2023 NFL Super Bowl, Formula + SRS odds

In the championship game are the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City. Kansas City had to beat the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC, whereas the 49ers were favored throughout. The game with Detroit was close. Had Detroit been able to hang on, it would have been their first Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Kansas City Chiefs	0.195	0.549	1.4

While the Formula sees a very close game, SRS gives the 49ers a substantial advantage.

Super Bowl Odds SRS Based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Kansas City Chiefs	1.014	0.734	7.5

 

2023 Conference Round Playoff Worksheet. Formula + SRS.

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here. 

Really there was only one upset, Kansas City over Buffalo, but Green Bay played well above its rankings and nearly beat San Francisco. We have calculated playoff odds for the two conference games, both with our playoff formula and also using Simple Rankings. The results are similar.

2023 Conference Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Detroit Lions	1.411	0.804	10.4
Baltimore Ravens	Kansas City Chiefs	1.269	0.781	9.4

The block below calculates odds via Simple Rankings. To add a HFA, add 3 points to the home team.

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2023 Conference Round Playoff Odds SRS based.
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Detroit Lions	1.011	0.733	7.5
Baltimore Ravens	Kansas City Chiefs	1.273	0.782	9.4

 

2023 Second Round Worksheet. Formula + SRS

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here. 

Three upsets framed the Wild Card week. The first by Houston over Cleveland, the second Green Bay over Dallas, and the third the Tampa Bay Bucs over Philadelphia. The Green Bay performance was so dominant that no Packers QB in history, in games where DVOA can be calculated, had a game as good as Jordan Love’s last Sunday. That said, both my formulas and SRS predict substantive wins by the #1 seeds and close games otherwise.

2023 Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	1.010	0.733	7.5
Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Bucs	0.11	0.527	0.8
Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	2.079	0.889	15.4
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	0.359	0.589	2.7

The odds above are based on my formula, the ones below on raw Simple Rankings, with no HFA adjustment.

2023 Second Round Playoff Odds SRS based.
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	1.432	0.807	10.6
Detroit Lions	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.432	0.606	3.2
Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	1.716	0.848	12.7
Buffalo Bills	Kansas City Chiefs	0.365	0.590	2.7

 

2023 Season Playoff Worksheet. First Round Odds. Formula + SRS.

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here. 

The teams most favored via the playoff formula are Baltimore and San Francisco. As these teams have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, this will not change. Particularly disliked by the playoff formulas are Dallas, Buffalo and Miami. We will also be presenting odds obtained by SRS. Note the SRS odds do not include a home field advantage. If you wish to handle that, add three points to the Home Team’s point spread..

(PX within 2 years) Logit P = 0.660 + 0.304(SOS) + 0.747(PPX)

2022 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	SF 49ers	0.660	0.747	0.040	1.447
2	Dallas Cowboys	0.660	0.747	-0.757	0.650
3	Detroit Lions	0.660	0.0	0.036	0.696
4	Tampa Bay Bucs	0.660	0.747	-0.161	1.246
5	Philadelphia Eagles	0.0	0.747	-0.210	0.537
6	LA Rams	0.0	0.747	0.353	1.100
7	Green Bay Packers	0.0	0.747	-0.310	0.437
AFC
1	Baltimore Ravens	0.660	0.747	0.456	1.863
2	Buffalo Bills	0.660	0.747	-0.456	0.951
3	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	-0.155	1.252
4	Houston Texans	0.660	0.000	-0.216	0.444
5	Cleveland Browns	0.0	0.0	0.483	0.483
6	Miami Dolphins	0.0	0.747	-0.456	0.291
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.0	0.747	0.651	1.398

Using the data above, we can calculate playoff odds for the first round. As this is a simple static model, it will not yield the same odds as a model based on offensive stats.

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	0.259	0.564	1.9
Detroit Lions	LA Rams	-0.404	0.400	-3.0
Tampa Bay Bucs	Philadelphia Eagles	0.709	0.670	5.2
Buffalo Bills	Pittsburgh Steelers	-0.447	-0.390	-3.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	0.961	0.723	7.1
Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	-0.039	0.490	0.3

The following odds are calculated with Simple Rankings. These will more closely follow formulas using DVOA or other scoring stats.

First Round Playoff Odds SRS based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	1.081	0.747	8.0
Detroit Lions	LA Rams	0.169	0.542	1.3
Tampa Bay Bucs	Philadelphia Eagles	0.165	0.541	1.2
Buffalo Bills	Pittsburgh Steelers	0.781	0.686	5.8
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	-0.095	0.476	-0.7
Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	0.391	0.403	-2.9

Ideas to consider: are the Cleveland Browns a team with previous playoff experience? They played in the playoffs in 2020. If so, their ranking by my formula should be 1.23 instead, one of the highest of the wild card teams.

 

2022 NFL Super Bowl, Formula + SRS Odds

The methodology of these calculations are given here.

In both the Formula and SRS, Philadelphia is preferred. The difference in the Formula is so small that you can assume ‘pick ’em’. Philadelphia is favored by around 3 points using offensive stats.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	Kansas City Chiefs	0.091	0.52	0.7

By the time you reach the Super Bowl, my formula reduces from a 3 component formula to a 2 component system. There is no home field advantage in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds SRS Based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	Kansas City Chiefs	0.453	0.611	3.4

Just a note. I’ve had plenty of fun in the run up to the Super Bowl reading Scott Kacsmar. He has some unique points of view, well worth reading.

 

2022 Conference Championships. Formula + SRS Odds

I thought the second round playoff games were pretty entertaining, with the possible exception of the Philadelphia – New York game, and even in that one, nice to see Jalen Hurts back to early season form. Most of the indicators for the Conference round suggest close games, with the exception of the Formula’s prediction of PHI-SF, which punishes SF for their weak schedule. Otherwise, everything else is close.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	SF 49ers	0.948/td>	0.721	7.0
Kansas City Chiefs	Cincinnati Bengals	0.049	0.51	0.4

For the SRS based games, I used the whole season with the exception of Philadelphia. I used the weeks 1-14 in that case, as the last four games were not representative of a Jalen Hurts led team. All of these predictions are less than 3 points, and so are effectively pick ’em games.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds SRS based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	SF 49ers	0.176	0.54	1.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Cincinnati Bengals	-0.01	0.50	-0.5

 

2022 Second Round Playoff Odds. Formula + SRS based.

The methodology of these calculations are given here.

I can say the playoff games I watched were interesting. Coming back after throwing 4 ints pretty much shows that Trevor Lawrence is hardly mediocre. It takes skill to do what he did. Congrats to the Giants, whose win, along with Dallas, says that three of the best 4 teams in the NFC were in the NFC East.

Unlike the previous data sets, the second round data are a lot more consistent. I don’t think there are very many surprises here. Home teams are favored throughout, though both my playoff models suggest 49ers-Cowboys will be close.

2022 Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	New York Giants	1.005	0.732	7.4
SF 49ers	Dallas Cowboys	0.217	0.554	1.6
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.768	0.683	5.6
Buffalo Bills	Cincannati Bengals	0.548	0.634	4.3

The data above are based on the playoff formula, the data below are SRS based.

2022 Second Round Playoff Odds SRS based.
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Philadelphia Eagles	New York Giants/td>	0.904	0.712	6.7
SF 49ers	Dallas Cowboys	0.185	0.546	1.4
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.603	0.646	4.5
Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	0.581	0.641	4.3

 

2022 Season Playoff Worksheet. First Round Odds, Formula +SRS

The methodology of the playoff formulas are described here.

The teams most favored in the first rounds are Tampa Bay in the NFC and Cinncinnati in the AFC. As the formulas are simple and HFA a huge part of the formulas, their advantage will go away in the second round. San Francisco is peculiarly disliked by the formula as it played a very weak schedule. We’ll see if we can’t present some odds using Simple Ranking so there is a comparison

(PX within 2 years) Logit P = 0.660 + 0.304(SOS) + 0.747(PPX)

2022 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	Philadelphia Eagles	0.660	0.747	-0.353	1.054
2	SF 49ers	0.660	0.747	-0.641	0.766
3	Minnesota Vikings	0.660	0.0	0.085	0.745
4	Tampa Bay Bucs	0.660	0.747	0.164	1.571
5	Dallas Cowboys	0.0	0.747	-0.198	0.549
6	NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.049	0.049
7	Seattle Seahawks	0.0	0.747	0.167	0.914
AFC
1	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	-0.444	0.963
2	Buffalo Bills	0.660	0.747	0.085	1.492
3	Cinncinnati Bengals	0.660	0.747	0.167	1.574
4	Jacksonville Jags	0.660	0.000	0.195	0.855
5	LA Chargers	0.0	0.0	-0.474	-0.474
6	Baltimore Ravens	0.0	0.747	0.255	1.002
7	Miami Dolphins	0.0	0.0	0.526	0.526

Using the data above, we can calculate playoff odds for the first round. Note that at least three games are not the same as you might get with some kind of offensive stats.

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
SF 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	-0.148	0.463	-1.1
Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	0.696	0.667	5.2
Tampa Bay Bucs	Dallas Cowboys	1.022	0.736	7.6
Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	0.966	0.724	7.1
Cinncinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	0.572	0.639	4.2
Jacksonville Jags	LA Chargers	1.329	0.791	9.8

For comparison, we also calculated odds using a Simple Ranking. Pythagoreans might be a little more accurate, but the accuracy of any offensive stat isn’t high enough to be 90% statistically reliable. If it were, the guys who do these kinds of things would be telling you that.

First Round Playoff Odds SRS based
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
SF 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	1.130	0.756	8.4
Minnesota Vikings	New York Giants	0.039	0.510	0.3
Tampa Bay Bucs	Dallas Cowboys	-1.189	0.233	-8.8
Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	1.249	0.777	9.2
Cinncinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	0.493	0.621	3.6
Jacksonville Jags	LA Chargers	0.365	0.590	2.7

So there you have it. Odds per my formulas of 2016, odds via SRS, and I’m sure more curious sorts can find NFL playoff odds as established by sports books.

 

2019 Season Super Bowl prediction

The methodology for this prediction is here.

I managed to watch big chunks of both conference games. The Titans made a game of it for one half. They ran out of steam in the third quarter and ended up losing, but the team overall looked good. The Packers were crushed. The score doesn’t really show how bad the game actually was.

Last I read, Kansas City was favored by one point in the odds. My system favors them by a lot more, more like 5 points.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	0.683	0.66	5.1

 

2019 Season. Conference Championship Odds.

Conventional wisdom went 3-1 and my picks went 2-2; perhaps I would have done better if the Seahawks hadn’t suffered so many injuries at the end of the season. The Titans continue their upset ways while Green Bay, Kansas City, and San Francisco won as favorites.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	0.263	0.56	2.0
Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans	1.031	0.74	7.6