So now there are two teams. I will not use my usual formula for this game, as it is not valid in a season without a home field advantage. I will note that Tampa Bay has a higher Simple Ranking than Kansas City, and a larger Pythagorean. SRS would give Tampa Bay an advantage of between 2 and 3 points. That said, as a practical man, I will note that Kansas City is outperforming its expectations and has through most of the year. And Patrick Mahomes, along with Aaron Rodgers, are the two most dangerous quarterbacks in the league.
February 2, 2021
NFL Championship, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
January 21, 2021
Playoffs Conference Round, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Buffalo Bills, Football, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Statistics, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tags: NFL playoffs, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
Ok, I have not been posting my playoff formulas, and for good reason, as there is no home field advantage this time around. That and the insane politics of the US transition have made it easy to focus on other things.
Looking purely at offensive stats (not the best predictors) from this source Tampa Bay should be slightly favored over Green Bay, so long as the weather is decent. Bad weather would give Green Bay an edge. The same is true for Buffalo; it should be slightly favored just looking at simple rankings or Pythagoreans. In the case of Tampa Bay, the delta is less than 2 points. For Buffalo, less than a point.
The other side of the coin is that both Green Bay and Kansas City outperformed their Pythagoreans, GB by a bit, KC by a lot. Though in KC’s case, Patrick Mahomes has to pass a concussion protocol before he would be allowed to play.
We’ll see. Stats suggest close games in any case. In terms of a good analytics take on the games, try this article from fivethirtyeight.com.
January 6, 2021
NFL Week 17, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |1 Comment
This is the last week, analyzed with my tools. I’m pondering what to do with regard to playoff predictions, as mine explicitly have home field advantage as a large component of the system, and there is no HFA this regular season. That notion will be in play the next couple days.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 256 127 49.6 30.23 19.16 11.07 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.46 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 KC 5.0 16 14 2 0 87.5 71.6 6.80 6.94 -0.14 2 GB 11.5 16 13 3 0 81.2 75.3 7.65 8.75 -1.10 3 BUF 9.0 16 13 3 0 81.2 73.2 7.71 7.88 -0.16 4 NO 5.5 16 12 4 0 75.0 77.6 9.58 9.06 0.51 5 SEA 5.5 16 12 4 0 75.0 67.6 5.46 5.50 -0.04 6 PIT 5.0 16 12 4 0 75.0 73.0 4.65 6.50 -1.85 7 BAL 14.0 16 11 5 0 68.8 81.9 8.27 10.31 -2.04 8 TB 9.5 16 11 5 0 68.8 75.6 9.38 8.56 0.82 9 IND 6.5 16 11 5 0 68.8 68.2 2.80 5.56 -2.76 10 TEN 3.0 16 11 5 0 68.8 59.6 1.59 3.25 -1.66 11 CLE 3.0 16 11 5 0 68.8 47.7 -2.58 -0.69 -1.89 12 MIA 5.5 16 10 6 0 62.5 65.0 2.97 4.12 -1.16 13 LA 5.0 16 10 6 0 62.5 68.8 5.42 4.75 0.67 14 LV 0.0 16 8 8 0 50.0 41.7 -1.95 -2.75 0.80 15 ARI -0.5 16 8 8 0 50.0 59.5 2.57 2.69 -0.12 16 CHI -1.0 16 8 8 0 50.0 50.5 0.24 0.12 0.11 17 MIN -1.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 41.5 -2.41 -2.81 0.40 18 LAC -2.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 41.1 -2.92 -2.62 -0.29 19 WAS -2.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 51.6 -0.85 0.38 -1.22 20 NE -4.0 16 7 9 0 43.8 43.2 -0.98 -1.69 0.71 21 NYG -2.5 16 6 10 0 37.5 30.1 -4.44 -4.81 0.38 22 DAL -4.5 16 6 10 0 37.5 34.9 -5.12 -4.88 -0.24 23 SF -4.5 16 6 10 0 37.5 46.8 0.84 -0.88 1.72 24 CAR -3.5 16 5 11 0 31.2 38.2 -1.07 -3.25 2.18 25 DEN -4.0 16 5 11 0 31.2 24.6 -6.01 -7.69 1.68 26 DET -6.5 16 5 11 0 31.2 24.8 -7.72 -8.88 1.15 27 CIN -3.5 16 4 11 1 28.1 25.5 -7.49 -7.06 -0.43 28 PHI -6.0 16 4 11 1 28.1 31.5 -4.40 -5.25 0.85 29 ATL -3.5 16 4 12 0 25.0 46.2 0.74 -1.12 1.86 30 HOU -6.0 16 4 12 0 25.0 34.2 -5.51 -5.00 -0.51 31 NYJ -12.0 16 2 14 0 12.5 10.1 -11.51 -13.38 1.87 32 JAX -12.0 16 1 15 0 6.2 16.2 -11.72 -11.62 -0.10
December 29, 2020
NFL Week 16, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
Kansas City has secured the #1 seed in the AFC. Green Bay has the inside track to #1 in the NFC. Home Field advantage? Will it exist in the pandemic world? There has been no HFA during the regular season, but HFA during the playoffs is a larger effect than regular season. Teams stronger than their record include Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Baltimore.
The Jets have won again, so the Jaguars now lead for the #1 draft pick. The NFC East is actually a race again, though with the Washington run game, as long as they have a working QB, they are the likely winner there.
There were some good games this week. Colts-Steelers was a notably good game, but the best of the year, so far, was Miami-Las Vegas.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 240 120 50.0 30.08 19.12 10.96 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.38 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 KC 6.0 15 14 1 0 93.3 75.5 8.39 8.53 -0.14 2 GB 9.0 15 12 3 0 80.0 73.0 6.92 8.07 -1.14 3 BUF 8.0 15 12 3 0 80.0 69.4 6.17 6.40 -0.23 4 PIT 5.0 15 12 3 0 80.0 74.2 5.13 7.07 -1.94 5 SEA 6.0 15 11 4 0 73.3 67.7 5.61 5.67 -0.05 6 NO 5.0 15 11 4 0 73.3 73.9 8.61 7.93 0.67 7 BAL 14.0 15 10 5 0 66.7 77.1 7.15 8.67 -1.52 8 MIA 8.0 15 10 5 0 66.7 72.9 4.61 6.40 -1.79 9 TB 7.0 15 10 5 0 66.7 74.1 8.82 8.00 0.82 10 IND 6.0 15 10 5 0 66.7 65.9 2.86 5.00 -2.14 11 TEN 3.0 15 10 5 0 66.7 59.6 1.74 3.27 -1.52 12 CLE 3.0 15 10 5 0 66.7 47.2 -3.13 -0.87 -2.26 13 LA 3.0 15 9 6 0 60.0 66.5 4.92 4.33 0.58 14 ARI 2.0 15 8 7 0 53.3 61.9 3.12 3.60 -0.48 15 CHI 1.0 15 8 7 0 53.3 55.1 0.92 1.40 -0.48 16 LV -1.0 15 7 8 0 46.7 41.1 -1.79 -3.00 1.21 17 MIN -1.0 15 6 9 0 40.0 40.6 -2.18 -3.13 0.95 18 LAC -3.0 15 6 9 0 40.0 37.0 -4.52 -3.93 -0.58 19 WAS -3.0 15 6 9 0 40.0 50.0 -0.95 0.00 -0.95 20 DAL -5.0 15 6 9 0 40.0 35.3 -4.87 -4.93 0.07 21 SF -5.0 15 6 9 0 40.0 47.4 0.64 -0.73 1.37 22 NE -5.0 15 6 9 0 40.0 39.3 -1.27 -2.73 1.46 23 CAR -3.0 15 5 10 0 33.3 43.9 -0.09 -1.73 1.65 24 NYG -3.0 15 5 10 0 33.3 28.4 -4.64 -5.40 0.76 25 DEN -5.0 15 5 10 0 33.3 23.5 -6.16 -8.13 1.98 26 DET -7.0 15 5 10 0 33.3 23.9 -7.90 -9.33 1.43 27 CIN -3.0 15 4 10 1 30.0 31.8 -6.29 -5.20 -1.09 28 PHI -6.0 15 4 10 1 30.0 32.4 -4.35 -5.20 0.85 29 ATL -3.0 15 4 11 0 26.7 49.8 1.29 -0.07 1.35 30 HOU -6.0 15 4 11 0 26.7 33.6 -5.69 -5.13 -0.55 31 NYJ -10.0 15 2 13 0 13.3 10.7 -11.32 -13.33 2.02 32 JAX -10.0 15 1 14 0 6.7 17.3 -11.75 -11.47 -0.29
December 22, 2020
NFL Week 15, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
Jets win! Jets win! Jets win!
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 224 111 49.6 30.03 19.28 10.75 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.47 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 KC 6.0 14 13 1 0 92.9 76.4 8.15 8.93 -0.78 2 GB 8.5 14 11 3 0 78.6 70.2 5.54 6.79 -1.24 3 BUF 7.5 14 11 3 0 78.6 65.1 4.53 4.79 -0.26 4 PIT 5.0 14 11 3 0 78.6 75.7 5.57 7.29 -1.71 5 IND 6.5 14 10 4 0 71.4 68.3 3.59 5.64 -2.05 6 SEA 5.5 14 10 4 0 71.4 66.5 4.88 5.29 -0.40 7 TEN 4.5 14 10 4 0 71.4 65.8 3.82 5.36 -1.54 8 NO 4.0 14 10 4 0 71.4 73.3 7.31 7.14 0.16 9 CLE 4.0 14 10 4 0 71.4 48.6 -1.44 -0.43 -1.01 10 BAL 9.5 14 9 5 0 64.3 76.5 7.87 8.29 -0.42 11 MIA 9.0 14 9 5 0 64.3 74.9 4.87 6.79 -1.91 12 TB 5.5 14 9 5 0 64.3 68.4 6.50 5.71 0.79 13 LA 5.0 14 9 5 0 64.3 70.4 5.30 5.43 -0.13 14 ARI 2.5 14 8 6 0 57.1 64.6 3.76 4.43 -0.66 15 LV 0.0 14 7 7 0 50.0 40.5 -2.70 -3.14 0.45 16 CHI -1.0 14 7 7 0 50.0 49.2 0.22 -0.21 0.43 17 MIN -1.0 14 6 8 0 42.9 43.5 -1.83 -2.00 0.17 18 WAS -2.0 14 6 8 0 42.9 52.0 -0.22 0.50 -0.72 19 NE -4.0 14 6 8 0 42.9 46.5 0.03 -0.86 0.89 20 NYG -2.5 14 5 9 0 35.7 30.1 -4.33 -4.79 0.45 21 LAC -3.0 14 5 9 0 35.7 35.4 -5.17 -4.43 -0.74 22 DEN -5.5 14 5 9 0 35.7 22.3 -6.54 -8.50 1.96 23 DAL -6.0 14 5 9 0 35.7 29.9 -5.97 -6.71 0.74 24 DET -6.5 14 5 9 0 35.7 28.7 -6.27 -7.14 0.88 25 SF -6.5 14 5 9 0 35.7 45.2 -0.25 -1.36 1.11 26 PHI -5.5 14 4 9 1 32.1 35.2 -2.88 -4.14 1.26 27 ATL -3.5 14 4 10 0 28.6 50.5 0.20 0.14 0.06 28 CAR -3.5 14 4 10 0 28.6 41.6 -1.22 -2.36 1.13 29 HOU -6.5 14 4 10 0 28.6 33.0 -4.47 -5.07 0.61 30 CIN -3.5 14 3 10 1 25.0 28.1 -6.02 -6.00 -0.02 31 JAX -9.0 14 1 13 0 7.1 18.3 -10.18 -10.57 0.39 32 NYJ -13.5 14 1 13 0 7.1 8.2 -12.65 -14.79 2.13
December 15, 2020
NFL Week 14, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
Saw a bit of Pittsburgh – Buffalo, a game that was a lot of fun to watch. Best teams pretty much the same as last week.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 208 103 49.5 29.95 19.16 10.79 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.46 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 KC 6.0 13 12 1 0 92.3 77.7 7.91 9.38 -1.48 2 PIT 5.0 13 11 2 0 84.6 79.2 6.77 8.62 -1.84 3 GB 9.0 13 10 3 0 76.9 69.5 5.89 6.69 -0.81 4 BUF 7.0 13 10 3 0 76.9 59.6 3.05 2.92 0.13 5 NO 5.0 13 10 3 0 76.9 75.7 7.93 7.92 0.01 6 LA 7.0 13 9 4 0 69.2 72.4 7.06 6.08 0.99 7 SEA 6.0 13 9 4 0 69.2 66.1 4.91 5.31 -0.40 8 IND 6.0 13 9 4 0 69.2 67.8 3.22 5.54 -2.32 9 TEN 3.0 13 9 4 0 69.2 62.6 2.74 4.15 -1.41 10 CLE 3.0 13 9 4 0 69.2 45.2 -2.79 -1.54 -1.25 11 MIA 8.0 13 8 5 0 61.5 73.7 4.25 6.54 -2.29 12 TB 7.0 13 8 5 0 61.5 68.9 7.18 5.85 1.34 13 BAL 5.0 13 8 5 0 61.5 72.8 6.91 6.92 -0.01 14 LV 3.0 13 7 6 0 53.8 40.5 -2.47 -3.15 0.68 15 ARI 2.0 13 7 6 0 53.8 64.0 3.82 4.23 -0.41 16 MIN -1.0 13 6 7 0 46.2 44.5 -1.45 -1.69 0.24 17 WAS -1.0 13 6 7 0 46.2 53.7 -0.13 0.92 -1.05 18 CHI -3.0 13 6 7 0 46.2 47.3 0.37 -0.69 1.07 19 NE -3.0 13 6 7 0 46.2 49.4 0.34 -0.15 0.50 20 NYG -2.0 13 5 8 0 38.5 33.3 -3.27 -4.08 0.80 21 SF -5.0 13 5 8 0 38.5 46.9 0.98 -0.85 1.83 22 DEN -5.0 13 5 8 0 38.5 26.1 -5.24 -6.92 1.69 23 DET -6.0 13 5 8 0 38.5 31.3 -5.23 -6.08 0.85 24 PHI -5.0 13 4 8 1 34.6 35.8 -2.69 -3.92 1.23 25 ATL -3.0 13 4 9 0 30.8 51.6 0.34 0.46 -0.13 26 CAR -3.0 13 4 9 0 30.8 43.3 -0.78 -1.92 1.15 27 LAC -3.0 13 4 9 0 30.8 33.5 -5.76 -5.00 -0.76 28 HOU -6.0 13 4 9 0 30.8 33.6 -4.55 -4.92 0.38 29 DAL -7.0 13 4 9 0 30.8 26.5 -6.98 -7.85 0.87 30 CIN -4.0 13 2 10 1 19.2 24.5 -8.03 -7.23 -0.80 31 JAX -8.0 13 1 12 0 7.7 21.0 -9.90 -9.38 -0.52 32 NYJ -17.0 13 0 13 0 0.0 6.6 -14.44 -16.15 1.72
December 13, 2020
NFL Week 13, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
Sorry if putting out these data is slow. To note, perhaps the most significant news this week is that New Orleans won again with a backup QB and that Washington Football Team and the Giants both won. Identifying a best team has become harder as the stats grow closer together. New Orleans has the best SRS. PIT has the best Pythagorean. Only fools ignore KC.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 192 96 50.0 29.88 19.38 10.51 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.57 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 KC 7.5 12 11 1 0 91.7 79.3 8.35 9.67 -1.32 2 PIT 6.0 12 11 1 0 91.7 83.8 8.10 10.25 -2.15 3 NO 5.5 12 10 2 0 83.3 78.6 9.19 8.83 0.35 4 GB 11.5 12 9 3 0 75.0 70.0 6.38 6.67 -0.29 5 BUF 5.0 12 9 3 0 75.0 57.5 1.82 2.25 -0.43 6 CLE 4.0 12 9 3 0 75.0 45.7 -2.79 -1.25 -1.54 7 MIA 9.5 12 8 4 0 66.7 78.2 4.46 7.58 -3.12 8 SEA 5.5 12 8 4 0 66.7 58.4 2.79 2.67 0.13 9 IND 5.0 12 8 4 0 66.7 65.8 2.69 4.58 -1.90 10 LA 5.0 12 8 4 0 66.7 68.2 4.92 4.83 0.09 11 TEN 2.5 12 8 4 0 66.7 58.5 2.32 2.75 -0.43 12 BAL 8.0 12 7 5 0 58.3 75.4 7.52 7.08 0.43 13 TB 4.5 12 7 5 0 58.3 67.6 7.07 5.33 1.74 14 LV 3.5 12 7 5 0 58.3 43.6 -1.13 -2.00 0.87 15 MIN 0.0 12 6 6 0 50.0 47.2 -1.31 -0.83 -0.48 16 NE 0.0 12 6 6 0 50.0 56.4 1.66 1.58 0.08 17 ARI -0.5 12 6 6 0 50.0 60.1 2.19 3.00 -0.81 18 NYG -1.5 12 5 7 0 41.7 38.0 -3.18 -2.83 -0.35 19 WAS -2.0 12 5 7 0 41.7 51.4 -1.43 0.33 -1.76 20 CHI -3.5 12 5 7 0 41.7 37.4 -1.68 -3.17 1.49 21 SF -4.5 12 5 7 0 41.7 49.1 1.25 -0.25 1.50 22 DET -5.0 12 5 7 0 41.7 31.0 -5.61 -6.00 0.39 23 ATL -2.5 12 4 8 0 33.3 52.6 1.01 0.75 0.26 24 CAR -2.5 12 4 8 0 33.3 43.9 0.03 -1.67 1.70 25 DEN -5.5 12 4 8 0 33.3 22.1 -5.37 -7.92 2.54 26 HOU -6.0 12 4 8 0 33.3 39.9 -2.07 -2.92 0.84 27 PHI -5.5 12 3 8 1 29.2 33.4 -4.10 -4.50 0.40 28 LAC -4.0 12 3 9 0 25.0 31.3 -5.81 -5.67 -0.15 29 DAL -9.0 12 3 9 0 25.0 20.3 -9.39 -10.42 1.02 30 CIN -3.5 12 2 9 1 20.8 28.2 -6.22 -5.92 -0.30 31 JAX -6.0 12 1 11 0 8.3 23.0 -8.58 -8.42 -0.16 32 NYJ -13.5 12 0 12 0 0.0 8.3 -13.05 -14.42 1.37
December 1, 2020
NFL Week 12, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
I watched a fair amount of football, but did not get to see the New York Giants take command of the NFC East. The best team in the NFL is one of PIT, KC, and NO at present. The Falcon’s blowout was welcome, and Dallas lost 2 starting tackles in a single game once again.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 176 90 51.1 29.98 19.41 10.57 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.44 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 PIT 8.0 10 10 0 0 100.0 86.4 9.02 12.40 -3.38 2 KC 9.0 11 10 1 0 90.9 78.7 9.18 10.00 -0.82 3 NO 6.0 11 9 2 0 81.8 78.2 10.07 9.18 0.89 4 GB 9.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 67.3 6.34 6.00 0.34 5 SEA 6.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 59.7 3.34 3.36 -0.02 6 TEN 3.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 60.8 3.45 3.55 -0.10 7 BUF 3.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 55.0 1.03 1.55 -0.52 8 CLE 3.0 11 8 3 0 72.7 43.5 -3.83 -1.91 -1.92 9 MIA 8.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 75.4 4.09 7.18 -3.09 10 IND 4.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 64.8 2.68 4.45 -1.77 11 LA 3.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 66.7 4.04 4.36 -0.32 12 BAL 8.0 10 6 4 0 60.0 74.9 7.60 7.30 0.30 13 TB 4.5 12 7 5 0 58.3 67.0 7.65 5.33 2.32 14 LV 4.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 42.5 -0.14 -2.45 2.31 15 ARI 2.0 11 6 5 0 54.5 63.7 2.27 4.18 -1.91 16 MIN -1.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 46.3 -0.74 -1.18 0.45 17 NE -3.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 40.9 -1.72 -2.36 0.65 18 CHI -3.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 37.7 -0.85 -3.09 2.24 19 SF -4.0 11 5 6 0 45.5 52.3 1.53 0.64 0.90 20 ATL -1.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 54.2 1.07 1.27 -0.21 21 NYG -2.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 36.0 -4.42 -3.55 -0.88 22 WAS -3.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 49.3 -3.36 -0.18 -3.18 23 DEN -5.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 22.8 -5.69 -8.09 2.40 24 HOU -6.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 41.3 -2.11 -2.64 0.53 25 DET -6.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 28.8 -6.23 -6.91 0.68 26 CAR -2.5 12 4 8 0 33.3 44.1 0.73 -1.67 2.39 27 PHI -5.0 11 3 7 1 31.8 36.9 -4.22 -3.64 -0.58 28 LAC -3.0 11 3 8 0 27.3 43.2 -2.25 -2.09 -0.16 29 DAL -7.0 11 3 8 0 27.3 22.6 -9.83 -9.82 -0.02 30 CIN -3.0 11 2 8 1 22.7 31.3 -6.07 -5.36 -0.71 31 JAX -8.0 11 1 10 0 9.1 22.6 -8.64 -8.91 0.27 32 NYJ -17.0 11 0 11 0 0.0 7.0 -13.98 -15.45 1.48
November 24, 2020
NFL Week 11, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
I was able to watch big chunks of four games this last weekend. I saw some of the Atlanta – New Orleans game, pretty close for a half. I saw Dallas – Minnesota, the Sunday night and Monday night games. All three of these were entertaining and competitive. In terms of good teams, PIT, KC and NO look good. None of the 3 loss teams have particularly good stats. TB and BAL still look good despite four losses.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 161 85 52.8 29.94 19.55 10.39 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.67 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 PIT 8.0 10 10 0 0 100.0 87.8 8.86 12.40 -3.54 2 KC 11.5 10 9 1 0 90.0 81.6 9.91 10.70 -0.79 3 NO 4.5 10 8 2 0 80.0 73.9 9.05 7.30 1.75 4 GB 8.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 65.7 4.80 5.00 -0.20 5 SEA 6.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 59.3 3.33 3.10 0.23 6 IND 6.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 73.8 4.18 6.80 -2.62 7 LA 5.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 70.3 4.59 5.10 -0.51 8 CLE 4.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 41.6 -3.27 -2.30 -0.97 9 BUF 3.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 52.4 0.84 0.70 0.14 10 TEN 2.5 10 7 3 0 70.0 56.8 1.57 2.00 -0.43 11 TB 7.0 11 7 4 0 63.6 70.3 8.19 6.09 2.10 12 BAL 8.0 10 6 4 0 60.0 76.2 7.30 7.30 -0.00 13 MIA 5.5 10 6 4 0 60.0 72.7 4.44 6.20 -1.76 14 LV 4.5 10 6 4 0 60.0 53.3 3.83 1.00 2.83 15 ARI 2.5 10 6 4 0 60.0 66.5 3.02 4.90 -1.88 16 CHI -1.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 41.8 -0.36 -1.80 1.44 17 MIN -1.0 10 4 6 0 40.0 45.3 -1.60 -1.40 -0.20 18 DEN -3.5 10 4 6 0 40.0 27.9 -4.32 -6.10 1.78 19 NE -4.0 10 4 6 0 40.0 38.3 -2.02 -2.90 0.88 20 SF -4.5 10 4 6 0 40.0 51.6 0.85 0.40 0.45 21 DET -5.0 10 4 6 0 40.0 29.7 -5.65 -6.00 0.35 22 CAR -3.0 11 4 7 0 36.4 43.4 1.03 -1.73 2.76 23 PHI -3.5 10 3 6 1 35.0 37.1 -4.43 -3.40 -1.03 24 ATL -2.5 10 3 7 0 30.0 42.1 -2.41 -2.30 -0.11 25 NYG -2.5 10 3 7 0 30.0 33.2 -4.60 -4.10 -0.50 26 LAC -3.0 10 3 7 0 30.0 45.5 -0.99 -1.30 0.31 27 WAS -3.0 10 3 7 0 30.0 38.6 -4.92 -2.70 -2.22 28 DAL -6.0 10 3 7 0 30.0 24.8 -8.44 -8.30 -0.14 29 HOU -6.5 10 3 7 0 30.0 34.0 -3.79 -4.50 0.71 30 CIN -3.5 10 2 7 1 25.0 29.5 -6.12 -5.70 -0.42 31 JAX -9.0 10 1 9 0 10.0 19.4 -9.25 -9.60 0.35 32 NYJ -14.0 10 0 10 0 0.0 7.0 -13.62 -15.30 1.68
November 17, 2020
NFL Week 10, 2020 Season
Posted by foodnearsnellville under Data, Football, Statistics | Tags: median point spread, Pythagorean expectation, Simple Ranking System |Leave a Comment
I caught a bit of New England Baltimore and most of Minnesota – Chicago, both worth watching. For those wanting to use the data below to figure out the best team in the NFL, I’d say it gives you about 5 candidates. Kansas City looks like the best of these. Pythagoreans favor Pittsburgh, and the other three are some mix of New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Green Bay lags a little behind and Miami is rising with a bullet.
Global Statistics: Games Home Wins HwPct Winning_Score Losing_Score Margin 147 76 51.7 30.21 19.66 10.55 Calculated Pythagorean Exponent: 3.83 Rank Team Median GP W L T Pct Pred SRS MOV SOS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 PIT 7.0 9 9 0 0 100.0 85.4 7.72 11.11 -3.39 2 KC 14.0 9 8 1 0 88.9 84.7 9.94 11.44 -1.50 3 GB 9.0 9 7 2 0 77.8 69.3 5.79 5.89 -0.10 4 NO 3.0 9 7 2 0 77.8 71.6 8.98 6.44 2.53 5 TB 10.5 10 7 3 0 70.0 73.8 8.51 7.00 1.51 6 BUF 3.0 10 7 3 0 70.0 52.5 0.79 0.70 0.09 7 BAL 14.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 81.7 8.43 8.78 -0.35 8 MIA 8.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 77.4 6.40 7.67 -1.27 9 IND 8.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 76.8 4.19 7.22 -3.03 10 LA 7.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 72.4 3.69 5.33 -1.65 11 SEA 5.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 58.2 2.89 2.67 0.22 12 LV 5.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 55.4 3.43 1.56 1.87 13 ARI 3.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 71.2 3.67 6.22 -2.56 14 CLE 3.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 38.5 -3.88 -3.11 -0.77 15 TEN 2.0 9 6 3 0 66.7 55.5 0.22 1.56 -1.33 16 CHI -1.0 10 5 5 0 50.0 41.5 -0.41 -1.80 1.39 17 MIN -1.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 45.6 -0.35 -1.22 0.87 18 NE -3.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 39.6 -1.05 -2.44 1.40 19 DET -4.0 9 4 5 0 44.4 34.9 -3.85 -4.44 0.60 20 SF -4.5 10 4 6 0 40.0 51.6 1.07 0.40 0.67 21 PHI -2.0 9 3 5 1 38.9 37.5 -4.39 -3.22 -1.17 22 ATL -1.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 46.9 -2.26 -0.89 -1.37 23 DEN -5.0 9 3 6 0 33.3 23.3 -6.20 -7.56 1.36 24 NYG -2.5 10 3 7 0 30.0 32.5 -5.13 -4.10 -1.03 25 CAR -3.5 10 3 7 0 30.0 35.6 -0.10 -3.90 3.80 26 CIN -3.0 9 2 6 1 27.8 31.5 -5.10 -5.11 0.01 27 LAC -3.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 42.3 -0.15 -2.11 1.97 28 WAS -3.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 32.4 -6.06 -4.22 -1.84 29 DAL -7.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 20.6 -9.97 -9.56 -0.42 30 HOU -7.0 9 2 7 0 22.2 29.2 -4.49 -5.78 1.28 31 JAX -8.0 9 1 8 0 11.1 23.5 -8.16 -8.00 -0.16 32 NYJ -18.0 9 0 9 0 0.0 4.5 -14.16 -16.33 2.18
