2019 Season Super Bowl prediction

The methodology for this prediction is here.

I managed to watch big chunks of both conference games. The Titans made a game of it for one half. They ran out of steam in the third quarter and ended up losing, but the team overall looked good. The Packers were crushed. The score doesn’t really show how bad the game actually was.

Last I read, Kansas City was favored by one point in the odds. My system favors them by a lot more, more like 5 points.

Super Bowl Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	0.683	0.66	5.1

 

2019 Season. Conference Championship Odds.

Conventional wisdom went 3-1 and my picks went 2-2; perhaps I would have done better if the Seahawks hadn’t suffered so many injuries at the end of the season. The Titans continue their upset ways while Green Bay, Kansas City, and San Francisco won as favorites.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Conference (NFC/AFC) Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	0.263	0.56	2.0
Kansas City Chiefs	Tennessee Titans	1.031	0.74	7.6

 

2019 Season. Second Round Odds.

The first round of the playoffs were full of upsets. The Titans upset the Patriots and the Vikings upset the Saints. Both upsets were driven by ground games that both scored and consumed the clock.

The methodology of how we pick is given here.

Second Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
San Francisco 49ers	Minnesota Vikings	0.372	0.59	2.8
Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks	-0.194	0.45	-1.4
Baltimore Ravens	Tennessee Titans	0.985	0.73	7.3
Kansas City Chiefs	Houston Texans	0.429	0.61	3.2

 

2019 NFL Playoff Season. Playoff Worksheet. First round playoff odds.

The methodology of this work is described here.

This year, the formulas favor the Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks. Baltimore has the advantage in any possible encounter in the AFC. Seattle has the advantage over any team not named the New Orleans Saints. As the Saints lose their HFA against Green Bay, they are not favored against Green Bay. The odds of a Seattle-New Orleans matchup are small.

2019 NFL Playoff Teams, C&F Worksheet.
NFC
Rank	Name	Home Field Adv	Playoff Experience	SOS	Total Score
1	San Francisco 49ers	0.660	0	0.125	0.785
2	Green Bay Packers	0.660	0.747	-0.225	1.182
3	New Orleans Saints	0.660	0.747	0.015	1.422
4	Philadelphia Eagles	0.660	0.747	-0.511	0.896
5	Seattle Seahawks	0.0	0.747	0.690	1.376
6	Minnesota Vikings	0.0	0.747	-0.334	0.413
AFC
1	Baltimore Ravens	0.660	0.747	0.015	1.422
2	Kansas City Chiefs	0.660	0.747	0.061	1.468
3	New England Patriots	0.660	0.747	-0.535	0.872
4	Houston Texans	0.660	0.747	0.292	1.699
5	Buffalo Bills	0.0	0.747	-0.380	0.367
6	Tennessee Titans	0.0	0.747	-0.310	0.437

 

The total score of a particular team is used as a base. Subtract the score of the opponent and the result is the logit of the win probability for that game. You can use the inverse logit (see Wolfram Alpha to do this easily) to get the probability, and you can multiply the logit of the win probability by 7.4 to get the estimated point spread.

Because the worksheet above can be hard to decipher, for the first week of the 2019 playoffs, I’ve done all this for you, in the table below. Odds are presented from the home team’s point of view:

First Round Playoff Odds
Home Team	Visiting Team	Score Diff	Win Prob	Est. Point Spread
New Orleans Saints	Minnesota Vikings	1.009	0.733	7.5
Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks	-0.541	0.368	-4.0
New England Patriots	Tennessee Titans	0.435	0.607	3.2
Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills	1.332	0.791	9.9

 

NFL Week 17, 2019 Season

Again, apologies. Father issues.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
256       132     51.6      28.53        16.89     11.64

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.63


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     15.0    16  14   2   0  87.5  84.1  15.62  15.56  0.05
2     SF       7.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  75.9  10.97  10.56  0.41
3     NO       7.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  68.5   7.36   7.31  0.05
4     GB       7.0    16  13   3   0  81.3  61.8   3.20   3.94 -0.74
5     NE      10.5    16  12   4   0  75.0  83.8  10.43  12.19 -1.76
6     KC       7.0    16  12   4   0  75.0  73.2   9.14   8.94  0.20
7     SEA      2.5    16  11   5   0  68.8  51.1   2.71   0.44  2.27
8     MIN      7.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  68.5   5.40   6.50 -1.10
9     BUF      5.5    16  10   6   0  62.5  62.4   2.19   3.44 -1.25
10    HOU      3.0    16  10   6   0  62.5  48.8   0.52  -0.44  0.96
11    PHI      5.5    16   9   7   0  56.3  55.5   0.26   1.94 -1.68
12    LA       5.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  55.2   3.91   1.88  2.04
13    TEN      3.0    16   9   7   0  56.3  62.5   3.42   4.44 -1.02
14    DAL      3.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  68.9   5.29   7.06 -1.77
15    CHI      0.5    16   8   8   0  50.0  45.9  -0.89  -1.13  0.23
16    PIT      0.0    16   8   8   0  50.0  46.9   0.29  -0.88  1.17
17    TB      -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  51.3   0.39   0.56 -0.18
18    ATL     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  47.0  -0.07  -1.13  1.05
19    OAK     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  31.7  -6.90  -6.63 -0.27
20    DEN     -2.0    16   7   9   0  43.8  42.6  -2.12  -2.13  0.00
21    IND     -2.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  47.8  -1.83  -0.75 -1.08
22    NYJ     -4.5    16   7   9   0  43.8  33.4  -6.31  -5.19 -1.12
23    CLE     -6.0    16   6  10   0  37.5  39.6  -1.90  -3.63  1.72
24    JAX     -7.0    16   6  10   0  37.5  32.4  -6.69  -6.06 -0.62
25    ARI     -4.5    16   5  10   1  34.4  37.0  -3.23  -5.06  1.84
26    LAC     -3.0    16   5  11   0  31.3  48.5  -1.32  -0.50 -0.82
27    CAR     -6.0    16   5  11   0  31.3  29.9  -7.03  -8.13  1.10
28    MIA    -11.5    16   5  11   0  31.3  22.1 -11.56 -11.75  0.19
29    NYG     -6.5    16   4  12   0  25.0  32.4  -7.88  -6.88 -1.00
30    DET     -4.0    16   3  12   1  21.9  36.2  -5.23  -5.13 -0.11
31    WAS    -10.0    16   3  13   0  18.8  21.5 -10.78 -10.56 -0.22
32    CIN     -6.5    16   2  14   0  12.5  25.4  -7.34  -8.81  1.47

 

NFL Week 16, 2019 Season

Sorry for the delays. My father was admitted to the hospital and ended up having colon surgery before it was through. The general turmoil of this holiday season would be hard to describe.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
240       125     52.1      28.46        16.84     11.62

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.73


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     14.0    15  13   2   0  86.7  84.3  15.52  15.40  0.12
2     NE      14.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  86.9  12.06  13.20 -1.14
3     SF       9.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  77.3  11.26  10.93  0.33
4     NO       7.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  65.1   6.16   5.67  0.49
5     GB       7.0    15  12   3   0  80.0  62.5   3.62   4.00 -0.38
6     KC       7.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  73.9   9.27   8.87  0.40
7     SEA      3.0    15  11   4   0  73.3  52.2   2.49   0.80  1.69
8     MIN     10.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  70.5   5.89   7.07 -1.18
9     BUF      7.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  64.9   3.12   4.13 -1.01
10    HOU      3.0    15  10   5   0  66.7  52.7   1.73   0.93  0.80
11    PHI      5.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  52.8  -0.33   0.93 -1.27
12    TEN      3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  59.9   2.39   3.33 -0.94
13    LA       3.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  54.5   3.83   1.53  2.29
14    PIT      2.0    15   8   7   0  53.3  51.0   0.53   0.27  0.26
15    TB      -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  52.4   0.81   1.00 -0.19
16    CHI     -1.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  44.9  -1.49  -1.33 -0.15
17    DAL     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  65.7   4.28   5.47 -1.19
18    IND     -2.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  51.2  -0.47   0.40 -0.87
19    OAK     -3.0    15   7   8   0  46.7  30.5  -7.27  -7.00 -0.27
20    DEN     -2.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  41.6  -1.77  -2.33  0.56
21    ATL     -3.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  45.5  -0.48  -1.60  1.12
22    CLE     -5.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  40.4  -0.97  -3.20  2.23
23    NYJ     -8.0    15   6   9   0  40.0  30.9  -7.39  -6.00 -1.39
24    ARI     -3.0    15   5   9   1  36.7  36.8  -3.21  -4.93  1.72
25    LAC     -3.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  50.4  -1.43   0.13 -1.56
26    CAR     -6.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  33.0  -5.84  -6.53  0.70
27    JAX     -7.0    15   5  10   0  33.3  27.0  -8.24  -7.67 -0.57
28    NYG     -6.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  33.4  -7.30  -6.20 -1.10
29    MIA    -13.0    15   4  11   0  26.7  19.4 -13.05 -12.73 -0.32
30    DET     -4.0    15   3  11   1  23.3  35.4  -5.55  -5.27 -0.29
31    WAS    -10.0    15   3  12   0  20.0  23.1  -9.76  -9.20 -0.56
32    CIN     -7.0    15   1  14   0   6.7  21.3  -8.42 -10.07  1.65

 

NFL Week 15, 2019 Season

The word being used to describe the Atlanta win over San Francisco is “miracle”. The Saints appeared to respond to the chance to take over the #1 seed in the NFC with a crushing victory over the Colts. The Saints stats are not to the level of New England, San Francisco, or Baltimore statistically, but they have been using a second string QB for a good part of the year.

As far as Dallas goes, the phrase most commonly heard is “Where has this team been all season?” The Week 16 clash between Dallas and Philadelphia will decide the conference leader.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
224       117     52.2      28.48        16.80     11.68

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.75


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     BAL     10.5    14  12   2   0  85.7  84.2  15.57  15.36  0.21
2     NE      15.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  87.9  11.98  13.64 -1.67
3     SF       9.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  79.1  11.84  11.50  0.34
4     GB       7.0    14  11   3   0  78.6  60.4   2.77   3.36 -0.58
5     NO       6.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  64.7   5.96   5.36  0.60
6     SEA      3.5    14  11   3   0  78.6  55.0   4.23   1.86  2.37
7     MIN     11.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  73.9   6.99   8.50 -1.51
8     BUF      7.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  67.8   2.87   4.93 -2.06
9     KC       6.0    14  10   4   0  71.4  71.1   8.02   7.86  0.17
10    HOU      3.0    14   9   5   0  64.3  52.2   1.23   0.79  0.44
11    LA       5.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  55.6   4.13   1.86  2.28
12    PIT      3.5    14   8   6   0  57.1  52.6   1.57   0.71  0.85
13    TEN      3.0    14   8   6   0  57.1  63.1   2.47   4.29 -1.81
14    DAL      3.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  67.8   5.07   6.43 -1.36
15    TB       1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  53.0   1.21   1.29 -0.08
16    PHI      1.0    14   7   7   0  50.0  51.2  -1.08   0.43 -1.51
17    CHI      0.5    14   7   7   0  50.0  50.8  -0.66   0.21 -0.88
18    IND     -2.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  44.4  -2.59  -1.86 -0.73
19    OAK     -3.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  28.1  -8.48  -8.00 -0.48
20    CLE     -4.5    14   6   8   0  42.9  43.0  -0.89  -2.29  1.39
21    DEN     -2.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  38.4  -2.51  -3.21  0.71
22    LAC     -3.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  52.1  -0.84   0.64 -1.48
23    CAR     -4.5    14   5   9   0  35.7  37.5  -3.84  -4.71  0.87
24    ATL     -5.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  42.9  -0.53  -2.57  2.04
25    JAX     -7.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  27.9  -8.21  -7.36 -0.86
26    NYJ    -11.0    14   5   9   0  35.7  28.9  -8.54  -6.86 -1.69
27    ARI     -4.5    14   4   9   1  32.1  33.5  -4.09  -6.29  2.19
28    DET     -4.0    14   3  10   1  25.0  36.3  -5.05  -4.93 -0.12
29    NYG     -6.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  30.5  -7.55  -7.07 -0.48
30    WAS    -10.0    14   3  11   0  21.4  21.2  -9.44  -9.43 -0.01
31    MIA    -14.5    14   3  11   0  21.4  16.5 -13.83 -13.86  0.03
32    CIN     -7.5    14   1  13   0   7.1  18.9  -7.78 -10.57  2.79

 

NFL Week 14, 2019 Season

I guess the question of the week after the Chiefs – Patriots game is: have the refs always been this bad or are they steadily getting worse? The other standing question is, are the Ravens as good as their stats say they are? We probably won’t know till the playoffs kick off.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
208       110     52.9      28.24        16.80     11.44

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.69


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     SF      10.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  81.4  13.26  12.92  0.34
2     BAL      7.0    13  11   2   0  84.6  83.4  16.35  14.92  1.43
3     NE      14.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  86.7  11.83  13.08 -1.25
4     GB       7.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  59.0   2.28   3.00 -0.72
5     NO       6.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  60.0   3.90   3.69  0.20
6     SEA      3.0    13  10   3   0  76.9  54.1   4.40   1.54  2.86
7     MIN     10.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  69.6   5.01   6.92 -1.91
8     BUF      7.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  66.6   2.61   4.77 -2.16
9     KC       5.0    13   9   4   0  69.2  67.8   7.70   6.92  0.78
10    LA       7.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  61.3   5.77   3.77  2.00
11    PIT      5.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  54.5   3.01   1.31  1.71
12    TEN      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  64.4   3.13   4.85 -1.72
13    HOU      3.0    13   8   5   0  61.5  51.7   1.10   0.62  0.48
14    CHI      2.0    13   7   6   0  53.8  53.1  -0.52   0.85 -1.37
15    TB      -1.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  49.5  -0.33  -0.23 -0.09
16    DAL     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  64.6   2.79   5.15 -2.37
17    IND     -2.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  50.2  -0.90   0.08 -0.98
18    PHI     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  49.1  -1.78  -0.31 -1.47
19    OAK     -3.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  28.1  -7.91  -8.31  0.40
20    CLE     -4.0    13   6   7   0  46.2  45.7   1.19  -1.38  2.57
21    DEN     -2.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  43.3  -1.30  -1.92  0.62
22    CAR     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  38.0  -4.60  -4.62  0.01
23    LAC     -3.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  59.4   1.35   2.92 -1.57
24    NYJ     -8.0    13   5   8   0  38.5  31.6  -8.79  -5.77 -3.02
25    ATL     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  41.1  -2.57  -3.31  0.74
26    JAX     -7.0    13   4   9   0  30.8  26.4  -8.35  -8.23 -0.12
27    DET     -4.0    13   3   9   1  26.9  39.8  -4.53  -3.69 -0.83
28    ARI     -6.0    13   3   9   1  26.9  29.8  -5.40  -7.85  2.44
29    WAS    -10.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  20.7  -9.72  -9.38 -0.34
30    MIA    -13.0    13   3  10   0  23.1  17.0 -12.79 -13.69  0.90
31    NYG     -7.0    13   2  11   0  15.4  26.4  -9.14  -8.85 -0.29
32    CIN     -7.0    13   1  12   0   7.7  20.9  -7.04  -9.77  2.73

 

NFL Week 13, 2019 Season

Now that Ron Rivera has been sacked, a lot of talk is migrating to which head coaches are going to be unemployed at the end of the season. Both Dan Quinn and Jason Garrett are believed to be targets. If Dan is sacked, the cause I believe is mismanagement of the defensive coordinator position. It’s not an additional role he should have taken on.

In the case of Dallas, underperformance is a statistical fact that stands out in the nuumbers. Pythagoreans are about 20% higher than actual win rate. It’s the reverse of 2016, when performance was better than Pythagoreans. The linebackers have not been the darlings they were at the end of 2018, and fans are wondering if they have been “figured out”.

The opposing coach versus home coach and player is a battle. Opposing coaches learn tendencies which they use against players. Players learn to play smarter. Home coaches figure out what’s being done to players and prep them better. Feeling among fans is that Dallas handles motivation well, but manages to get outcoached a couple times a year. If they want to make the playoffs and make some noise, they need a better game day coach.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
192       101     52.6      28.03        16.53     11.50

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  2.80


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      15.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  90.3  13.08  14.75 -1.67
2     SF      11.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  85.9  14.17  13.83  0.34
3     BAL     10.0    12  10   2   0  83.3  84.9  17.26  15.58  1.68
4     NO       6.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  62.6   3.47   4.17 -0.70
5     SEA      3.5    12  10   2   0  83.3  58.0   5.57   3.00  2.57
6     BUF      8.5    12   9   3   0  75.0  70.6   2.01   5.75 -3.74
7     GB       7.0    12   9   3   0  75.0  58.7   2.53   2.83 -0.30
8     MIN      7.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  68.4   4.42   6.42 -2.00
9     KC       4.5    12   8   4   0  66.7  68.2   6.73   6.92 -0.19
10    HOU      3.0    12   8   4   0  66.7  55.4   2.71   1.83  0.88
11    LA       5.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  58.6   4.75   2.75  2.00
12    PIT      3.5    12   7   5   0  58.3  53.3   3.34   0.92  2.43
13    TEN      3.0    12   7   5   0  58.3  61.3   2.17   3.50 -1.33
14    DAL      3.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  68.2   3.62   6.17 -2.55
15    CHI      0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  51.3  -1.94   0.33 -2.27
16    IND      0.0    12   6   6   0  50.0  51.1  -0.94   0.33 -1.28
17    OAK     -0.5    12   6   6   0  50.0  29.4  -7.55  -7.25 -0.30
18    TB      -2.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  48.8  -0.26  -0.50  0.24
19    CAR     -3.0    12   5   7   0  41.7  40.8  -3.03  -3.33  0.30
20    PHI     -3.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  47.5  -1.72  -0.83 -0.89
21    CLE     -4.5    12   5   7   0  41.7  43.0   1.28  -2.17  3.44
22    DEN     -2.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  37.7  -3.24  -3.25  0.01
23    LAC     -3.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  50.9  -1.18   0.25 -1.43
24    JAX     -7.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  31.2  -6.18  -6.00 -0.18
25    NYJ    -11.0    12   4   8   0  33.3  29.2  -8.11  -6.33 -1.77
26    DET     -3.5    12   3   8   1  29.2  41.8  -4.73  -2.92 -1.81
27    ARI     -4.5    12   3   8   1  29.2  29.0  -5.36  -8.00  2.64
28    ATL     -7.5    12   3   9   0  25.0  35.3  -3.98  -5.25  1.27
29    WAS    -10.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  19.1 -10.12  -9.75 -0.37
30    MIA    -15.0    12   3   9   0  25.0  14.5 -13.04 -14.75  1.71
31    NYG    -10.5    12   2  10   0  16.7  25.3  -9.19  -9.08 -0.10
32    CIN     -6.5    12   1  11   0   8.3  19.4  -6.54  -9.92  3.38

 

NFL Week 12, 2019 Season

Dallas-New England was a remarkably entertaining game, which would have been more entertaining if there wasn’t a referee creating tripping penalties out of thin air. It’s the same ref that made a mystery call against the Dallas long snapper last year. Once again, Dallas fans are asking what it is about the NFL front office and critical mystery penalty calls against the Cowboys.

Global Statistics:
Games  Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin
176        93     52.8      27.98        16.49     11.49

Calculated Pythagorean Exponent:  3.01


Rank  Team    Median  GP   W   L   T  Pct   Pred   SRS    MOV   SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1     NE      16.0    11  10   1   0  90.9  94.4  14.95  16.64 -1.69
2     SF      13.0    11  10   1   0  90.9  89.5  13.81  15.36 -1.55
3     BAL     14.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  87.5  16.50  16.73 -0.23
4     NO       6.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  62.4   3.28   3.82 -0.54
5     SEA      3.0    11   9   2   0  81.8  57.8   4.69   2.64  2.05
6     MIN     10.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  73.8   5.40   7.64 -2.24
7     GB       7.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  54.8   2.50   1.45  1.05
8     BUF      7.0    11   8   3   0  72.7  70.5   0.90   5.27 -4.38
9     KC       4.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  63.6   5.25   4.73  0.53
10    HOU      3.0    11   7   4   0  63.6  54.7   1.39   1.45 -0.06
11    DAL      8.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  73.6   5.49   7.73 -2.24
12    LA       3.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  51.8   2.76   0.55  2.21
13    TEN      3.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  59.0   1.02   2.55 -1.52
14    IND      2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  55.7  -0.52   1.64 -2.15
15    OAK      2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  34.1  -6.08  -5.09 -0.99
16    PIT      2.0    11   6   5   0  54.5  51.4   2.30   0.36  1.94
17    CHI     -1.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  50.0  -1.75   0.00 -1.75
18    CAR     -3.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  41.3  -2.14  -2.91  0.76
19    PHI     -3.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  48.8   0.30  -0.36  0.67
20    CLE     -4.0    11   5   6   0  45.5  44.1   1.24  -1.73  2.97
21    LAC     -3.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  52.0  -1.09   0.55 -1.64
22    TB      -4.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  44.7  -1.31  -2.09  0.78
23    JAX     -7.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  33.1  -5.67  -5.00 -0.67
24    NYJ     -8.0    11   4   7   0  36.4  31.1  -6.09  -5.45 -0.64
25    DET     -3.0    11   3   7   1  31.8  41.6  -3.97  -2.82 -1.15
26    ARI     -3.0    11   3   7   1  31.8  32.3  -4.05  -6.27  2.23
27    DEN     -2.0    11   3   8   0  27.3  34.4  -3.71  -3.82  0.11
28    ATL     -7.0    11   3   8   0  27.3  35.1  -4.02  -5.00  0.98
29    NYG     -7.0    11   2   9   0  18.2  25.8  -7.88  -8.27  0.39
30    WAS    -10.0    11   2   9   0  18.2  13.2 -10.76 -11.36  0.61
31    MIA    -17.0    11   2   9   0  18.2   9.4 -14.47 -16.64  2.16
32    CIN     -7.0    11   0  11   0   0.0  13.4  -8.28 -12.27  4.00