In terms of SRS, Buffalo is #1, Dallas is #2, Baltimore is #3, Philadelphia is #4, and Kansas City is #5. For those wanting an approximate representation of the value of a 53.0 percent HFA, go to Wolfram Alpha, and enter logit(0.530)*7.4. It’s about 0.89 points.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
164        87     53.0      26.43        17.00      9.43

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.12


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      8.5    10   9   1   0  90.0  75.6   6.36   8.00 -1.64
2     MIN      3.5    10   8   2   0  80.0  49.3   1.38  -0.20  1.58
3     KC       3.0    10   8   2   0  80.0  68.7   5.72   6.70 -0.98
4     DAL      9.5    10   7   3   0  70.0  78.1   8.57   8.40  0.17
5     BUF      6.0    10   7   3   0  70.0  81.7  11.71  10.70  1.01
6     TEN      5.5    10   7   3   0  70.0  53.3  -0.47   0.80 -1.27
7     BAL      4.0    10   7   3   0  70.0  66.5   6.97   4.90  2.07
8     MIA      3.5    10   7   3   0  70.0  53.5   3.72   1.10  2.62
9     NYG      3.5    10   7   3   0  70.0  50.4  -0.46   0.10 -0.56
10    SF      10.5    10   6   4   0  60.0  72.5   3.20   6.30 -3.10
11    CIN      5.5    10   6   4   0  60.0  65.7   5.44   5.00  0.44
12    NE       4.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  67.3   4.85   4.40  0.45
13    SEA      2.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  55.0  -0.87   1.60 -2.47
14    NYJ      2.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  55.2   4.01   1.30  2.71
15    WAS      1.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  46.8  -0.58  -0.82  0.24
16    TB       0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  51.3   0.20   0.30 -0.10
17    LAC     -0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  40.2  -4.02  -3.10 -0.92
18    ATL     -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  45.6  -2.97  -1.36 -1.61
19    IND     -1.0    11   4   6   1  40.9  32.1  -4.70  -4.27 -0.43
20    DET     -3.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  40.7  -1.29  -3.20  1.91
21    NO      -4.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  44.6  -2.97  -1.64 -1.33
22    GB      -5.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  36.0  -1.41  -3.73  2.32
23    ARI     -8.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  34.2  -5.89  -5.09 -0.80
24    CLE     -2.5    10   3   7   0  30.0  41.2  -0.79  -2.90  2.11
25    DEN     -3.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  38.4  -4.63  -2.40 -2.23
26    LV      -3.5    10   3   7   0  30.0  44.3  -4.83  -1.70 -3.13
27    PIT     -5.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  24.5  -3.60  -7.40  3.80
28    JAX     -6.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  54.1  -0.96   1.10 -2.06
29    LA      -8.5    10   3   7   0  30.0  28.1  -5.48  -5.90  0.42
30    CHI     -3.0    11   3   8   0  27.3  40.1  -2.43  -3.00  0.57
31    CAR     -3.0    11   3   8   0  27.3  34.0  -4.98  -4.45 -0.52
32    HOU     -7.5    10   1   8   1  15.0  24.0  -8.77  -7.10 -1.67
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A bunch of the top 5 teams lost, and for now, the only team with a SRS over 10 is Buffalo. Second is Philadelphia with a SRS over 7.6, and the Ravens with a SRS of 7.4. KC is fourth and Dallas is fifth. The Bengals are sixth, Minnesota is seventh and the Jets are eighth. How long has it been since the Jets were last a top 10 team?

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
150        82     54.7      26.41        17.12      9.29

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.20


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      9.0     9   8   1   0  88.9  77.5   7.63   8.78 -1.15
2     MIN      4.0     9   8   1   0  88.9  63.1   5.25   3.89  1.36
3     NYG      4.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  56.2   0.81   1.56 -0.74
4     KC       3.0     9   7   2   0  77.8  70.4   6.10   7.11 -1.01
5     MIA      3.5    10   7   3   0  70.0  53.6   4.12   1.10  3.02
6     DAL      7.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  69.1   5.50   5.22  0.28
7     BUF      4.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  83.4  12.89  11.00  1.89
8     TEN      4.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  49.0  -1.53  -0.22 -1.31
9     BAL      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  64.1   7.42   4.33  3.09
10    NYJ      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  58.5   4.89   2.22  2.67
11    SEA      2.0    10   6   4   0  60.0  55.1  -0.82   1.60 -2.42
12    SF       6.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  65.1   0.97   3.89 -2.92
13    CIN      4.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  66.1   5.32   4.78  0.54
14    NE       3.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  65.6   4.15   4.11  0.04
15    LAC      2.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  39.7  -5.18  -3.11 -2.07
16    TB       0.5    10   5   5   0  50.0  51.3  -0.00   0.30 -0.30
17    WAS     -1.0    10   5   5   0  50.0  41.4  -0.97  -2.20  1.23
18    IND     -0.5    10   4   5   1  45.0  30.5  -6.06  -4.60 -1.46
19    ATL     -2.0    10   4   6   0  40.0  44.1  -3.80  -1.80 -2.00
20    GB      -3.5    10   4   6   0  40.0  37.9  -0.31  -3.10  2.79
21    ARI     -5.5    10   4   6   0  40.0  40.9  -3.51  -2.80 -0.71
22    CLE     -2.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  42.7  -1.44  -2.33  0.90
23    DET     -3.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  35.5  -2.51  -5.00  2.49
24    DEN     -3.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  39.8  -4.54  -2.00 -2.54
25    PIT     -4.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  22.2  -3.60  -7.44  3.85
26    LA     -10.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  27.6  -5.31  -5.78  0.47
27    CAR     -3.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  36.4  -5.27  -3.90 -1.37
28    CHI     -4.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  39.8  -2.14  -3.00  0.86
29    NO      -6.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  41.5  -2.96  -2.50 -0.46
30    JAX     -6.0    10   3   7   0  30.0  54.2  -1.13   1.10 -2.23
31    LV      -5.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  41.5  -5.58  -2.56 -3.02
32    HOU     -7.0     9   1   7   1  16.7  25.9  -8.41  -6.44 -1.97

The order of the first two teams, rated by SRS, has not changed, though Buffalo is down to a mere 13 SRS. Baltimore is third, Dallas is fourth, and fifth is Kansas City. Other notable teams include Cincinnati, New York Jets, and New England. The two worst in terms of SRS are the Colts and the Texans.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
136        73     53.7      26.38        16.95      9.43

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.08


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI     10.5     8   8   0   0 100.0  82.8   9.36  11.25 -1.89
2     MIN      5.5     8   7   1   0  87.5  63.6   3.22   4.00 -0.78
3     DAL      9.5     8   6   2   0  75.0  72.8   6.50   6.25  0.25
4     BUF      7.0     8   6   2   0  75.0  87.2  13.62  12.75  0.87
5     NYG      3.5     8   6   2   0  75.0  52.9   0.78   0.75  0.03
6     KC       3.0     8   6   2   0  75.0  68.4   5.83   6.75 -0.92
7     SEA      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  57.0   0.09   2.33 -2.24
8     BAL      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  63.6   7.55   4.33  3.22
9     MIA      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  46.1   1.81  -1.22  3.03
10    NYJ      3.0     9   6   3   0  66.7  58.2   4.71   2.22  2.49
11    TEN      3.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  45.5  -2.45  -1.12 -1.33
12    LAC      2.5     8   5   3   0  62.5  41.4  -4.33  -2.75 -1.58
13    CIN      4.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  65.6   5.61   4.78  0.83
14    NE       3.0     9   5   4   0  55.6  65.0   3.53   4.11 -0.59
15    SF       7.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  63.5   1.68   3.62 -1.95
16    ATL     -1.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  47.2  -1.72  -0.89 -0.84
17    TB      -2.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  49.1  -0.19  -0.22  0.03
18    WAS     -3.0     9   4   5   0  44.4  35.9  -3.62  -3.67  0.05
19    IND     -1.0     9   3   5   1  38.9  26.8  -7.11  -5.67 -1.44
20    CLE     -1.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  50.4   0.74   0.12  0.61
21    DEN     -2.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  43.3  -3.73  -1.38 -2.35
22    LA      -7.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  29.8  -3.76  -5.25  1.49
23    NO      -4.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  44.8  -1.64  -1.67  0.03
24    CHI     -5.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  39.1  -2.83  -3.22  0.39
25    GB      -5.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  35.1  -2.02  -3.78  1.76
26    JAX     -6.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  58.5  -0.86   2.33 -3.20
27    ARI     -8.0     9   3   6   0  33.3  37.1  -3.91  -4.22  0.31
28    DET     -3.5     8   2   6   0  25.0  33.8  -3.39  -5.75  2.36
29    LV      -3.5     8   2   6   0  25.0  42.8  -4.68  -2.25 -2.43
30    PIT     -5.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  17.9  -4.73  -9.62  4.90
31    CAR     -3.0     9   2   7   0  22.2  32.2  -5.71  -5.44 -0.27
32    HOU     -7.0     8   1   6   1  18.8  27.2  -8.33  -6.25 -2.08

In Week 8, Buffalo and Ohiladelphia are once again 1 and 2 in SRS, with Kansas City third. Dallas ranks 4th with Baltimore having almost an identical SRS. Amomg teams with 4 wins Cincinnati and San Francisco lead, and at three wins, Tampa Bay is the best, in terms of SRS.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
123        66     53.7      26.50        16.98      9.52

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.06


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      9.0     7   7   0   0 100.0  82.5  10.09  11.14 -1.06
2     BUF     10.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  90.3  15.36  15.00  0.36
3     MIN      7.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  63.7   3.98   4.14 -0.17
4     DAL      9.5     8   6   2   0  75.0  72.6   6.26   6.25  0.01
5     NYG      3.5     8   6   2   0  75.0  52.9   0.72   0.75 -0.03
6     TEN      4.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  46.6  -2.60  -0.86 -1.74
7     KC       3.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  68.9   7.45   7.29  0.17
8     MIA      3.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  44.2   1.07  -1.75  2.82
9     BAL      2.5     8   5   3   0  62.5  59.7   6.21   3.12  3.09
10    NYJ      2.5     8   5   3   0  62.5  57.7   2.30   2.12  0.17
11    SEA      2.0     8   5   3   0  62.5  54.1  -0.43   1.38 -1.80
12    LAC      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  39.3  -5.15  -3.57 -1.58
13    SF       7.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  63.4   2.32   3.62 -1.31
14    ATL      1.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  48.1  -0.76  -0.62 -0.14
15    CIN      1.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  59.5   3.89   2.75  1.14
16    NE       0.0     8   4   4   0  50.0  56.3   1.07   1.75 -0.68
17    WAS     -1.5     8   4   4   0  50.0  35.7  -4.07  -3.75 -0.32
18    IND     -0.5     8   3   4   1  43.8  35.4  -5.63  -3.50 -2.13
19    LA     -12.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  29.4  -2.80  -5.57  2.77
20    CLE     -1.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  50.4  -0.09   0.12 -0.21
21    TB      -2.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  47.4   0.37  -0.62  1.00
22    DEN     -2.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  43.4  -3.95  -1.38 -2.58
23    NO      -3.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  49.6  -0.49  -0.12 -0.37
24    GB      -3.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  36.8  -1.44  -3.50  2.06
25    ARI     -5.5     8   3   5   0  37.5  39.2  -2.24  -3.50  1.26
26    CHI     -6.0     8   3   5   0  37.5  38.4  -3.28  -3.25 -0.03
27    LV      -2.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  45.0  -3.87  -1.57 -2.29
28    CAR     -3.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  37.8  -3.87  -3.50 -0.37
29    PIT     -5.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  18.0  -5.37  -9.62  4.26
30    JAX     -6.0     8   2   6   0  25.0  56.5  -1.09   1.75 -2.84
31    HOU     -7.0     7   1   5   1  21.4  29.6  -9.08  -5.43 -3.65
32    DET     -4.0     7   1   6   0  14.3  30.9  -4.86  -7.43  2.57

The Bears and Patriots had a pretty surprising game. The Bears have lost couple games by a smidgen it seems and the win against the Pats can be seen as a breakthrough. In terms of the SRS leaders, Buffalo still leads. Philadelphia is now in second place. Rounding out third place is Kansas City.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
108        58     53.7      26.19        16.85      9.33

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.90


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      8.5     6   6   0   0 100.0  77.5   8.52   9.33 -0.81
2     NYG      4.0     7   6   1   0  85.7  60.2   3.27   2.86  0.41
3     BUF     12.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  90.5  17.65  15.83  1.82
4     MIN      5.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  61.7   2.80   3.50 -0.70
5     DAL      7.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  67.6   5.14   4.29  0.86
6     NYJ      4.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  60.6   3.43   3.14  0.28
7     KC       3.0     7   5   2   0  71.4  68.0   7.94   7.29  0.65
8     TEN      3.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  42.3  -0.93  -2.17  1.24
9     CIN      4.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  68.7   6.95   5.86  1.09
10    BAL      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  58.4   7.17   2.86  4.32
11    LAC      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  39.9  -5.25  -3.57 -1.68
12    MIA      2.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  41.7   2.28  -2.57  4.85
13    SEA      1.0     7   4   3   0  57.1  48.8  -4.06  -0.43 -3.63
14    IND      0.0     7   3   3   1  50.0  34.9  -4.66  -3.86 -0.81
15    LA      -4.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  36.4  -1.44  -3.67  2.23
16    ATL     -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  46.5  -2.09  -1.14 -0.95
17    SF      -1.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  56.2   0.11   1.71 -1.61
18    GB      -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  40.6  -2.17  -2.57  0.41
19    TB      -2.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  50.0  -0.62   0.00 -0.62
20    ARI     -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  41.3  -2.60  -2.86  0.26
21    NE      -3.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  54.3   0.03   1.29 -1.25
22    WAS     -4.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  34.5  -4.08  -4.43  0.35
23    CHI     -5.0     7   3   4   0  42.9  46.6  -1.99  -0.86 -1.13
24    LV      -1.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  56.0  -0.08   2.17 -2.25
25    CLE     -2.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  42.7  -3.38  -2.57 -0.81
26    CAR     -3.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  37.0  -4.84  -3.57 -1.27
27    DEN     -3.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  40.0  -4.77  -2.14 -2.63
28    NO      -4.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  40.4  -4.21  -3.57 -0.64
29    PIT     -4.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  23.1  -4.09  -7.86  3.76
30    JAX     -6.0     7   2   5   0  28.6  58.9   0.46   2.57 -2.11
31    HOU     -5.0     6   1   4   1  25.0  32.2  -7.88  -5.17 -2.72
32    DET     -3.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  30.5  -6.61  -8.00  1.39

There has been some shuffling in the top three in Simple Rankings. Buffalo is first, with a SRS roughly the same as the 2007 New England Patriots (i.e. historic). Baltimore is second at around 9 points of SRS. Philadelphia is the new third place team, with about 8 points of SRS. To remind people, SRS is a MOV based stat with a strength of schedule component, normalized so that 0 is the league average. Positive values mean the team is better than average and negative scores represent a lesser than average contribution.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
94         49     52.1      25.89        16.95      8.95

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.37


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      8.5     6   6   0   0 100.0  73.3   8.01   9.33 -1.33
2     BUF     12.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  86.2  17.56  15.83  1.72
3     MIN      5.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  59.6   3.06   3.50 -0.44
4     NYG      3.5     6   5   1   0  83.3  56.9   1.46   2.33 -0.87
5     DAL      5.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  56.8   3.89   2.00  1.89
6     NYJ      2.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  56.5   4.58   2.50  2.08
7     LAC      2.5     6   4   2   0  66.7  45.6  -3.55  -1.83 -1.72
8     KC       2.0     6   4   2   0  66.7  60.7   5.74   5.00  0.74
9     TEN      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  38.0  -3.13  -4.40  1.27
10    IND      1.5     6   3   2   1  58.3  40.6  -3.83  -3.00 -0.83
11    SF       7.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  67.8   0.82   5.50 -4.68
12    TB       2.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  59.4   3.50   3.00  0.50
13    ATL      1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  54.2  -0.15   1.67 -1.81
14    CIN      1.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  60.6   6.41   3.83  2.58
15    NE       0.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  62.8   4.83   4.67  0.16
16    BAL     -0.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  56.7   9.24   2.83  6.41
17    SEA     -1.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  43.5  -5.92  -2.83 -3.08
18    GB      -1.5     6   3   3   0  50.0  41.8  -0.64  -2.67  2.03
19    MIA     -3.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  40.2   3.61  -4.00  7.61
20    LA      -4.0     6   3   3   0  50.0  38.8  -2.52  -3.67  1.15
21    CLE     -1.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  44.3  -3.54  -2.50 -1.04
22    DEN     -2.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  45.0  -4.94  -1.33 -3.61
23    NO      -3.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  43.3  -3.23  -2.83 -0.40
24    PIT     -3.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  27.5  -2.61  -8.17  5.56
25    ARI     -5.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  37.3  -5.89  -4.67 -1.23
26    CHI     -6.0     6   2   4   0  33.3  36.3  -5.27  -4.17 -1.10
27    JAX     -6.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  61.1   1.58   4.00 -2.42
28    WAS     -6.5     6   2   4   0  33.3  34.0  -5.50  -5.50 -0.00
29    HOU     -3.0     5   1   3   1  30.0  41.7  -5.80  -2.60 -3.20
30    LV      -2.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  47.7  -3.36  -1.00 -2.36
31    DET     -3.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  38.7  -5.11  -6.00  0.89
32    CAR     -6.5     6   1   5   0  16.7  30.5  -9.32  -7.17 -2.15

Week 5 has the top 3 SRS teams in distinctly different tiers. The first is Buffalo, with a SRS a bit above any team’s annual SRS from 2000 onwards, and a 4-1 record. Next is Baltimore, with a SRS of 12 and a 3-2 record. The third is Cinncinnati, whose record is 2-3 and whose SRS is almost 9. We’re still in the part of the season where SRS is a little wild. It’ll end up a better stat after most teams have 8 games.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
80         41     51.2      26.06        17.10      8.96

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.20


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI      8.0     5   5   0   0 100.0  72.0   6.44   9.40 -2.96
2     BUF     21.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  88.2  20.13  18.20  1.93
3     DAL      7.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  63.7   4.83   4.20  0.63
4     MIN      4.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  56.6   0.71   2.60 -1.89
5     KC       3.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  62.9   4.02   6.80 -2.78
6     NYG      3.0     5   4   1   0  80.0  55.6   0.15   2.00 -1.85
7     SF      15.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  77.9   3.65   9.40 -5.75
8     TB       6.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  61.7   4.09   4.00  0.09
9     BAL      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  59.0  12.87   4.20  8.67
10    LAC      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  44.0  -3.52  -2.80 -0.72
11    MIA      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  42.9   6.70  -3.20  9.90
12    GB       2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  50.6   0.99   0.20  0.79
13    TEN      2.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  38.8  -3.77  -4.40  0.63
14    NYJ      1.0     5   3   2   0  60.0  49.1   4.49  -0.40  4.89
15    IND      0.0     5   2   2   1  50.0  33.6  -6.62  -5.00 -1.62
16    CLE     -1.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  53.4  -1.01   1.60 -2.61
17    ATL     -1.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  48.2  -3.73  -0.80 -2.93
18    DEN     -1.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  46.5  -5.30  -1.00 -4.30
19    CIN     -2.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  60.5   8.97   3.80  5.17
20    NO      -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  44.1  -5.64  -2.60 -3.04
21    ARI     -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  41.4  -4.28  -3.60 -0.68
22    NE      -3.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  52.7   3.07   1.00  2.07
23    SEA     -4.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  39.5  -9.03  -5.40 -3.63
24    JAX     -6.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  67.3   2.88   6.20 -3.32
25    CHI     -7.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  38.7  -4.09  -4.00 -0.09
26    LA     -12.0     5   2   3   0  40.0  30.6  -3.08  -7.20  4.12
27    HOU     -3.0     5   1   3   1  30.0  42.3  -5.93  -2.60 -3.33
28    LV      -2.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  47.8  -3.57  -1.00 -2.57
29    DET     -3.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  39.5  -7.15  -6.00 -1.15
30    CAR     -3.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  35.5  -7.23  -5.80 -1.43
31    PIT     -4.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  24.6  -3.07 -10.20  7.13
32    WAS     -9.0     5   1   4   0  20.0  31.5  -6.95  -7.60  0.65

On the fourth week of the 2022 season, we finally have enough data to resolve Simple Rankings. To note, Philadelphia and Buffalo are within 0.02 points of each other and the clear leaders in the NFC and AFC respectively. The high value of leaders are a product of the lack of data. Over time those things should even out.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
64         33     51.6      25.91        17.33      8.58

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  1.96


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     PHI     12.0     4   4   0   0 100.0  72.1  16.01  11.00  5.01
2     BUF     12.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  79.0  16.03  14.00  2.03
3     KC       6.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  64.1   4.65   8.25 -3.60
4     DAL      5.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  56.6   4.87   2.25  2.62
5     MIN      3.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  53.5   5.86   1.50  4.36
6     MIA      3.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  53.6   9.65   1.75  7.90
7     GB       2.5     4   3   1   0  75.0  54.1   2.45   1.50  0.95
8     NYG      2.0     4   3   1   0  75.0  53.3  -2.13   1.25 -3.38
9     JAX      9.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  70.7  10.37   9.50  0.87
10    SF       7.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  70.1   0.19   6.25 -6.06
11    CIN      4.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  62.6   7.07   5.25  1.82
12    BAL      4.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  58.5   9.96   4.75  5.21
13    TB       4.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  59.1   5.35   3.50  1.85
14    ATL      1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  51.0  -3.92   0.50 -4.42
15    LAC      1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  42.2  -4.94  -4.00 -0.94
16    CLE      0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  54.9  -1.69   2.50 -4.19
17    TEN      0.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  35.8  -6.83  -6.50 -0.33
18    DEN      0.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  48.5  -6.84  -0.50 -6.34
19    ARI     -1.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  42.3  -7.01  -3.75 -3.26
20    SEA     -1.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  40.7  -6.75  -5.00 -1.75
21    CHI     -2.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  41.0  -5.97  -3.25 -2.72
22    LA      -5.5     4   2   2   0  50.0  35.9  -4.68  -6.00  1.32
23    NYJ     -7.0     4   2   2   0  50.0  36.4  -3.38  -6.25  2.87
24    IND     -3.5     4   1   2   1  37.5  31.3  -7.80  -7.00 -0.80
25    CAR     -2.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  45.8  -5.60  -1.75 -3.85
26    DET     -3.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  49.7   3.58  -0.25  3.83
27    LV      -3.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  48.0  -7.40  -1.00 -6.40
28    PIT     -3.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  40.5  -3.87  -4.00  0.13
29    NO      -5.5     4   1   3   0  25.0  38.7  -4.58  -5.00  0.42
30    NE      -7.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  36.5  -1.45  -6.00  4.55
31    WAS    -12.0     4   1   3   0  25.0  32.1   0.21  -8.50  8.71
32    HOU     -5.0     4   0   3   1  12.5  38.3 -11.39  -5.00 -6.39

LA is favored, but not by much. The difference in SRS is 1.86 points, which suggests that LA should have odds of winning of 56%. The Rams were in the playoffs last season, and Cincinnati hasn’t been in a while, which also factors into the Ram’s favor. Rams played the tougher schedule, also a factor in their favor.

That said, Joe Burrow has faced worse odds before. Will they be the Miracle Bengals? I guess we will have to find out.

So now we are down to two games, Cincinnati at Kansas City and 49ers versus Rams. By SRS, KC should be favored by 4.3 points and have a winning percentage of 64%. Splitting the season creates even worse odds for Cincinnati. Rams and 49ers, it depends on if you slice the season in two or not. Rams have a 1.5 point advantage if the whole season is used. if weeks 10 through 17 are used, the 49ers should be favored by 5.1 points. The WP of the two different scenarios is Rams by 55% if whole season data are used, and 49ers by 67% if the split season is used.