy over the weekend. So I saw bits of New England’s game and bits of the Dallas game. Mohamed Sanu looked good in his new home and Golden Tate’s catch was pretty spectacular.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
135        68     50.4      28.00        16.73     11.27

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.36


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     SF      13.5     8   8   0   0 100.0  94.3  14.56  16.62 -2.07
2     NE      21.0     9   8   1   0  88.9  96.8  12.01  19.11 -7.10
3     NO       6.5     8   7   1   0  87.5  67.9   6.46   4.88  1.59
4     GB       7.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  64.6   5.88   4.11  1.77
5     SEA      2.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  56.3   1.71   2.00 -0.29
6     BAL      6.0     8   6   2   0  75.0  76.7   7.88   9.38 -1.49
7     BUF      5.5     8   6   2   0  75.0  65.2  -3.03   3.38 -6.41
8     MIN     12.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  78.9   6.51   8.44 -1.93
9     KC       4.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  67.0   7.98   5.33  2.65
10    HOU      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  67.7   6.15   5.22  0.93
11    DAL     14.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  82.9   4.36  10.62 -6.27
12    CAR      6.5     8   5   3   0  62.5  52.0   3.17   0.62  2.55
13    LA       5.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  66.7   5.77   5.00  0.77
14    IND      2.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  52.3   1.30   0.62  0.67
15    PHI      5.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  54.2  -1.18   1.22 -2.40
16    OAK      0.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  36.0  -0.99  -4.25  3.26
17    PIT      0.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  53.4   2.28   0.88  1.40
18    JAX     -1.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  44.0  -0.82  -1.44  0.62
19    TEN     -2.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  51.5  -0.94   0.33 -1.27
20    LAC     -3.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  57.1   0.96   1.67 -0.71
21    DET     -0.5     8   3   4   1  43.8  44.8  -0.90  -1.62  0.73
22    ARI     -3.0     9   3   5   1  38.9  30.0  -5.32  -6.22  0.90
23    CHI     -2.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  48.8   0.35  -0.25  0.60
24    DEN     -2.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  39.1  -1.19  -2.33  1.14
25    TB      -5.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  42.4   0.49  -2.75  3.24
26    CLE     -6.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  26.8  -3.44  -6.62  3.19
27    NYG    -14.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  22.3  -8.02  -8.78  0.76
28    ATL    -10.5     8   1   7   0  12.5  19.8  -8.87 -10.62  1.75
29    NYJ    -15.0     8   1   7   0  12.5   6.6 -14.30 -14.38  0.08
30    MIA    -16.5     8   1   7   0  12.5   4.5 -19.31 -19.12 -0.18
31    WAS    -10.0     9   1   8   0  11.1   8.5 -11.64 -12.33  0.69
32    CIN     -8.0     8   0   8   0   0.0  14.5  -7.87 -10.75  2.88

Games this week were more evolutionary than revolutionary. Philadelphia came back and beat the Bills, New York played hard but couldn’t quite catch up to the Lions, Green Bay beat almost everyone’s favorites, the Kansas City Chiefs. The rich got richer, as New England picked up Mohamed Sanu from the Falcons.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
121        57     47.1      27.91        16.50     11.41

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.29


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      23.5     8   8   0   0 100.0  99.0  15.59  23.62 -8.04
2     SF      14.0     7   7   0   0 100.0  96.3  17.21  18.57 -1.36
3     GB       7.0     8   7   1   0  87.5  71.3   8.52   6.50  2.02
4     NO       6.5     8   7   1   0  87.5  67.6   6.11   4.88  1.24
5     MIN     14.0     8   6   2   0  75.0  82.4   7.48   9.88 -2.39
6     SEA      1.5     8   6   2   0  75.0  54.9   0.02   1.50 -1.48
7     BAL      6.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  73.9   3.71   8.29 -4.58
8     BUF      4.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  57.7  -3.11   1.71 -4.82
9     IND      2.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  53.7   0.33   1.00 -0.67
10    LA       5.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  66.4   5.85   5.00  0.85
11    KC       4.5     8   5   3   0  62.5  67.5   7.32   5.62  1.69
12    HOU      2.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  59.8   3.45   3.00  0.45
13    DAL     10.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  80.3   4.33   9.43 -5.10
14    CAR      6.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  47.7   2.51  -0.71  3.22
15    PHI      1.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  51.2  -1.32   0.38 -1.69
16    JAX      0.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  54.9   1.01   1.25 -0.24
17    TEN      0.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  57.5  -0.35   1.62 -1.97
18    DET      0.0     7   3   3   1  50.0  47.3  -0.11  -0.86  0.75
19    ARI     -3.0     8   3   4   1  43.8  29.1  -8.19  -6.62 -1.57
20    CHI     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  53.9   1.83   0.86  0.98
21    PIT     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  52.8   1.34   0.71  0.62
22    OAK     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  31.2  -1.93  -5.86  3.93
23    LAC     -3.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  50.0  -2.07   0.00 -2.07
24    TB      -4.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  43.6   1.61  -2.29  3.90
25    CLE     -7.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  26.6  -2.43  -6.86  4.42
26    DEN     -2.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  34.9  -1.42  -3.25  1.83
27    NYG    -10.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  25.8  -6.53  -7.50  0.97
28    NYJ    -16.0     7   1   6   0  14.3   5.5 -11.05 -15.29  4.24
29    WAS    -10.0     8   1   7   0  12.5   9.7  -9.87 -12.00  2.13
30    ATL    -10.5     8   1   7   0  12.5  20.3  -9.72 -10.62  0.91
31    CIN     -8.0     8   0   8   0   0.0  15.0  -8.52 -10.75  2.23
32    MIA    -20.0     7   0   7   0   0.0   2.4 -21.58 -23.00  1.42

A much easier week to take than before, though Atlanta fans are going through a serious crisis at the moment. The head coach, a defensive expert, took over the defense this year and it is horrible. So local talk is about who is going to be let go at the end of the year and why. I’m not as sure the HC is the cause here. Thomas Dimitroff, as far as I recall, has never drafted a successful defensive end, and his track record on the OL is not good as well. So, who will be running the Falcons in 2020? It’s anyone’s guess.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
106        46     43.4      27.95        16.55     11.41

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.12


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      26.0     7   7   0   0 100.0  99.2  16.14  25.00 -8.86
2     SF      13.5     6   6   0   0 100.0  94.2  13.45  15.33 -1.89
3     GB       7.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  70.6   6.97   6.43  0.54
4     NO       6.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  58.5   5.52   2.43  3.09
5     BUF      5.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  70.9  -0.62   5.00 -5.62
6     MIN     16.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  80.0   7.76   9.86 -2.10
7     BAL      6.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  72.8   4.06   8.29 -4.22
8     KC       5.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  71.7   8.27   7.43  0.84
9     SEA      1.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  52.2   0.80   0.71  0.08
10    CAR      6.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  66.6   7.77   5.50  2.27
11    IND      2.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  52.8   0.17   0.83 -0.66
12    DAL     10.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  79.1   3.03   9.43 -6.40
13    LA       3.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  61.3   6.22   3.71  2.50
14    HOU      1.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  59.3   4.47   3.00  1.47
15    ARI      0.0     7   3   3   1  50.0  36.6  -6.14  -4.43 -1.71
16    CHI     -0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  55.0   1.81   1.17  0.65
17    OAK     -7.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  30.6  -2.45  -6.33  3.88
18    JAX     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  47.9   1.59  -0.57  2.16
19    TEN     -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  56.0  -1.18   1.29 -2.46
20    PHI     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  43.5  -4.42  -2.14 -2.28
21    DET     -0.5     6   2   3   1  41.7  44.5  -0.24  -1.83  1.59
22    PIT     -2.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  45.1   2.58  -1.33  3.92
23    TB      -4.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  44.8   3.76  -2.00  5.76
24    CLE     -5.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  31.5  -3.62  -5.67  2.05
25    DEN     -2.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  35.3  -1.70  -3.43  1.73
26    LAC     -3.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  49.4  -2.90  -0.14 -2.76
27    NYG    -14.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  25.2  -6.19  -7.86  1.67
28    NYJ    -18.0     6   1   5   0  16.7   5.6 -11.06 -15.50  4.44
29    WAS    -10.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  11.0 -12.23 -12.29  0.06
30    ATL    -14.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  20.7 -10.16 -11.14  0.98
31    CIN     -6.0     7   0   7   0   0.0  17.8  -8.04 -10.29  2.24
32    MIA    -22.5     6   0   6   0   0.0   2.3 -23.42 -24.67  1.25

Jalen Ramsay was traded from the Jaguars to the Rams for 1 2020 first round pick, a 2021 first round pick and a 4th round pick. The Rams have been a top 5 team the past couple years, so assuming the first rounders come out about 28th is reasonable. That would give the Jags two picks of approximate value 26 by the PFR charts. The fourth rounder, which we can estimate as pick 160 or so, is worth about 8 AV. This sums to about 60 AV.

So, the cost of the trade is very much close to that of Laremy Tunsil. And it will be interesting how these mid risk trades play out. The teams haven’t invested 90 or 100 AV in this venture. So will it work?

Jalen has averaged about 11 AV in his three seasons, and about 12 AV in his last two. Should he average 12 for the next five years (the Rams would have to resign him to make this work), then the trade breaks even.

It was news when it happened. Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills were traded for Johnson Bademosi and Julia’n Davenport and a bundle of picks. We have done extensive analysis of draft trades using approximate value calculations. So how does the Laremy Tunsil trade rack up in the AV department?

Miami received 2 first round draft picks, one in 2020 and one in 2021. They also received a 2021 second round draft pick. As these have not been consumed, we can’t be precise about their value, but the Texans tend to be a second tier playoff team. There are 16 playoff teams, so valuing the first rounds at around 22 and the second rounder as 54 would put us into the right ball park.

Miami is likely to be dreadful for the next couple years so the 2020 fourth we can value around 130 and the sixth rounder about slot 200.

 

Laremy Tunsil Trade
Houston Texans Miami Dolphins Results
Pick Average AV Pick Average AV Delta AV Risk Ratio
130 7 22 27
200 7 22 27
54 21
Total 14 Total 75
62 5.36

 

Because the chart does not include the people involved in the trade, the risk ratio is actually meaningless in this context. The real issue are the 62 AV given up for Laremy and Stills and whether they would be able to recover that value.

Laremy has averaged 6 or 7 AV so far in his first three seasons, so that’s not really all that helpful. We will look instead at the career of Andrew Whitworth of the LA Rams. In his first 11 years he totalled 104 AV, so a good left tackle can rack up, say, 10 AV a season (this would be about a 30% increase in productivity for Laremy). Laremy is going to have to do it for 6 seasons for the trade to break even.

Looking at Kenny Stills, he was used a lot in certain years with New Orleans and Miami, but he’s not young and he’s not being used much. If he could average 5 AV for 5 more season, he would be a substantial boost to the value of the trade, but I suspect he’s not going to be with Houston for long.

Update: overvalued the Texans picks in the first iteration of this article. That has been corrected.

There are still house repairs ongoing, so not the time or place to really relax and digest the season. But it feels like a funny season. Perhaps it’s just that Dallas and Atlanta, the two NFL teams I follow most, are marked underperformers at this time. Or perhaps it’s just that outside of Seattle, we’ve seen the death of the Cover 1/Cover 3 defenses.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
92         41     44.6      27.49        16.64     10.85

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.97


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      23.5     6   6   0   0 100.0  98.4  14.22  23.67 -9.45
2     SF      14.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  92.2  16.85  16.60  0.25
3     GB       6.0     6   5   1   0  83.3  65.2   6.30   4.50  1.80
4     NO       4.0     6   5   1   0  83.3  53.6   3.86   1.00  2.86
5     SEA      1.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  59.0   2.26   3.17 -0.90
6     BUF      4.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  67.9   2.07   4.00 -1.93
7     MIN     17.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  80.6   8.55   9.50 -0.95
8     CAR      6.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  65.9   7.85   5.50  2.35
9     BAL      4.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  69.3   1.14   7.33 -6.20
10    KC       4.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  62.9   5.98   4.67  1.31
11    HOU      4.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  63.7   6.17   4.67  1.51
12    OAK      3.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  37.1  -0.40  -4.00  3.60
13    IND      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  48.7  -1.41  -0.40 -1.01
14    CHI      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  66.6   3.51   3.60 -0.09
15    DAL      4.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  70.6  -2.05   6.50 -8.55
16    PHI      1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  55.7  -1.08   2.00 -3.08
17    LA       1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  49.5   5.09  -0.17  5.25
18    DET      0.0     5   2   2   1  50.0  50.6   0.52   0.20  0.32
19    ARI     -3.0     6   2   3   1  41.7  32.6  -6.68  -6.17 -0.52
20    DEN     -2.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  50.0   1.37   0.00  1.37
21    PIT     -2.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  45.3   2.72  -1.33  4.05
22    TB      -4.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  45.0   3.84  -2.00  5.84
23    JAX     -4.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  41.7   1.85  -2.33  4.18
24    TEN     -4.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  54.7  -0.14   1.00 -1.14
25    LAC     -5.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  51.2  -2.90   0.33 -3.23
26    CLE     -5.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  32.3  -3.13  -5.67  2.53
27    NYG    -16.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  25.2  -6.44  -8.17  1.73
28    NYJ    -16.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  12.0  -9.99 -12.00  2.01
29    ATL     -8.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  27.8  -7.60  -8.50  0.90
30    WAS    -13.0     6   1   5   0  16.7  13.7 -16.27 -12.83 -3.44
31    CIN     -5.0     6   0   6   0   0.0  18.7  -7.27 -10.33  3.06
32    MIA    -25.0     5   0   5   0   0.0   1.3 -28.77 -27.60 -1.17

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